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Belmont Preview, 25th August news

Belmont Preview, 25th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 24 August, 2018

Race 1 - Broome To Belmont

Keen on the chances of Patristic in the first. Looked sharp in a debut trial nearly a year ago, before copping one of the toughest initiations to racing you will see. Was trod on, bumped around and spat at; eerie similarities to a night with Troy Buswell. Was understandably put away after that before Jayne Busslinger took him up North with her team for the Broome season. As we’ve seen with many a quality galloper (looking at the quality team Danny Morton took up this year), some just can’t handle the dirt and I don’t think this bloke did. Resumes on the back of a soft but brilliant trial in a sharp time for the day. Slightly disappointed with the $7.50 on offer (prior dirt form usually equates to a bigger quote), but I am still happy being on each way.

Gessato looks the major danger with the $7 lasting a matter of minutes. Has trialled in brilliant order twice, though there are some concerns where this Dick Turpin gelding maps for Lisa Staples from barrier 10. She may look to follow Patristic forward.

Dream Alliance and Second Vita have the runs on the board from a weak maiden formline a fortnight ago, while Moschard and Miss Mandy are both capable. It is important to note Troy Turner had the option of the ride on Miss Mandy ($5.50) and Patristic ($7.50) and opted for the latter.

Some aggression out the gates from Jagsy and we can jump in the queue nice and early.

Selections

7 Patristic
4 Gessato
3 Dream Alliance

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Patristic (7).

 

Race 2 - Tom’s Army

Finding it very difficult to split the top two in this so I’ve decided to go with Tom’s Army. Foot in both camps.

Red Army is clearly flying and has dealt with small fields with ease at his last two outings. At The Ready did give him some type of scare last start, though that galloper has to be coming toward the end of his preparation and was afforded the perfect ‘$1.35 stalking’ ride you could possibly get. Prying Tom is now appearing to be the real deal. Defeated Red Army in a race most of us put down to track conditions, before demolishing a Saturday class field at Pinjarra. Little bit disappointed to see Mitch Pateman lose the ride as he is comfortably our second best jockey at the minute, but in a small field Alan shouldn’t be able to do too much wrong.

Won’t be suggesting a bet in this race, though I do expect a bolter run from Woodsville. This 10 year old is really flying and hasn’t been suited at his last two outings over 1400m. Should be fitter, get a pretty easy time of it out in front and Autier is the right jockey to try and steal it if the others go to sleep. Think he’ll run third.

Selections

2 Red Army
4 Prying Tom
3 Woodsville

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 - VelaNoGo

Could have done a lot better with the race name. Velago went up a $2.10 favourite which meant big prices elsewhere. Unfortunately it has been withdrawn early and the prices are in the process of being amended. There is no way this barrier rogue could have won this 1000m scamper, so it is quite a shame for the value shoppers out there.

Justin Warwick noted that Lady Le Jean was going to trial again, but they opted for a ‘paid trial’ (my words not his) in a mediocre 1000m dash. Was one of the better runs in the race and you’d suspect it will be a lot more forward here. Can occasionally bomb the start, but if utilising the good draw and stalking the leaders, should be the one finishing over the top of them.

Mantime was our suggested bet a fortnight ago when $8.50 to $5 before a mishap on the way to the course required a few late gear changes. Always a concern. Appeared to have every chance in running, but the Patapus/Dia De La Raza form, while not being lightning does appear quite strong. Should work up to the breeze outside It’s Got It All and this might be his best spot. Is a bit of a tease horse.

Fire Maker is another who can do things wrong out of the steel jaws, though again if utilising the favourable alley and being in the first six in running, is capable of knocking past this lot. It’s Got It All will be in front with 100m to go - that’s when the big questions are asked. Would relish this race over the 930m at Narrogin.

Selections

8 Lady Le Jean
5 Mantime
4 Fire Maker

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 - Bubbling

Simon Miller’s Double Bubble is bubbling along better than a 2014 Todd Carney. Undefeated in two trials and two race starts, this Unencumbered filly loves to jump, run and then really stretch out late. She will relish the step up in distance. The $1.75 is probably as short as you’d want to take with a few promising types engaged, but she should lead and win.

I really liked the debut run of Ebony Magi. Went back to last, before circling the field before the bend and narrowly missing Kakadu. Kakadu went around 4 days later when running a game second to Flirtini. Should get a better run from the alley here and if the favourite has any chinks in her armour, could be the one giving her a scare. Around $15 each way does look a tempting quote.

Like a lot of promising two year olds, Amelia’s La Bout doesn’t look like she has come back the same horse. Rebel Knight, Pagan Image, Dashio and even Classic Pro round out an intriguing juvenile event with a heap of contrasting form lines. Double Bubble should be too strong however.

Selections

1 Double Bubble
5 Ebony Magi
2 Rebel Knight

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Double Bubble (1).

 

Race 5 - Steele’s Serenade

Seaside Serenade was a Carnarvon and Geraldton battler before joining Steele Casey’s stable. Since joining the up and coming stable, this Myboycharlie mare has grown a leg. 3 wins and a third (one length behind Roganella) have come from the five outings under Steele’s tutelage, though two of those wins were later taken away due to positive swab tests. I always have a bit of trepidation with taking a young apprentice on a sit and sprinter, but with only 52.5kg’s on it’s back and a good draw, if Mollie can find daylight early in the straight I think she will be far too good for this lot. Around $6 looks a nice each way price.

Capricorn Dancer is absolutely flying, though is likely to be giving the lightly weighted Seaside Serenade too much of a head start, while Bold Success should be going very close from barrier 1. His last two efforts have been full of merit in conditions which did not suit.

Mollie did it for us last weekend with Kensington Abbey and I am happy backing her in again here.

Selections

9 Seaside Serenade
8 Bold Success
3 Capricorn Dancer

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Seaside Serenade (9).

 

Race 6 - Form Frenzy

I found this an awfully difficult race to decipher.

I now have the ability to refer to the market, but when creating my own on Wednesday evening I found it awfully difficult to place a horse who was stepping up from a class one to a 72+ at the head of the market. Crystal Spirit is not your average ‘class one’ winner however. He had been racing in quality three year old events over East before adding to the plethora of Gangemi imports to taste success on debut in the state. The Patrocity form does look OK after that galloper comfortably broke his maiden status last weekend, but the simple question is - would the rest of these gallopers beat Patrocity by nearly four lengths? I think they would.

For that reason alone, I find it awfully hard to consider taking the $2.40 currently on offer. In saying that, he is my on top selection and is clearly the horse with the most scope in this event, the quote just looks a bit thin for the class rise.

Helm’s Gate isn’t an overly ‘fashionable’ galloper and for that reason alone tends to start a lot longer in the market than he should. Sat 3 and 4 deep the trip at his most recent outing when nobbled late by Grey Enigma and before that was only beaten by Seeker and Abdicator in an event which has proven to be a good form race. With a stack of speed engaged in this event he can probably take a sit here. At around the $20 mark, clearly looks the each way value for this event.

You can make a case for every other runner. Cracking race.

Selections

10 Crystal Spirit
6 Helms Gate
5 Battle Brewing

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Helms Gate (6).

 

Race 7 - Mitch’s Mile

The Peninsula mile has brought together a really competitive field with plenty of contrasting form lines. I’ve been following Fontainebleau all campaign and think it has found a race it can dominant from the front. The appointment of Mitch Pateman, who could ride a broomstick to victory at the moment, only adds to my confidence. In a race devoid of a huge amount of top end speed, This Alfred Nobel mare should be able to work her way to the front. She settled further back than anticipated at her most recent outing when finding a gap late and hitting the line better than the in form Battle Torque. She is a better horse when rolling along in front. At $9, really happy having something each way.

Atlanta Blue was our best of the week a fortnight ago when a dominant victor over Friaresque. As expected, was afforded all the favours that day with a low weight, but is again drawn to get the pie run and has been well managed by Jason Pateman this campaign.

State Prosecutor is clearly the best horse in this race and if finding the right cart up from last into the race will be awfully hard to hold out late. I suspect Willie Pike might look for the run on Battle Torque’s back who will no doubt be winding up down the centre of the track.

Prize Catch and Dark Musket are not impossibilities in another brilliant little field.

Selections

8 Fontainebleau
9 State Prosecutor
7 Atlanta Blue

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Fontainebleau (8).

 

Race 8 - Vaughn’s Gold

Luke’s Gold has been slowly building all campaign and finally looks to have found the right race to break through. Was well supported at his most recent outing when a fast finishing fourth to Battle Torque and the appointment of Patty Carbery as well as the addition of the blinkers from a better gate, all look to be in this Fath geldings favour. Previous runs against the likes of Battle Torque, Tellem We’re Comin & Abdicator were all far slicker events than this. Midnight Sky is your $2.70 favourite from barrier 14 - it says a bit about the depth in this event.

I’d be grabbing as many brown paper bags as you can find as the $9.50 currently on offer is tremendous shopping. Giddyup.

Vaughn Sigley’s other runner; Gomer Wipple, to me looks his biggest danger. Forget he went around last start when being held up to the 200m before losing interest on a rain affected track. Is far better on top of the ground, is drawn to sit in the first 6 and at $35 each way is another which I will be having something on. Think Vaughn can steal the quinella at around $100 here. There will be some carry on from @PerthRacingGuru if this were to occur.

Not even going to talk about the rest of the horses in this event - my blinkers are on.

Selections

4 Luke’s Gold
10 Gomer Wipple
2 Tonkatuff

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Luke’s Gold (4). 20 wins Gomer Wipple (10).  

8 Comments | 4 weeks ago

Recent Comments

User fastimesincabra

fastimesincabra 27 Aug | Posts: 12

Good tipping Piker and OP. Bit surprised nothing in stewards report about Reykjavic leading from b11 . 

User paraletic

paraletic 25 Aug | Posts: 2793

Good run by fair sonari considering it was given absolutely no hope in the run

User rooboy

rooboy 25 Aug | Posts: 1244

^^^^^^ Get on Lukes Gold bud and thro in Gomer for a Ticki!

User rooboy

rooboy 25 Aug | Posts: 1244

^^^^^^^^Prize Catch mate!

User rooboy

rooboy 25 Aug | Posts: 1244

Hard race but leading with Capricorn Dancer and Gangbuster.

User RightOakAunt

RightOakAunt 25 Aug | Posts: 23

Going to have something on Pagan Image

User piker

piker 25 Aug | Posts: 168

Here is The Other Belmont Preview!\R/1 I like the Dream horse becos of his new trainer mainly.The Savabeels are good looking horses and the improvement may be great from the stable.I have had a tickle a place in an all up.R/2 Logic tells you the top trainers h...

User udontknow

udontknow 24 Aug | Posts: 393

OUR MATE BOOTS PRYING TOM NIGHT VOYAGE DOUBLE BUBBLE MISS SONDRIO BATTLE BREWING ATLANTA BLUE PALACE ROUGE