Belmont Preview, 4th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 3 August, 2018

 Race 1 – Flat

I’m a little bit disappointed. A seven race Saturday metro card (which includes a maiden) after a midweek abandonment which can best be described by the technical term: ‘a total cock-up’. The track was deemed safe and fair at 8am when scratching’s were announced. The track was still determined to be fine for racing when the abandonment was made official around 10am, with the weather forecast being the reasoning behind calling it off. I’m no meteorologist, but a quick look at the radar around this time suggested the earlier forecast was going to miss us. As it did. Management themselves said we only need a half hour or so of dry conditions for racing to go ahead. We had exactly 1mm of rain from 9am to 6.20pm. The fact we got to 10am without an abandonment, by that stage it was late enough to see if the weather came and if it did and the track becomes unsafe for jockeys or horses, then abandon immediately. I think all racing participants would have understood this. At the end of the day by 10am all pine poles would have been consumed and horses ready to run.

Now that I’ve once again endeared myself with the hierarchy at Perth Racing, let’s take a brief look at an uninspiring maiden.

Polite Pass looks a standout with William Pike on board from the good draw. Loomed up at Northam a fortnight ago like she was going to win by a couple of lengths, but either ran out of condition or did her best Street Bandit imitation when she realised she was going to be in front of all the other horses. Hopefully for connections sake it was not the latter and with that run under her belt she should be hard to beat here.

Really liked the last few runs of Tortina. While the drop back in distance won’t suit, the good barrier draw will where she should be able to find a nice spot in running. Chris Willis does a good job with the small team he has.

Selections

9 Polite Pass
8 Tortina
7 San Crispino

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 2 – Big Wet

I found this a really difficult race to dissect, with all 9 runners some type of hope. Big Caroline is a total swimmer. Her effort behind Count Tomoz Off really showcased that, making the type of flashing run we did not see much of throughout the day. She will be aided by the drop back to 54kg’s here, though barrier 1 may not be a blessing for her. She is a mare who tends to like to wind up into her races, while the Wizard from barrier 1 tends to like to wait for gaps to appear. It is an interesting combination. She has not won a race in the city since 2016 and that was a midweek class 3. Usually I would just about discount her in a 72+, but this is not the strongest 72+ you will come across. The track is currently a Soft6 and if this rating worsens to a Soft7 or higher, I suspect she will be awfully hard to beat. I also think back to her run against Enticing Star three runs back when she ran a quicker last 200m then that super mare. That tell’s a story on it’s own.

The Celt is on the 6-day back-up from a fairly tough trial where he was ridden right out to the line by Alan Kennedy. I’m not a huge fan on the short back-up for sprinters and with the 59.5kg’s think his race might be a few weeks away. Count Tomoz Off was a boom youngster who never quite hit the predicted heights. Appeared to love the wet weather at his most recent appearance and I would expect to see similarly aggressive tactics here. Isn’t the sharpest beginner however, so will want the likes of The Celt to not have a desperation to hold the front.

One Short has been up since January and is a model of consistency, while Get Over It is a really interesting runner for the Jim Taylor yard. I dare say if there is any type of confidence within the camp then the $9 quote currently on offer won’t hang around. Bombs Away is a horse who can mix his form and is not impossible at around the $30 quote. A good competitive race that I will be happy staying out of.

Selections

8 Count Tomoz Off
7 Big Caroline
5 Bombs Away

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 3 – Heave Ho

What a fitting tip this will be on the day before we finally get to honour Ben Allan, with the inaugural naming of the Glendinning-Allan medal. All that whacking away at your keyboards on various social media forums finally paid off Freo fans, well done!!

With a 6 out of 10 ride from Andrew Castle and a reasonably fair Belmont track, Freo should have one win this weekend. Coming off a 7-week break, over the mile on a rain affected track, this son of Izmir had every right to put in ‘just a run’. His effort however was huge behind Battle Torque who is race fit and in career best form. He should strip a lot fitter for that run and if he can get a reasonable cart up into the race from last (where he should be ridden), he should be reeling off a last sectional capable of knocking past this lost.

Fair Sonari looks the biggest danger, with a lot of that down to racing pattern. Has raced extremely well in top three-year-old company in recent weeks and will appreciate the step up to the mile here. Will go forward from the gate and if there appears to be any type of on speed bias in the first couple of events, this is probably the way to go at around $7 each way.

Massachusetts is an interesting runner. Lindsey Smith has been loath to push this Stratum mare out beyond 1400m, but when looking at her overall record it is hard to see why. She has raced at 1400m on 5 occasions for 2 wins and a further placing. Comparing this to her overall record off 33 starts for 4 wins and 12 further placings, it shows that perhaps she needs the ground. It’ll be really interesting to see how she goes at her first attempt at the mile. Could be rattling late.

Happy suggesting a bet on Freo, but I would be wanting a tick over the $3 mark to come at a backmarker on a rain affected track. Be open to the late switch to Fair Sonari if the track dictates.

Selections

2 Freo
1 Fair Sonari
6 Massachusetts

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Freo (2).

Race 4 – Miller’s Move

Listening to the Simon Miller camp during the week, it sounds as though Caipirinha will be ridden cold, with the possibility of extending out to the 1400-1600m as her campaign progresses. Regardless of the tactics, she already presented as the lay of the day with the 59kgs. The often well supported Nicconi mare has never carried weight with success and looking at her results vs. her consistent SP’s, you’d have to suggest she is a little over rated by punters/connections.

I was hoping we would see her go up a silly quote, but unfortunately, I think the corporate’s have got it spot on here with Super Maxi your $2.40 favourite. He blitzed his rivals on his state debut, before going down valiantly to the very smart Ambiente, beating home Fabergino in the process. From barrier 1, he should be able to hold the front but with the likely pace from More Aces, It’s It and if I have read it wrong, Caipirinha, he also has the option to hand up and take a trail. He has good wet track form and the 54kg’s looks a luxury. Looks the best bet of the day.

Yeah Dardy was huge first up when chasing hard behind Undisclosed and Floyd. Was a real eye-catcher that race. Does stand to go up about 15 rating’s points if successful here, but from the draw, with the suspected tempo of this event, is not without a chance.

A nice little sprint.

Selections

6 Super Maxi
8 Yeah Dardy
4 Flying Time

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Super Maxi (6).

Race 5 – No Fire All Rain

Fire And Rain looks hard to tip against in this 1000m scamper. Was edged out in a battle royale down the straight against Essential Spice, when conceding that filly 5.5kgs. Drops to the luxury weight of 54kg’s here. I did worry about these new three-year old’s racing in open company, but after watching Kiss The Breeze last week (who looked to be bolting), my concerns are mostly alleviated. Fire And Rain also has the luxury of being a horse who simply needs to run time out in front over the 1000m. With the likes of Undisclosed, League Of Nations & Sharpbob engaged, this Oratorio colt will want a crisp beginning to have it his own way out in front.

Epic Grey looks the biggest danger after a nice trial 6 days ago. Does have to contend with the big weight and sticky gate and every speed map I come up with ends with him leading the 3 wide line. I see it hard for him to handle the weight and tougher run while conceding Fire And Rain 5.5kgs.

The $3.30 on offer for Fire And Rain looks fairly good shopping for a horse who should make all of his own luck.

Selections

7 Fire And Rain
1 Epic Grey
2 I Am Incredible

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Fire And Rain (7).

Race 6 – Gangemi’s Spirit

I often allude to the success the Gangemi’s have with their Eastern State’s purchases and this Bel Esprit gelding profiles to be another one on that production line. I’m not a ‘follow the money’ style punter, but the early move when markets opened on Thursday afternoon suggested somebody was keen to be on board Crystal Spirit ($4 to $2.60). Her form over East looks more than adequate for a race of this nature.

Reykjavik is absolutely flying but is cruelled by a barrier draw. I find it hard to place him in this speed map, with going back to last or sitting wide the two likely outcomes. I am unsure if he can win from either of those two spots. One to watch ‘next start’.

Friar Away & Glimmer Girl look to round out the chances in a race lacking a great deal of depth.

Selections

6 Crystal Spirit
8 Glimmer Girl
4 Reykjavik

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 – The End

I don’t think I have ever been less excited for a Belmont race card. After tipping an array of value last week, I have struggled to find a suggested bet above $3.30 and it doesn’t get much better in the last.

The more I look at the final event of the day, the more I convince myself that Prying Tom is a good thing. His run’s this campaign have been nothing short of massive and this is an easier assignment than his most recent outing when defeating the very smart Red Army and No Say In It after being held up at a crucial stage in the straight. Red Army has clearly franked that form.

First and second up he flashed on unsuitable leader bias tracks in absolute eye catchers over the 1400m. He then stepped up to 2000m from the 1400m when racing closer to the speed and boxing on admirably in a race run at a farcical speed. The fitness he derived from that run was on show next start, when his usual sit and sprint tactics were employed, when beating the aforementioned horses. I don’t think the extra 2kg’s is a major worry and if he holds that form, he will be extremely hard to hold out over the final 200m.

Paddy’s Shadow is the interesting runner here after dropping out of the listed three-year-old staying events. Had zero luck on both occasions and will appreciate the good barrier draw and appointment of the in form Shaun O’Donnell. After Come Play With Me and State Prosecutor, I really question if those three year old events had any real class, in particular any real staying class. It is a bit of guess work with her.

Jazari has opened up at $16 a place. While I struggle to see him winning, this looks the ‘value’ in the race for an honest stayer on the minimum. Reef Keeper will be better for the run, though does appear Prying Tom’s main danger.

Prying Tom is currently $4. With the three-year olds and lightly weighted Lindsey Smith pair in the event (Reef Keeper & Grand Cadeau) all likely to come in for some reasonable support, I suggest we will see a price closer to the $6 mark for Tommy closer to jump.

Selections

2 Prying Tom
7 Reef Keeper
10 Jazari

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Prying Tom (2).  

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