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Belmont Preview, 7th July news

Belmont Preview, 7th July

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 6 July, 2018

Race 1 – Protest Dismissed

After taking a week off in protest of the amount of Love Island tweets popping up on my twitter feed, I am back reinvigorated and willing to forgive. In saying that, I still find it extremely difficult to comprehend how some people can be happy doing their ass at Kempton on a Wednesday night while flicking over and tweeting about Love Island. Don’t blame the missus.

Jeff Newman has called me to confirm a cold, but sunny day at Belmont meaning we can finally put that wet weather form away. Keep in mind, Jeff and I have had a fairly tempestuous relationship over the journey. He’s been known to get a few wrong (I have no idea what that feels like).

Fire And Rain lived up to it’s brilliant trial effort with a comfortably victory over the smart debutant Braggadocios first up. The rise to 59.5kgs here is a worry and for those who watched the Q & A at the end of Dom Beirne’s presentation, will probably know that Paul Jordan won’t be too happy with the weight. I still can’t completely comprehend exactly what he was trying to say. Horse wins. Horse carries more weight in same grade. I’m no expert like Dom, but I feel this is a fairly simple principle of handicapping.

Kiss The Breeze’s entire race will come down to the first 100m of this event. If she can jump well enough to find the outside of Fire And Rain (being drawn directly to her outside is a plus as he can bring her over) then she can win. I am quite happy however putting the Dan & Ben Pearce trained Essential Spice on top. Was a huge run against Market Ruler 28 days ago when Alan Kennedy probably erred in not being a little more aggressive to find the fence early. Was left outside of Market Ruler but pushed that very smart filly right to the line, clearing out from the third placed horse. The third and fourth places horses have since ran very good races to frank that form.

The $2.80 currently around does look a bit thin, but in what essentially looks a three-horse race (maybe a touch stiff on Ngawi), she is worth having something on with the weight and gate swing of the other two fancies.

Selections

7 Essential Spice
1 Fire And Rain
2 Kiss The Breeze

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Essential Spice (7).
 

Race 2 – Superior Smith

After Lindsey Smith’s positive swab, I thought we might see the stable do their best Neymar Jr impersonation and hit the deck for a while, but the wins keep on piling up. Great Again found the right conditions seven days ago when leading throughout on an on pace bias day. There are a few worries here for Lindsey Smith with Glenn Smiths unavailability, the drop back in distance (1300 to 1200) and the extra weight. His last win did however rate through the roof and I suspect he finds the outside of Blizzard Express here and class gets him over the line. In saying that, the $1.80 currently on offer looks hard to come at with that list of negatives.

Swift Platinum was OK fresh when failing to muster any early speed and racing against his usual pattern. Is a far better horse when leading, which he may struggle to do with the speedy Blizzard Express & Great Again coming across from out wide. Should hold the leaders back however and is probably where I will be having a small play at around the $16 & $4 mark.

Denim Pack has been an unlucky horse all campaign and that didn’t change last start when finding the wrong part of a rail bias track. Back to the 1200m here from a good draw, there is every chance with a clean get away he finds Great Again’s back. From there, he will be hard to beat. I do worry however if this might be a horse past his peak performance this campaign.

Kramden was a nice winner fresh, but traditionally doesn’t go as well second up while we’ll keep an eye on Adrian Makfi for new trainer Jim Taylor.

Selections

2 – Great Again
8 – Swift Platinum
5 – Denim Pack

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 3 – Blondey

Misty Metal shoots for four wins in a row here after an absolute demolition of her rivals at Belmont a fortnight ago. I don’t think the form lines from that event will read well going forward, but you can only beat and beat convincingly what is in front of you. The jockey change is a concern, though Kate Witten should be able to let Thunderstrut take up the running and then amble up on her outside. She should have every opportunity if good enough.

While Thunderstrut was a nice last start victor, the jockey change is a slightly confusing one though Tayla Stone is no slouch on horses racing on speed. Again, I am not completely convinced on that form as it was on a track which was heavily biased to horses near the pace.

Pretty happy speculating on the fresh Bushfire Blonde here. Her 1200m record doesn’t read all that well, but the stats don’t always depict an accurate summation of a horse’s abilities. Off a similar let up 12 months ago, Bushfire Blonde put in an absolute slashing performance to run fourth to Pinball Wizard at a midweek event. It’s a run which has stuck with me since. Her last effort over the 1200m she took Dainty Tess to 1.25 lengths. She went on to win her next start in a black type race in Adelaide. Reasonable form line. Mapped to get the sweet run on the back of Misty Metal, if Rebecca Nairn has her near her best, she will be awfully hard to hold out late under the vigour of the Wiz.

Big Caroline and Glimmer Girl are two very interesting runners. Big Caroline ran a QUICKER last 200m then Enticing Star at her most recent outing. That form needs no explanation, while Glimmer Girl is another of the Bob Peter’s dispersal sale horses I expect to go well. They’ve been flying for their new trainers and if her trial was anything to go by, this could be another to add to that list. The problem for both is the speed map has them both back near last. They may be set too much of a task. Intriguing race, where at the 1200m I am going to look to the off pace runners to run the trifecta.

Selections

3 – Bushfire Blonde
1 – Big Caroline
7 – Glimmer Girl

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Bushfire Blonde (3).
 

Race 4 – Money Money Money

The money came in droves for Ambiente a fortnight ago and the money was spot on, with a comfortably victory over the very smart Super Maxi and Fabergino. He did get the right run on the right part of the rail bias track, but the win was still extremely comfortably. From barrier 1 against an inferior lot here, it is hard to see anything but bad luck beating him.

Floyd is the obvious danger, though does tend to be a little soft fresh. With More Aces drawn directly underneath him, there is a chance he may not be able to cross and find the fence. I Am Incredible is ticking along nicely and the $4 a place looks a nice quote. Ragnar’s Saga looks won’t be able to go with these over the 1200m and should be triple the current quote.

The $2.60 on offer for Ambiente, does not look like bad shopping at all.

Selections

4 – Ambiente
2 – Floyd
6 – I Am Incredible

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Ambiente (4).
 

Race 5 – Cracker

The first of three consecutive staying races is an absolute cracker for a 66+. Eight of the fourteen runners have genuine winning claims. William Pike’s decision to ride New Age over Red Army may have had a lot to do with his affiliation with Bob Peters, but he has shown in the past a willingness to jump off the cerise and white when greater opportunities present. I get the feeling New Age might be a smart one.

This is only New Age’s ninth career start, but she already has 3 wins over 2000m (undefeated beyond this range) which is not often seen in Western Australian racing. All three wins were in a far lower grade of race, but the dominance which she displayed in winning all three was arrogant. Her last effort she was coming off a 40 day break, on a leader bias Pinjarra track when Pike didn’t use the whip at any stage in the straight. She could have won by further. This is, without doubt, her hardest test, but I think she is a stayer on the rise.

Quite surprisingly the horse which Pike opted against riding in Red Army has been installed the early fixed odds favourite. Often, we see the untried horses past the mile step up to the 2000m+ range, get backed off the map and fall flat on their face. One day, the correlation between ‘running on’ and ‘quick last 200, 400, 600m sectionals’, will stop being associated with an ability to step up in distance and replicate that effort. Horses often lose that ability to finish the race off strongly when they’ve had to run an extra 400-600m before giving that final effort. Needless to say, I am happy taking on Red Army here. It will be interesting to see where the Pontiff lands from barrier 2.

Witness In Court is low level flying, but this doesn’t look his race from the gate, while Beaucount is the only natural speed in this race. If the Belmont track again displays a level of pace bias, there is no reason Randy Tan can’t run them off their feet here and nick this. I’ll be having a small saver at the $15 on offer.

Selections

9 New Age
2 Witness In Court
11 Beaucount

Suggested Bet: 90 wins New Age (9). 10 wins Beaucount (11).
 

Race 6 – Liberty Valance

As the great Gene Pitney once sang ‘When two men go out to face each other, only one returns’. He probably wasn’t referring to a two-horse war in the 2018 edition of the Aquanita Stakes, but I really wanted to squeeze Gene Pitney’s classic ‘Liberty Valance’ into a preview at some stage. It was a stretch.

Come Play With Me and State Prosecutor are the clear standouts here with William Pike again opting to stick with the cerise and white. I’m going to take the great man on here, with Come Play With Me coming on leaps and bounds this campaign. Demolished the older horses five weeks ago, before what I feel was a more impressive victory three weeks ago when copping early interference and a race which never was really run to suit. To hold off a few of the older, smart horses late with 58.5kgs showed a lot of guts.

From barrier 3, I expect in form jockey Peter Knuckey to have him forward of midfield with State Prosecutor back last. All things being equal, I am confident we’ll see this Blackfriars gelding take out his first black type event of many.

The current quote of $2 is a touch thin. I suspect with Pike on State Prosecutor, we could see around $2.50 on the day. That’s enough for a play.

Selections

2 Come Play With Me
3 State Prosecutor
1 Debellatio

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Come Play With Me (2).
 

Race 7 – I before E except after C

There is always an exception to a rule. While on most occasions I’m quite vocally against horses rising to a staying journey for the first time, history does tell us when it comes to three-year olds, fillies in particular, the cream usually rises to the top. Mizlecki is the cream. She’s the custard. She’s all the desserts. Unfortunately, at her last couple of starts the waiter dropped the dessert on the ground.

Her last two efforts from awkward allies have seen jockeys look to take her midfield and find a spot. Another rant pending. This is a very difficult skill to master and involves a high degree of luck. Our number one hoop, William Pike as good as he is, often realises the limitations with this type of manoeuvre and it is why we see him back in the field so often, saving his mounts up for one sharp sprint. This can’t completely be put on the jockey as the trainers need to be aware of the youthful or not top line jockey’s capabilities both in riding and decision making. A simple decision to snag her out to last and save her for one run would have given her a far better chance of victory.

Anyway, Shaun O’Donnell is the surprise jockey appointment here and from barrier 4 (after the emergencies come out) she should be able to find a spot forward of midfield WITH cover. In honour of the retiring Cyril, I think she has that little bit of ‘special’ that the others lack.

Paddy’s Shadow has had an unorthodox and ultimately unfortunate path to this event, with a pre-Guineas set back leaving her with a 1400 to 2000m step up in journey. She is a nice filly however and her last run was a brilliant effort on the wrong part of the track.

Send My Love (who Carbery opted for over Paddy’s Shadow) and Aconite appear the pick of the rest.

We know the likes of San Crispino, Unending, Threads Of Ivey and Witchery Woman have shown form over staying journeys, but my dog who died 12 years ago could have an WWE Undertaker style resurrection and compete admirably in those maidens.

Mizlecki is the best of the day and the $3 is a nice quote.

Selections

1 Mizlecki
4 Paddy’s Shadow
5 Send My Love

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Mizlecki (1).
 

Race 8 – Gunna Win

Really keen on the chances of the Jason Pateman trained Gunnago. The amount of ticks in this fellow’s ‘pro’s’ column is overwhelming, and I can only see a rejuvenated Art Series or bad luck beating him.

His last effort when carrying 60.5kgs (from barrier 13) in a 66+ was full of merit when asked to work early and find the outside of Flying Roar. It was an off speed dominated race and he was tough as nails to fight on like he did late. He steps up to a 78+ here, meaning he sheds 6.5kgs. While this is a tougher race, the field assembled is not a 6.5kg harder field. From the inside alley, Patrick Carbery has the option to either hold the front of preferably take a trail on the unidentified leaders back. I say unidentified as there is no obvious speed in this race, but it would not surprise me to see War God, Meteoroid or Art Series look to take it up from their awkward alleys. Ideally, he finds Pikes back on Art Series who gives him a nice kick into the bend. We don’t want a slow one stopping on him.

Flying Time is doing as his name suggests and absolutely flying. His last two efforts in listed events have both been unlucky, but hugely admirable none the less. The worry here is the step up to 1400m from the awkward alley, but if they are making ground and Tayla Stone can utilise a three-wide line, he has the ability to be finishing over the top of them. At $10, I will be having a saver. He meets War God & Meteoroid considerably better at the weights.

Selections

10 Gunnago
6 Flying Time
5 Astronomite

Suggested Bet: 85 wins Gunnago (10). 15 wins Flying Time (6).

15 Comments | 1 week ago

Recent Comments

User Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh 08 Jul | Posts: 2580

@GaryH has just wound the clock a bit further Hashy. When there was a bit of discussion and a lot of opinions and we would take the **** out of each other.Those days are gone.......A bit like if you go to the track and call a jockey a cheating c..t over the fe...

User RIO

RIO 08 Jul | Posts: 13493

@GaryH has just wound the clock a bit further Hashy. When there was a bit of discussion and a lot of opinions and we would take the **** out of each other.Those days are gone.......A bit like if you go to the track and call a jockey a cheating c..t over the fe...

User hash

hash 07 Jul | Posts: 5786

WOW.  Not one post during the racing day at belmont..  12:56 and 6:36pm were the two post during the day.....  Does this say what it need to about WA racing?  Or is it that PTT has pushed everyone else away????   Anyone with ...

User Rodent

Rodent 07 Jul | Posts: 4198

Maybe people were too busy collecting.....not me, an all favourites day is usually poison for me  L-)

User paraletic

paraletic 07 Jul | Posts: 2699

Its that time of year thats very very hard to get excited about

User GaryH

GaryH 07 Jul | Posts: 946

WOW.  Not one post during the racing day at belmont..  12:56 and 6:36pm were the two post during the day.....  Does this say what it need to about WA racing?  Or is it that PTT has pushed everyone else away????   Anyone with ...

User rooboy

rooboy 07 Jul | Posts: 1212

Got the Quaddie and the last Tri and lost on both bets!Stuff me! 8-} :-w

User thefalcon

thefalcon 07 Jul | Posts: 15024

favourite backers are having a field day...can it be 8/8?

User rooboy

rooboy 07 Jul | Posts: 1212

Tri time.Touch Of Silver/Gunnago (Bar Plates off)2-4-6-7-10-11FLD50%

User thefalcon

thefalcon 07 Jul | Posts: 15024

only about 4 of them... ;)