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Belmont Preview, 28th July news

Belmont Preview, 28th July

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 27 July, 2018

Race 1 – Pike’s Army

After a fairly wet and wild Wednesday, we have some relief from the inclement weather with a semi-dry forecast for a brilliant card of weekend racing. In fact, the card of racing appears to be that good I am going to drop the wise guy routine and actually try and talk some sense about horse racing.

I am going to allow for a Soft5 with the small amount of rain forecast from Thursday through Saturday, though with the track reaching the Heavy8 mark for the last event on Wednesday, it might be a bit choppy. Our trusty curator has however done a brilliant job with the rail back at the true position this week – the first time we’ve raced in that position for a month.

When assessing the fields pre-markets, I concluded that Red Army was the horse to beat – not necessarily on form, but on the ‘upside’ theory as well as all the ingredients for a great meal – Pike, inside gate, low weight. I was not thinking $1.45 type short. While this will be my on top selection, this is a ridiculous quote.

Last time out Dudemanbro ran second to Gatting in a listed event. He was 3.8 lengths ahead off the third placed horse – At The Ready. At, HIS previous start he pushed Material Man to 1.5 lengths at Weight For Age. This isn’t complex form, but common sense. That is really strong form. While Red Army looks a horse on the rise, he was beaten by Prying Tom. Yes, he was racing on rain affected going, but you’ve got to be knocking off Prying Tom to be $1.45 in this. With absolutely no offence to the connections of Prying Tom, they are not pushing Material Man to a length and a half.

I’m going to leave him on top with Dudemanbro drawing awkwardly and earning a bit of a bridesmaid tag (five 2nds at his last 6 starts), but if you are a price punter and you are talking $1.45 v $5, it really is a no-brainer.

Selections

6 Red Army
3 Dudemanbro
2 At The Ready

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 2 – Happy Birthday

As we enter the final metro two-year-old race for the season, we wish all our much loved nags, a happy birthday.

The Velvet King was not suited at his most recent outing when challenged early and ultimately taking a sit. He looked a little cross that he wasn’t allowed to just roll along, and I have no doubt in this race devoid of speed, he should be able to do just that. Mitch will either lob him outside of Kelly’s Callisto or even take that consistent Planet Five gelding on and go to the top. I expect those two to fight out the finish.

Angelic Ruler is clearly the danger if they overcook it, though from barrier 9 she will likely be a long way back. There is some concern with the rail going back to the true position that we may see some rail and on pace bias.

Classic Pro is racing really well, and while conditions don’t suit here, she is one worth throwing in your longer exotics at around $40.

Selections

2 The Velvet King
1 Kelly’s Callisto
3 Angelic Ruler

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 3 – Forgiveness

This is a cracking three-year-old event, with a stack of contrasting form lines made all that more difficult to dissect by the recent spate of inclement weather. I feel the need to touch on each horse here.

Electric Light has opened your $2.30 favourite and while we will all agree she was something beaten at her last effort, you still need to ask exactly what she has done. Both of her debut wins were from barrier 1 when utilizing the cutaway. She looked good both times and Glasgow Girl has since made that form look a little bit better. But she didn’t go around a horse. Even dissecting the Glasgow Girl form lines a little bit closer you’ll see that galloper was knocked off by Captain Stirling who was flat out uncompetitive in the three-year-old events, and then fell in against More Bxaar who isn’t currently in line for WA Horse Of The Year. You can have your $2.30.

Yindi was over rated from a maiden win and I am one of the many guilty of that. Too often we are expecting dominant maiden and lowly classed winners to do a similar thing in a far higher grade. Put nearly any horse in this race in Yindi’s spot in his maiden and they do a very similar demolition job. Put nearly any horse in Electric Light’s position from her two initial victories and they do a similar job. Food for thought.

Reykjavik is not suited from 7. I presume the tactics will be to push forward, but he still isn’t a colt I am sold on, needs a lot to go right. Perceptive Miss was a huge run behind Misty Metal when racing in restricted room. She has looked like a filly who likes room and to wind up into her races. While I don’t think the 1300m is long enough for her in a race of this class, she is one to keep an eye on going forward. Arrum Boy was huge at his most recent effort. The gate is cruel here, but he is far better suited at the 1300m. He will likely have to go back and in a race which looks devoid of top end speed that could be the death knell to his winning chances.

I’ve found it difficult to split my on top selections, but I have given the nod to Street Fury over Pearl Trade. On the surface Street Fury’s most recent effort looks disappointing. She had a nice run in transit, peeled out and seemed to be left flat footed. This is a characteristic of the horse though, she does seem to take a few strides to find that gear – acceleration is not her strength. With Resistance and Pearl Trade accelerating and both laying in on her, she was squeezed out and not given the few strides she needs to find that top gear. If you watch the final 100m of that event, she was coming again and was going just as well, if not better than those in front of her under minimal riding. From barrier 1, she should sit on the back of the not so likely leader in Fair Sonari or Reykjavik and be given every chance. They could even lead on her. Pearl Trade was coming off a month between runs when tiring on a sustained run. From the better gate she should sit midfield and have to unleash a shorter sharper sprint with a higher fitness base.

Happy backing both on a win only basis. Suspect Street Fury trades a lot higher than the $6.50 currently on offer, so I would be waiting on her.

Selections

1 – Street Fury
3 – Pearl Trade
2 – Arrum Boy

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Street Fury (1). 40 wins Pearl Trade (3).
 

Race 4 – Less Words

Raise A Smile and Universal Warrior are your two short priced favourites. Neither can win. How is Raise A Smile $2.90 from barrier 11 with Pike jumping ship? I haven’t been this baffled since Chris Mayne was given a four year contract at Collingwood. Universal Warrior at least has a lot of potential upside, but this is major step up in grade from a mediocre maiden. There is value galore here, it just needs to be found.

The speed is only reasonable, but is not the strongest in this which should allow some ground to be made. Mantime is the interesting runner and following betting moves may be the best guide, it has the potential to blouse this lot and the $9 currently on offer could look ridiculous come jump. Us peasants can all wait for ‘them’ and see what ‘they’ do.

I am happy going slightly further afield and am very keen on the chances of Imperial Venus. Is tasked with one of the toughest jobs in racing – being a sit and sprinter over the short journeys, but is a horse which often goes under the radar. 3 wins from 13 career outings and placings on two Saturday’s (including a month ago when third to Misty Metal after being last on the bend). I really like the appointment of in the in form and strong Mitchell Pateman. If he can find a spot in the three-wide line, he will have a quicker last 200m than the majority of these.

At $26, this looks a great each way investment.

Selections

4 Imperial Venus
2 Mantime
8 Glimmer Girl

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 40 places Imperial Venus (4).
 

Race 5 – Loyal Pike

It’s all about Pikey isn’t it?

In recent weeks we’ve seen a very loyal William Pike jump off a few winners to stick with the cerise and white of Bob Peters. Come Play With Me (State Prosecutor) and Red Army (New Age) are the two which come to mind and we might be adding Kia Ora Star to that list. He was a dominant winner under Pike’s guidance first up, when demolishing a reasonable bunch of gallopers at Pinjarra. This is a step up in class, but not necessarily a step too far.

Pike does stick with the Bob Peter’s owned Midnight Sky and from the good draw is clearly a winning hope. Always hard to have a huge amount of confidence in horses dropping back so far in distance (2200 to 1400), but she is from the right stable to achieve it. I don’t think this is one of Bob’s more promising gallopers and I think we might see her get beaten here. It would be no surprise to see her drift in the market (currently around $3) and be replaced as favourite by Kia Ora Star.

I won’t be suggesting an early bet in this event, but if the day does look to be suiting horses racing on pace, then Spillinova should be your first investment. Didn’t handle a bog track two starts back, before jumping back on the dry going and running his rivals ragged. Drawn to hold the front here and is well worth an each way ticket if you sense a pattern developing.

Jenabel is absolutely flying with her last win being the best of her three on the bounce. From the good draw, she can make it four in a row.

Selections

5 Kia Ora Star
9 Jenabel
6 Spillinova

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 6 – Under The Odds

Abdicator looked a sound investment seven days ago and there is no doubt this Universal Ruler gelding will attract a lot of support again. I made the comment post-race and will again question exactly how bad the inside of the Belmont track was. I am completely aware the best going would not have been hugging the rail, but the determination to be 5 to 15 horses wide around the bend seemed mind boggling. You need to look at it in a ‘what is lost by going wide v what is gained by staying inside’ mentality, and it simply was not a 10 length turn around, as witnessed by Abdicator’s demolition. The fact that One Short and Greco (the only other two horses to not look for parking spots) ran the placings shows it was probably an over exaggeration. This to me has made Abdicator’s win look better than it was, which then leads to him being under the odds at $1.90 here. We got there eventually.

To summarize the above – it probably wins but is absolutely no value at the current quote. So, let’s find some value.

Astronomite’s effort in the same race as Abdicator was phenomenal. He was the absolute widest runner on straightening and passed ‘the second race’ if you like with a blistering final 400m. He is a horse who tends to begin a lot better than he did that day and if he can make use of the good barrier and massive weight swing on Abdicator (6kg’s) then the gap between the two prices of $1.90 & $31 looks a tad large.

See Me Sizzle is the second runner I’ll be suggesting a small play on. Has drawn horribly here, though is the only real speed in this race, so with a clean getaway can do as he pleases out in front. I really liked his previous runs under Shelby Colgate and the only horse to beat him home a fortnight ago was Tellem We’re Comin. Again, with any sort of pace bias around the $31 on offer quickly halves in price.

Ragnar’s Saga, Tonkatuff and Kensington Abbey are three more horses in this who are in seriously good form – I think you’ll find this race to be a great form reference going forward.

Selections

9 See Me Sizzle
1 Astronomite
2 Abdicator

Suggested Bet: 10 wins and 30 places See Me Sizzle (9). 10 wins and 30 places Astronomite (1).
 

Race 7 – Broken Record

I’ve just realised, I’ve sat here knocking (the prices) of nearly every single William Pike runner. In a battle of the outspoken tipster v William Pike, it tends to end sadly for the former.

Anyway, that trend is going to continue here. Tellem We’re Comin is clearly the best horse in this race, there is no doubt about that. But he is also back down to a sprinting trip after taking the entirety of the 1600m to wind up at his previous two outings. This son of Blackfriars is a horrible beginner. Dropping back to the 1300m from the inside gate in a race with a reasonable amount of speed engaged, he could be 4 or 5 horses back the fence. Tough spot to be when you are a long way down from your prepared trip. This is me not saying ‘it can’t win’, just again you’ll be taking the $1.85 without me.

Flying Time is not renowned for ‘holding form’, but that is exactly what this rising 8-year-old is currently doing. His last three efforts have been phenomenal and from the good draw with the low weight should have a fair head start on the favourite.

I made up a lot of new swear words after Max Almighty’s last outing and was on the Mi Goreng noodles (12 packets for $4 @ Coles) for a fair while after that. It goes against most of the things I like to stand for when punting, but at $10 each way here it is nearly impossible to go past a horse which is going better than 99% of others in this state. The young apprentice from a wide gate on a back marker who isn’t utilizing her entire claim – usually a firm, no. But Max is going to get me again. I am hoping with youngsters Witten and Kirby riding Meteoroid and Our Finest Moment from awkward gates, that one of them will lead up, what should hopefully be, a relatively strong three wide line. If Emma can find the back of this line and just get wide and let Max sprint, he can finish over the top of this lot. He is absolutely flying.

If not, it’s back to the Mi Goreng.

Selections

8 Max Almighty
6 Flying Time
4 Tellem We’re Comin

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Max Almighty (8).
 

Race 8 – Wolfe’s Warrior

A long and what I pre-empt to be an eventful day on the punt comes to an end with what looks like a nice little each way investment in Minus Looks. Had he drawn inside 5, I would have labelled him the best of the day, but Glenn Smith fresh off his midweek winners will be aiming to slot this Steve Wolfe trained gelding, somewhere just off the pace and should be too strong for this lot late if doing so.

The pace in this event will be frenetic with Helm’s Gate, A Knight Of Pro, Pinsson, Flying Roar, Baraki Beats and Forseen all horses who like to roll. There should be a three wide line and the fitness which Minus Looks possesses, as long as Smith finds cover throughout, should be enough to get him over the high volume top end speed.

Kiss The Breeze is a really interesting runner, but there is no way I could take $3.50 about a two year old in a Saturday metro event. So yes, I am finishing the day by taking on another Pike favourite.

I’ll see you all at Centrelink.

Selections

6 Minus Looks
2 Pinsson
12 Bold Success

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Minus Looks (6). 

5 Comments | 2 months ago

Recent Comments

User thefalcon

thefalcon 29 Jul | Posts: 15102

:-? Mmm, might put a different twist on Thursday..... :D

User TheDiva

TheDiva 29 Jul | Posts: 9916

Race 4 =D> Outstanding!

User thefalcon

thefalcon 28 Jul | Posts: 15102

^^ got 51's fixed...plus the quinella a few times...missed the exacta..brain fade...

User SKIDS

SKIDS 28 Jul | Posts: 629

Race 8 # 8 :-S

User rooboy

rooboy 28 Jul | Posts: 1245

The Velvet King leads and wins.Night Voyage form says it will improve today.Kensington Abbey.Flying TimeMinus Looks Best Bet!