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Belmont Preview 3rd August news

Belmont Preview 3rd August

Daniel Cripps | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 2 August, 2019

The first metro meeting of the new season has unfortunately produced what looks to be a very quiet betting affair. Some uninspiring races mixed in with the chance of a thunderstorm, it may be a better afternoon to be a duck than a punter. I went to bed last night thinking the Aussies were on the way to being rolled for 150 odd and that I’d be going back to the well and tipping one in the last with a degree of confidence. It was beautiful awakening to the news of Sir Steven’s heroics but on the flip side seeing the price of FREE TRADE had done a Houdini. He looked a nice bet at close to $4 but the new quote of $2.30 is poison and I couldn’t back him with stolen money in a race that has plenty of depth.

The rail goes to the 2m position which should ensure an even track with all runners getting their chance dependant on the tempo. I’d imagine race 1 will be run on a soft5 but could deteriorate throughout the meeting as the rain comes. On a day I found it difficult in finding some suggested bets, there is one absolute special on the card that we can have a crack at, chips in anyone?

 

Race 5- Master vs Apprentice

Not a heap of speed in this race and for that reason I’m happy to side with the likely leader PLAY HARD. Dropped back to the mile after a decent effort in the Aquanita Stakes, on that occasion he beat all bar the in form Lordhelpmerun. He drops in grade and is well weighted after Mollie Clark’s claim who has a good relationship with the galloper. From gate 12 Mollie should be able to work across to take up the running and from there he will be pretty hard to get past.

If they are making ground then FOUR WHITE FOX looks to be the main danger. He put in a real eye catcher first up with the apprentice engaged and then it was no surprise to see him further elevate second up with Pike jumping on. He was probably a good thing beat that day after finding some traffic issues in the straight. The fact he was scratched from a winnable race last week is a slight concern but Durrant is the master of keeping them fit and providing he is ready to go then look for Pike to be settling off them and rattling home at the business end of proceedings.

BLACK SHADOW broke through for a much deserved win last start after a luckless preparation. Jason Brown might even try and hold the front from the inside marble otherwise elect to sit behind the leader, he should get every chance from either scenario while MULGA got caught deep last start and is more than capable of pinching a race like this at big odds if he produces his best.

There are a couple of queries in the race so it’s not a huge confidence play but at the current prices or better I’m happy to have a wager on PLAY HARD and to a lesser extent FOUR WHITE FOX.

Selections:

PLAY HARD

FOUR WHITE FOX

BLACK SHADOW

MULGA

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins PLAY HARD and $20 wins FOUR WHITE FOX

 

 

Race 6- All In

On a tough betting day there is an absolute stand out. They should motor here with AY TEE EMM attempting to cross the goldfields galloper WOCKNWOLL.

This sets the race up perfectly for LIPSTICK FLICKERS. She looked the winner last start in a narrow defeat finishing next to horses like Flower Of War and Essential Spice, both would be a short price favourite in a race like this. From barrier 3 the in form Brodie Kirby will have her just behind the hot speed and she looks superbly weighted in this grade after the claim.

The obvious second pick is UNI TIME. He backed up a solid trial with an encouraging first up victory, while he was suited by the track bias that day he definitely won with a bit in reserve. He is another runner who will appreciate the genuine tempo and look for him to finish hard. One that could be the knock out hope is WHY CHOOSE HER. She would have gone into a lot of black books off her last start effort where she exploded after finally finding some clear galloping room. While her starting price profile isn’t great she can run a big race at an each way quote for those looking to bet around the top two in the market. They look the three hopes, I’ll throw AY TEE EMM in for fourth as he is the likely leader and ran well on the severely inferior inside pad last start.

I can’t find a chink in armour of LIPSTICK FLICKERS. Has a clear ratings edge on this field, maps to perfection, will appreciate any sting out of the ground and is thrown in at the weight after the claim. She is currently fighting UNI TIME for favouritism with both gallopers around the $2.70 mark. I expect her to be a clear elect come tomorrow. Beg, borrow and steal.

Selections:

LIPSTICK FLICKERS

UNI TIME

WHY CHOOSE HER

AY TEE EMM

Betting Strategy:

$100 wins LIPSTICK FLICKERS

35 Comments | 3 months ago

Recent Comments

User thefalcon

thefalcon 03 Aug | Posts: 15894

0 out of 5 Gary...very poor.I fell off the wagon...1 bet ...taxi in the last....

User GaryH

GaryH 03 Aug | Posts: 1004

would be one of the worse programs for a very long time.8 mystery trifectas is the shot...betting is only for the desperate.Has someone stolen your Toffee's today Falc?You are in a right old mood today about the meeting!I will put my 5 leg Multi up for you tom...

User paraletic

paraletic 03 Aug | Posts: 3226

I was on roger. My money stopped it dead lads. Cramped at the start very bad, should have won in hindsight

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 03 Aug | Posts: 8991

Did you notice Roger The Roman bomber ? Very good second in the Parmeston Sprint Darwin.

User Whatisthepoint

Whatisthepoint 03 Aug | Posts: 19

In love with Paris  gets life from  me never again cant run  a place off a rails run very very average,

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 03 Aug | Posts: 7480

Bang Taxagano :) Got a good slice of the quarter thanks to Terry as well Life is good

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 03 Aug | Posts: 1504

Almost the get out stakes. Pity Chix got in a bumping dual.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 03 Aug | Posts: 8991

Profit Street similar to last campaign - gets run off his feet, and when being let down to chime in - finds little. Not every day can back a horse at 5/1 that should be 25/1! Gosh he's been average.

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 03 Aug | Posts: 1504

Just back from having a hit and should have stayed out. Defiantly given no chance. Can't be bothered going back and checking but don't think Friar's Gift has ever wanted to lead before,certainly not at that speed.Uni Time was impressive.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 03 Aug | Posts: 8991

Make no mistake - this guy is open class in the making - Uni Time will graduate to the top! Perfect ride by the hoop too. Couldn't quite work out the fuss about Broome ? Wasn't it on Sky2 ? It's difficult enough to call one race at a time.