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Belmont Preview, 6th October news

Belmont Preview, 6th October

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 5 October, 2018

Race 1 - They Bet Us

We sadly said goodbye to PUNTA during the week, in what was a case of the little guy not getting a fair go in a world dominated by the big corporate bookmakers. I think I speak on behalf of all WA punters who utilised their services, that they will be missed. Especially Bob. “No Terry, you’re a dickhead”. Deep down he liked me.

The first two year old race of the season is an absolute nightmare to do form on and it becomes even harder when you have a 5 day hangover after watching the Eagles have a Murray (Goodwin) at the MCG. On that basis alone the omen filly here would have to be Miss West Coast. Unfortunately if I started tipping horses due to ‘it being the omen’, I would also have to start rolling down to my local TAB at 10am and start yelling ‘GO THE SIX DOG’. I’m not there just yet.

Niccovi was the big mover in early markets, but I think that was just a reaction to ‘overs’ being bet early. It would surprise me if William Pike wasn’t on Simon Miller’s first choice runner here, Marcee A Lady who put in a very similar performance to that Nicconi filly. With those two being the clear favourites in the early market, I think the obvious and easy investment would be a gelding who upstaged that pair in their trial; Tinsnip. Adam Durrant has publicly stated this Snippetson gelding is quite forward in his preparation and the way he attacked the line over the final 150m suggests he will take some holding out if within cooee of the leaders half way down the straight.

Showzali looked smart in his 400m trial as did the poorly drawn Sauvegarde for Martin Allan. Looks like a competitive race for the early two year old’s. Usually it’d be a no bet race, but with the ability to directly compare Tinsnip ($6.5) and the two favorites ($3.40 & $2.80) from their trial, I think he is worth a small each way spec.

Selections

2 Tinsnip
5 Marcee A Lady
10 Showzali

Suggested Bet: 15 wins and 15 place Tinsnip (2).

 

Race 2 - Who’s The Leading Girl?

This does look a two horse race between Pagan Image and Leading Girl, but as we saw in the Bachelor finale (for those who have no self respect), that isn’t always the case. Comfortably leaning towards Leading Girl who was a nice maiden winner at Northam last time out. On that occasion settled last and was too strong for Pletto, who I think has a reasonable amount of ability. If you follow the Pletto form line back, it’s first up run was behind Stella Anne and if he didn’t cop interference at the 100m mark, would have won that race. Stella Anne then came out to run an unlucky, but good race behind the smart Mystery Miss. The form-line’s are there. This Reliable Man filly showed in previous trials her ability to jump the lids and hold a spot close to the speed, so I expect to see her on likely leader, Scenic Charm’s back. Scenic Charm should give a good kick, allowing Pike to peel off and take the shortest way home with only the 54 kegs to deal with. A winning recipe.

Pagan Image is clearly the proven form horse, but with 58kg’s, the wide gate and the drop back to 1400m (from 1600m), it is a very clear lean towards Leading Girl. Scenic Charm may well be her biggest danger.

Unfortunately the $4.80 which was available most of Thursday morning has been snapped up, but I still think shopping around the $3 mark represents value.

Selections

8 Leading Girl
9 Scenic Charm
1 Pagan Image

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Leading Girl (8).

 

Race 3 - Railed

Electric Light and Masquerade look to have a mortgage on this event and while I suspect one of the two hot-pots will be successful, I do feel like there is an each way spec elsewhere.

It is no secret that Recoileds best racing is when railing out in front and rolling along. The problem for this Demerit sprinter is that he doesn’t have the sharpest acceleration and is often left chasing the speed or on the outside of the pace. The last time he was able to find the rail and lead a field along was 8 starts ago when he beat a smart 72+ brigade. He has since shed the ratings points from that victory which brings him in on the minimum here and he should be able to quite comfortably find the rail here with the Great Northern galloper, Salamaat on his outside. He will be in front for a long way.

Masquerade has a phenomenal career record (4 wins from 6 starts), though I do think those stats flatter his ability. Has won some pretty weak races with some very good barriers and William Pike rides. From barrier 1, there is no reason he won’t have Recoileds back and the chance of history repeating itself is quite high. Electric Light just keeps on keeping on and after Reykjavik’s victory in the Hannan’s, connections might be a touch disappointed they didn’t go that way. Would have gone very close.

Happy having a little each way bet on Recoiled at around the $15 mark.

Selections

8 Recoiled
2 Electric Light
7 Masquerade

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Recoiled (8).

 

Race 4 - Winter’s Coming

The most exciting horse to come out of Perth since Baraki Beats will begin her Winterbottom Stakes assault with what would should be nothing more than a track gallop. Extremely well placed in her career to date, she comes into this with just the 53kg’s when she would still probably walk this in carrying the 59.5kg’s Great Shot has been lumped with. She won’t be knocked around here.

Thankfully she is in the race as we would be looking at a very thin edition of the Birthday Stakes if not. Great Shot leads with Disposition on his back and they will fill the placings.

All eyes will be on Perth’s new Star. $1.40 on offer about her all-up into Winx. Better $1.40 pop than backing Richmond in a preliminary final….

Selections

5 Enticing Star
1 Great Shot
3 Disposition

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Enticing Star (5).

 

Race 5 - Prince Or Pretender?

An intriguing race where we will find out a lot more about Bob Peters, Arcadia Prince. Was just about on par with Perfect Jewel throughout their three year old campaigns, but hasn’t quite gone on with the job as most expected. Trialled well and this does look a suitable assignment at the 1400m fresh.

Ragazzo D’Oro and Just Like Fire are two very interesting fresh runners. The former put in a mammoth trial effort when defeating the likes of Missile Launch & Royal Star. The problem for this big son of Medaglia D’Oro is the fact he will probably be reefed back to last from the wide gate. I don’t think he can outsprint the likes of Arcadia Prince and Just Like Fire if giving them a head start. One to watch as the campaign progresses.

I really liked New Time’s last effort. Was taken on by Forseen, forced to sit then move on that gallopers outside before really putting in late. Despite being an old boy, there is still plenty of life left in those old legs. We saw Sir Snugalot beat Arcadia Prince first up last campaign as a $1.50 favourite and New Time has a very similar racing style. With the blinkers coming off Forseen (presuming they will take a sit from barrier 1), he should get it his own way out in front.

A Knight Of Pro was given a pearler by McGruddy last time out and from the good gate goes very close again. The 59 kgs however, is a huge leveller.

Going to stick with Arcadia Prince, but if the track shows any signs of there being a bias towards the on pace rail runners, I wouldn’t be afraid to have a lob at New Time at around the $20 quote.

Selections

4 Arcadia Prince
2 New Time
1 A Knight Of Pro

Suggested Bet: No bet (wait for the pattern).

 

Race 6 - Sweet Caroline

There isn’t a horse going around at the moment that deserves a victory more than Big Caroline. She has been huge this entire campaign and this is comfortably the easiest race she has taken part in for quite some time. The Brodie Kirby claim gets her in extremely well at the weights, but he is a hard man to trust at the moment. The rain appears to have subsided for now but any further downpours will be massively in her favour. Drawn well in barrier four, but she does have a propensity to drift back in her races. Continually puts herself in the ‘back me next start’ category.

Bold Success is another who fits this mould. Won a weak graduation two starts ago, but seconds to Reykjavik and A Knight Of Pro on either side of that win, read well. On paper you’d suspect the winner comes from one of those two, but both do like getting beaten. Standing them out for second and third in your trifecta’s in a Tom Melbourne type fashion could be the go.

I expect to see big improvement from Rebellionaire. Missed the kick last start and was never in the race. Prior to that he encountered a heavy track midweek and had minimal luck in running. I am not sure if he has come back the same horse, but in a race devoid of a huge amount of early speed, he should be able to lead this and we will find out if there is still some life left in him. At around $9 there are worse each way plays to find out.

I’m going to stick with Big Caroline as my on top selection, but I won’t be re-mortgaging the house.

Selections

1 Big Caroline
2 Bold Success
7 Rebellionaire

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 7 - No Fluke

Just A Fluke looks the best value bet of the day. Jason Pateman only trains a small team, but he places them astutely and seems to get them to improve with every campaign. Just A Fluke is your traditional jump and run sprinter who should lead this with a degree of comfortability. It is rare we find a 1000m scamper in WA without a huge amount of top end speed, but I suspect he should be able to nip across in front of Niccatrice and Secret Assault with only roughies Hashtag Lad and Royalic to deal with, who are both drawn on his outside. Has traditionally trialled extremely well, so I like the fact he is racing completely fresh without a trial here. Tayla Stone is the state's best front running jockey and I expect her to have him in front for a long way.

The clear advantage of being out in front over the 1000m is avoiding the trouble behind you and if Niccatrice and Hashtag Lad are sitting on his back and on his outside, it is likely he will be able to shake these two off and have some breathing room on the rest of the field. Night Voyage is flying, Chesten Flyer is a horse with a lot of potential while the Peters pair of Showcase and Sally’s Realm are clearly talented gallopers. BUT. All will be stuck back in some type of traffic and requiring luck.

We are trusting the stable having him right first up and hoping for some natural improvement but the $21 currently on offer looks a very nice quote for a gelding who will make his own luck.

Selections

7 Just A Fluke
1 Night Voyage
9 Chesten Flyer

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Just A Fluke (7).

 

Race 8 - Taking Flight

Competitive affair to finish the day, where I will happily be taking a stand against early favourite Rockon Tommy. His recent victory was handed to him on a platter, when walking on a slow speed with moderate chasers behind him. Drawn outside of Red Paddy and Flying Roar, it is hard to see him finding a spot in the top two in running. There is every chance he leads up the three wide line in a truly run mile.

Nelson’s Flight was disappointing on the surface last time out, but the race was not run to suit. Himself and New Time were gobbled up pretty early in that event and New Time has since ran a cracker to prove that they were sitting ducks out in front. Expect to see Glenn Smith ride him with cover here and if repeating that first up effort, will be extremely difficult to hold out.

Elegant Blast looks the main danger and the barrier draw only enhances her chances. 25’s to 4’s first up when running a brilliant race before being easy in betting second up when putting in a ‘so-so’ performance. It appears #they know when she is on. One to watch and perhaps follow the money with.

It is hard to fault Battle Torque but weight must be catching up with him now, while Flying Roar, Dark Prospect and even Cappo D’Oro (his first up victory on 8/3/17 stays with me) are not impossible.

I’d be looking at Nelson’s Flight each way or a back and save with Elegant Blast.

Selections

6 Nelson’s Flight
3 Elegant Blast
11 Flying Roar

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Nelson’s Flight (6).
 

17 Comments | 2 months ago

Recent Comments

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 07 Oct | Posts: 6589

Pagan Image. OMG Hope the Stewards Query that Run ?? How do you think I felt when I only needed it to finish top 4 to get the quartet.  :(( It was the last leg to PLACE for a 6 leg multi I had with 5 other winners!!! Cost me a fortune And ...

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 07 Oct | Posts: 2025

Dark Prospect is starting to do now what i expected in his last disappointing prep..its good to see him back performing well.

User piker

piker 07 Oct | Posts: 199

Good to see you post a detailed summary of your thoughts @Piker.Week in week out your a solid contributor well done. Good luck on the punt tomoz mate. Looks a shorties day dont forget the 16% multi booster Winx in your multis punters :D T-S, thanks for ...

User trooper

trooper 07 Oct | Posts: 654

Pagan Image. OMG Hope the Stewards Query that Run ?? That was as dead in the water as you would see. Stewards report was laughable. How some of these stewards are happy to put their name to some of these reports is mind boggling. You can almost f...

User detonator

detonator 07 Oct | Posts: 1381

Pagan Image. OMG Hope the Stewards Query that Run ?? That was as dead in the water as you would see. Stewards report was laughable.

User Rodent

Rodent 06 Oct | Posts: 4306

Pagan Image. OMG Hope the Stewards Query that Run ?? How do you think I felt when I only needed it to finish top 4 to get the quartet.  :((

User therealkramer

therealkramer 06 Oct | Posts: 6305

Happy with Amarillo Roses win in the 1ST. Spuiked it to a old mate from this page, he was under the weather so he passed. Only had $9 win $5 place , did i get overs. lmfao  .have photo of ticket if any non believers want proof  :D Sorry for you...

User therealkramer

therealkramer 06 Oct | Posts: 6305

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User therealkramer

therealkramer 06 Oct | Posts: 6305

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User brady

brady 06 Oct | Posts: 1215

Betting Drift was interesting Also 3.00 - 6.50. ???