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Belmont Preview 24th August news

Belmont Preview 24th August

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 23 August, 2019

Going to keep this short and sweet. Time isn’t on my side as I just spent the night watching one of the worst live sporting spectacles imaginable, that being the fourth string USA team toying with the Boomers. Ah well at least I can now say I’ve seen Mason Plumlee play.

Bit of rain around but clearing by Saturday, we should be racing on a Soft5. Rail at 10m, I’ve assumed the track will be playing fairly but the inside has been a bit dicey the last couple of Saturdays so it might pay to watch the first couple closely.

 

Race 5- On My Own

From speaking to my racing buddies and reading a couple of other previews it seems as though the whole of WA is on SHINJU. I have got a different read on the race.

Hard not to be impressed with LITTLE FISH last start. He was first up without a trial and after finding the breeze copped a tonne of pressure from Spirit And Fire who ended up leading while working three deep. Once he shook the on speed horses he rolled back to the fence which was the worst going that day and looked gone with 100m to go but dug deep to get the choccies and return a personal best figure. He should derive plenty of benefit from that hit out, gets in with the same weight after the claim, undefeated second up and is drawn to lob straight into the one by one.

WANNA BE GOOD was also impressive last start when resuming. Got back on a leader biased track at Northam but rattled home to just miss over 1000m which is well short of his pet distance. The step up to the 1200m and Pike going on both suit, watch for him late. No doubt SHINJU has undeniable claims, he really attacked the line last start which suggests he is ready for the 1200m and again is drawn to get the right run. Hard to beat but I’m just not convinced he is value at $2.50. TRAKIATO for fourth who didn’t have much luck last time in.

Going to stick to my guns here and have a go at LITTLE FISH, I think $4 is a good price but it seems SHINJU will be the popular elect so we might see better on the day. WANNA BE GOOD worth a saver.

Selections:

LITTLE FISH

WANNA BE GOOD

SHINJU

TRAKIATO

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins LITTLE FISH and $20 wins WANNA BE GOOD

 

Race 8- Flip Of The Coin

The two up and comers in this event look to have this race at their mercy. That being FREE TRADE vs SNOWCHINO and there is not much between them.

FREE TRADE was ridden with a sit last start and it worked a treat. Great ride by Parnham who kept picking off the runs when they appeared and he burst to the front smartly. What I really liked about the effort was he looked like he might get done on the line with 50m to go but once he saw Neurological he found another gear and kicked clear late. From barrier 5 he should get a lovely run just off a solid tempo and stepping up to the mile off a seven day back up looks ideal. Hard to beat if he isn’t ready for the paddock.

SNOWCHINO is absolutely humming. I was on The Fugazi last start and when he got her back the confidence levels where high but in the end he was no match. She ticks a lot of boxes here- light weight, low draw and she is just as effective if leading or taking a sit. This is her biggest test so far but she will rise to the occasion.

TAXANGO is another horse that is flying. He hasn’t been within cooee of the running rail all preparation but from gate 10 he probably tramps deep again while MIRACLE MAN didn’t have much luck behind Free Trade last start and maps to land on the favourite’s back. ABDICATOR can also improve after racing on the quicksand last start.

Think one of the top two picks win. Gun to head I’d have SNOWCHINO as the slightly better chance but she is $3 compared to FREE TRADE at $4.8 so I think he represents better value. For that reason I’ll lean that way for a result.

Selections:

FREE TRADE

SNOWCHINO

TAXAGANO

MIRACLE MAN

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins FREE TRADE and $25 wins SNOWCHINO

 

Race 9- Chloe In The Last

We’ve just seen Chloe Azzopardi take out the final event at Pinjarra and I think she can do the same at Belmont, albeit at a shorter quote.

I made a note to keep an eye on BOLD SUCCESS two runs ago when he got softened up in front and then had the tendency to pull. I may not have needed to as Blind Freddie couldn’t have missed his last run, got caught in the cheap seats in a hot tempo affair and has somehow kept kicking to run a drum. Seriously huge run and while the starting price profile isn’t strong it can be somewhat put down to racing against horses like Snowchino and The Fugazi who took up a large percentage of the market. Doesn’t have to run against anything of that calibre here and from gate 3 he should get the run of the race behind another hot tempo.

Very even when trying to pick the minor numbers here. BEAUCOUNT was also a big run in the same race and again will go forward and make his own luck while fellow on pacers BLACKWOOD RIVER and MISTY LAD warrant consideration.

Tough race to finish the day but I can’t dismiss BOLD SUCCESS’ last run and I won’t let him go around without some of mine. Tabtouch went up $13, I’m not sure we will see that again however it might pay to shop late. Pike doesn’t have a ride in the last so it’s over to you Chloe.

Selections:

BOLD SUCCESS

BEAUCOUNT

BLACKWOOD RIVER

MISTY LAD

Betting Strategy:

$30 wins BOLD SUCCESS and $10 wins BEAUCOUNT

38 Comments | 3 weeks ago

Recent Comments

User bigorangecat

bigorangecat 24 Aug | Posts: 35

1st1.?5.?9.?132ndS1.?83rdS24thS3Choice.

User bigorangecat

bigorangecat 24 Aug | Posts: 35

BTW Falconman.Thanks for tips on first page about TOS,DD and ML.Added Snowchino and Free Trade in a quartet for 2.08% at a cost of $2.Bingo bango. Picked up $56.30Cheers dude.

User bigorangecat

bigorangecat 24 Aug | Posts: 35

Falcon man. Did you multi them up?Would of been juicy.

User thefalcon

thefalcon 24 Aug | Posts: 15812

not religiously, bomber, only when I think he can win.

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 24 Aug | Posts: 7268

Well done Falc, good to see it get up and give you a few $$back as I know you follow it religiously

User thefalcon

thefalcon 24 Aug | Posts: 15812

couldn't do the card sonny, anybody who thinks they can back/tip 8 or 9 winners is in lala land.I learned a loooong time ago..be selective....I had 3 bets to day, fell for royal strata, silver and astronomite.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 24 Aug | Posts: 8607

Good effort the two faves Snowchino and Free Trade - top marks for consistency. Double Digit for Ash Maley looked a big hope at the 200, not far away in fourth spot. Great run. Terrific race and finish that one. Think Scott Embry tipped four or five wi...

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 24 Aug | Posts: 8607

Yep good call Falcon, 25/1 too - that'll do! Peter Hall back from Darwin Cup success, and bang does it again. He's the Nash Rawiller/Paddy Payne/Simon Marshall heavyweight Perth hoop. Whoever said Uni Time - " Railway Stakes horse" tell him he's dreamin! ...

User sonny

sonny 24 Aug | Posts: 616

Falc, You should get the gig for the Turf talk ...Well Done. Hope the the beers are flowing...

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 24 Aug | Posts: 1502

Well done Fal. A good win. Barrier 3 and 3 wide. Not having much luck Bold Success.