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Belmont Preview, 8th September news

Belmont Preview, 8th September

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 8 September, 2018

Race 1 - Back Pike...

I’d be surprised if #backpikedrinkwhatyoulike is not trending globally on twitter by the end of the Belmont card. The Wizard has a book of rides which most jockeys would dream about over a month, let alone in one meet.

There are often some stragglers getting to the races with race 1 ‘optional’ for the recreational punters and day to day alcoholics out there, but I reckon this very exciting Bob Peters gelding will get bums on seats. His only public hit out screamed ‘superstar’ and while judging a horse off one trial can be fraught with danger, it’s a fairly safe assessment when it comes to the Cerise and White. He only loses with a Come Play With Me (19/5/18 - still salty) type effort in the saddle. Very excited to see this Statue Of Liberty gelding go around.

The only conceivable danger is Gessato. Was huge first up and with the appointment of Bonnie Palise, I can see some early aggression being the only possible tactics. Leading, kicking clear and hoping Pike has left his pogo stick at home is this Sean Casey trained gelding’s only hope.

Battle Storm is currently $1.55 across the agencies and while I am not one to hop into the shorties, I think this will start $1.25. $1.55 means it wins 65% of the time. This wins 95% of the time. Giddyup.

Selections

5 Battle Storm
1 Gessato
8 Duck Duck Goose

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Battle Storm (5) - I would look at the all-up into Crystal Spirit (spoiler alert) in the last at just under $3.

 

Race 2 - Deja vu

I apologise in advance for the flurry of favourites with William Pike aboard that will be tipped. Apparently that is the secret to being a successful twitter tipster.

Little bit disappointed with State Prosecutor’s opening price here. Coming off a foot issue, he struggled to keep up with the field in a race dominated by the on pace horses in the Peninsula Mile before a very sharp final 200m. This is a very astute stable and an owner who would protect his most valuable assets at all costs, so I have no doubt he would be in the spelling paddock unless he was 100%.

He is a nightmare horse to ride and from barrier 1, Pike has the interesting dilemma of taking the back of Woodsville or Kensington Abbey or letting this horse drop out to last and settle. He is a very talented, but very feisty individual.

Prying Tom is clearly the biggest danger with two extremely dominant wins. Another strong performance here sees him head towards the Boulder and Kalgoorlie Cups.

Rant coming up. I tipped Woodsville to beat home At The Ready last time out for exotic players, which it did, but the thought process on the ride had me completely perplexed. In a race with Prying Tom and Red Army, the old boy Woodsville had no chance of walking them and then out sprinting them. So why did Autier ride him 11 lengths below the average pace for the first third of the race? It isn’t a one off occurrence either. We are far too often seeing jockeys wanting to walk them out in front, when the horses strength is it’s staying ability. Tactically I am the best keyboard jockey there is, but this doesn’t seem to be the most difficult thing to judge. Free lesson over.

I would expect that Matthieu Autier would have learnt from this and will try and inject some more speed into this event, which should help State Prosecutor’s settle.

Dark Musket is tracking along really nicely for the Kalgoorlie Cup and if the two fancies have a chink in their armour, he is the one who will find it.

Suggesting a bet on State Prosecutor, but I would be waiting til closer to jump. I think high 2’s or even 3 bucks could be on offer.

Selections

5 State Prosecutor
3 Prying Tom
2 Dark Musket

Suggested Bet: 100 wins State Prosecutor (5).

 

Race 3 - And Again…

Yes, this will be the third cerise and white runner I tip in a row.

True Defender and Pagan Image were awfully hard to split, and in the end it was the barrier and William Pike which has swayed me to True Defender. Won a trial in style, before a comfortable midweek victory when not fully extended.

Pagan Image comes out of a far better form race and the sweeping run it sustained from the 600m was huge. In a race devoid of speed it’ll be interesting to see the tactics employed here, there could even be some thought to sending Pagan Image forward.

The current market has True Defender at $1.55. Again, a longer price will be available closer to jump, but this is one I will be staying out of unless we see upwards of even money.

Selections

2 True Defender
1 Pagan Image
4 Nicklaus

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 - She’s Electric

William Pike should round out the first half of the card, with up and coming mare Electric Light. Is getting better with every start this campaign and the step up to 1400m on the one week back-up from a good gate, looks to be right up her alley. There should be a solid top end speed with Count Tomoz Off, Rockon Tommy, Baraki Beats and Turbo Power engaged here, which should allow Electric Light to come over the top of them. I am sure I won’t be the only one tipping Pike to ride the first half of the card.

Turbo Power is the interesting runner. My data suggests that this will be an extremely pace and rail bias track. We all know that when Belmont does start playing that way, leaders suddenly become 5 length better horses. This Neville Parnham trained gelding demolished Reykjavik when ridden positively two starts ago before bombing the start at his most recent outing. Reykjavik then came out to win comfortably, the form is strong. Having drawn underneath all the speed horses in this event, with a clean getaway he should be able to hold the lead. If as expected, we see some early pace bias, the $14 on offer will become very good shopping.

Peppijack is flying midweek, though I think the barrier will be to his detriment. Is a real fighter who appears to be able to sustain a long run. Could end up a couple of horses back the fence here. At $3.70 is my lay off the day.

Electric Light is currently $2.10, again I expect her to trade closer to $3 come jump. If the rail is red hot, don’t be afraid to search for some value in Turbo Power instead.

Selections

4 Electric Light
9 Turbo Power
7 Rockon Tommy

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Electric Light (4).

 

Race 5 - No More Pike

This is where William’s run will come to an abrupt end.

I’ve narrowed this event down to two, four year old mares in Route Eighty Eight and Thunderstrut.

Route Eighty Eight teased us like a young Ashley Hansen before three dominant pre-spell runs to shake off that ‘almost’ tag. With a less chequered passage in the straight, could have finished a lot closer to the very smart Stageman at his final run before a spell. Warm up trials have looked sharp and is definitely the one to beat here.

Thunderstrut has been given a freshen up and should roll forward to park outside of Krypto Kid. With only 54.5kg’s and the very astute front running jockey Tayla Stone on board, will give this a shake.

I’ve been losing my marbles for some time, but I am convinced this will be a red-hot rail track and as mentioned previously, that usually means the horse in front finds lengths we never knew it had. Krypto Kid isn’t much of a horse, but should lead them here. Tends to trial in terrific fashion before not putting in that same display fresh. Hasn’t trialled this campaign which I think is a smart move from Martin Knox and has the potential to give some cheek at what I suspect will be $100+ by the time they jump.

State Attorney maps awkwardly and a watch on Royalic who was once the Pinjarra 1000m specialist.

Selections

7 Route Eighty Eight
4 Thunderstrut
8 Krypto Kid

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Route Eighty Eight (7).

 

Race 6 - My Story

In an eight race card, this is the only galloper above $5 I will suggesting a play on. That makes me sad.

I am very much hoping this heavy rail bias I am talking about comes to fruition, as I believe the $20 currently available about noted frontrunner Another Story will look like tremendous shopping. An unfashionable galloper, so a mountain of support is unlikely but with only 52kg’s on her back and no real obvious threats to her position as pacemaker engaged, I think she can give a lot of cheek here. A line can be put through her most recent outing when she uncharacteristically bombed the start, but before that she ran second to subsequent Saturday winner Electric Light and before that beat home another subsequent Saturday winner Turbo Power by 2 lengths. She was pressured throughout by Cape Lady on that occasion so that effort was even more meritorious.

This might sound like an odd statement, but I believe this daughter of Pitleco is more suited to a race of this nature on a Saturday where the rail tends to play better and she doesn’t encounter cutaways compared to recent midweek tracks where the better going has been off the fence.

Patapus will look to come across and race on her outside, but is only a plodder. Recent on pace performances have been OK, without screaming ‘take the $4 about me from a wide gate’. She will be giving Another Story 5kg’s and position.

Bold Success is clearly the biggest danger and if he’s ever going to win another race, this has to be it. Still, I was not convinced with how he attacked the line behind Reykjavik last start. No way I could be taking $2.50 about this perennial bridesmaid.

Shouhou is a third of the price of Another Story, and while her recent midweek was dominant, that track was suited to her style of racing. I don’t think this one will be.

A watch on Dam Ready who looked dynamite in trials. Barrier one could be a big plus.

Selections

8 Another Story
4 Bold Success
1 Dam Ready

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Another Story (8).

 

Race 7 - Stone’s Sonari

Most of my eggs are in the ‘on-pace’ basket, so I will just keep on piling them in. Fair Sonari was a huge effort at his most recent effort when sitting 3 deep outside a hot speed and boxing on to run a gallant fourth. With only 53kg’s on his back and not a huge amount of notable speed engaged (I’m banking on Tayla being able to cross the old legs of Verdello Blue), this Trade Fair gelding should be in front for a long way.

Battle Torque is an interesting runner after an abject failure in the Peninsula Mile. Reunited with Pike here, but is hard to have at the $3.50 quote after that effort. Will be a long way back.

Astronomite is a horse I am sick of writing about. There has not been an unluckier horse in one preparation that I can remember. The problem now is, we simply do not know how well he is going? Was held up the entire straight at Kalgoorlie with 61kg’s and each start before that was either held up or bowled over at some point. Ran a blinder four starts ago and if still in that vein of form from barrier 2, could comfortably win this. Glenn Smith is a smart appointment.

Selections

7 Fair Sonari
2 Astronomite
8 Juicing Carrots

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Fair Sonari (7). 20 wins Astronomite (2).

 

Race 8 - Crystal Clear

For those dumb enough to actually follow the suggested bets, we should be sitting pretty with the second leg of our very short double coming up. Crystal Spirit was backed as if unbeatable on debut (in a class one) and then second up (in a 72+) and both times ‘they knew’. Won like a horse who with normal racing luck will just keep on winning. The $1.80 on offer is above my marked price.

Epic Grey is the big ‘watch horse’ here and maps to find cover one off the fence with Helm’s Gate coming across. Happy forgetting it went around first and second up when down the Pinjarra chute and then ridden cold on a leader/rail bias track. A clear second elect.

Khan and Big Caroline are both tracking along nicely, but I think the rest of them are fighting it out for third.

Selections

4 Crystal Spirit
2 Epic Grey
6 Big Caroline

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Crystal Spirit (4).

5 Comments | 2 weeks ago

Recent Comments

User Rodent

Rodent 09 Sep | Posts: 4261

Fair Sonari - presuming I missed the news it wasn't going forward. I was on it and unfortunately didn't show enough pace to make going forward a viable option.

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 08 Sep | Posts: 1424

Fair Sonari - presuming I missed the news it wasn't going forward.

User paraletic

paraletic 08 Sep | Posts: 2793

Juicing carrots, on the fence, plum spot, then goes off the fence and lets Astronite up its inside, and then back on the fence. #dumb

User BlacksAFake

BlacksAFake 08 Sep | Posts: 2124

Gees not much interest here anymore,little bit sad :-S

User piker

piker 07 Sep | Posts: 168

And....here it is The Other Belmont Preview"'.R/1 I love a good Statue of Liberty horse; big strong types; but not usually 1000m horses.But it is Belmont and it is a maiden.It was a great trial.Gessato should be the only danger after being 3 wide last time and...