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Belmont Preview, 9th May news

Belmont Preview, 9th May

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 7 June, 2018

Perth's tipping championship Raceday is returning shortly for PTT. Get on board.

 

Race 1 – Withdrawals

I haven’t coped well this week.  With only SEVEN races to navigate I have found myself at a complete loss.  The excitement about an eight-race card with three $1.50 favourites is exaggerated by this racing separation anxiety.  We need midweek racing.  What are government employees meant to be doing on Thursday afternoons, work? 

Unfortunately, this doesn’t appear to be a race which will see any form of suggested investment, with the very smart Market Ruler going around at $1.40.  This quote might look thin but is a fair reflection of her recent dominance.  Two-year olds can train off quickly and this is her sixth start this preparation, but Simon Miller is not a man to doubt when it comes to the babies.  He even suggested this week she might have a seventh run this campaign.  At a tick over 40k a race, why not.

Essential Spice was a nice run on debut after doing a stack wrong.  I doubt she can turn the tables on Market Ruler, but if there is a chink in this favourites armour, she has the capabilities to find it.  Baron Bostock was a nice trialler and is one to watch.

Selections

2 Market Ruler

5 Essential Spice

7 Baron Bostock

Suggested Bet:  No bet.

 

Race 2 – Bridesmaid

I doubt this is a race we will be seeing any future Winterbottom winners go around in, but a competitive betting affair nonetheless.

Regal Moon is the current fixed odds favourite, but despite the famous cerise and white colours you’d be a brave punter hopping into the $3.20 currently on offer.  If every woman came second as often as she did, the world would be a lot happier place.  Dropping back to 1000m on a 6 day back up, does look like a sign of desperation for a horse I dare say will find it’s way to the dispersal sales soon.  In saying this the drop back in trip may suit as over the 1300m and 1400m she has raced at this campaign she hasn’t had her customary sprint late, so the shorter journey may assist.  

Undisclosed was a brilliant winner down the straight last start, though it needs to be noted it is a straight specialist.  Two starts down the Pinjarra chute for two victories by a combined 9 lengths, that form does not always carry through to the city.  Her prior form to that was very good however and from barrier 1, if handling the quick back up, she is the one to beat.

I’ve really liked the last few runs of You Watching Me.  If somebody told me I’d considered tipping this Aaron Bazeley trained 8 year old on a Saturday, I would have called them mad, but this is a winnable race.  The appointment of Tayla Stone suits and he is mapped to land outside Zeinite here with the noted front running jockey on board.  Held off Guns Of Navarone and Undisclosed three starts ago when a long priced midweek winner.  Has since found races with too much early toe to find a spot in the first couple in running.  Has won 4 of 73, so the confidence levels are fairly low, but his last three runs suggest he is in career best form.  At $20 v $3 Regal Moon, he’s the better value bet.

Selections

5 Undisclosed

7 You Watching Me

8 Regal Moon

Suggested Bet:  10 wins and 10 places You Watching Me (7).

 

Race 3 – Hackett, Thorpe

Ray Warren would be the perfect caller for this colossal tussle between two of our brightest stars.  I’m sure any avid aquatic sports follower can still clearly remember ‘THORPE, HACKETT.  HACKETT AND THORPE.  THERE’S NOTHING IN IT!’

Galaxy Star and Missile Launch have the imposing record of 18 starts for 13 wins between them.  The step up to 2000m makes the duel even more interesting with Galaxy Star never racing beyond a mile and Missile Launch 1800m.  On pure stats and sectionals, Galaxy Star does look a class above, but the extra weight and step up to a staying trip for the first time can be a leveller.  She is bred to get the journey, but with the career high weight I won’t be hopping in at the $1.50 this time around as I have suggested at her recent victories.

Missile Launch has raced without luck at his last two but has still got the job done.  While Galaxy Star can reel off blistering sectionals, Missile Launch looks tough.  The class of Mark Waugh v the toughness of Steve Waugh.  I do think this will be a rare victory for ‘Junior’.

At The Ready has opened up at $3.50 which is the biggest unders on the card.  He’ll trade at over $10 on the day.  Master Magician at $21, despite the addition of bar plates is the value.  That gear change has swayed me to keep At The Ready as my third selection, but the price differential is quite absurd.

Really looking forward to this clash.

Selections

1 Galaxy Star

4 Missile Launch

5 At The Ready

Suggested Bet:  No bet.

 

Race 4 – Mizlecki The Moral

Probably a stretch throwing out the word ‘moral’ for a horse jumping from 11 with a 3kg kid (who I’ve had a few slight disagreements with in recent times).  But if AFL commentators can call players like Jed Lamb and Danyle Pearce ‘superstars of the game’, then I can declare a horse which is beatable as unbeatable.

Was freshened up en route to the Belmont Guineas when running a slashing final 200m behind the very smart Galaxy Star.  There was five weeks between runs and she would have taken a lot of benefit from that hit out.  With Keeper’s Son and My Greek Boy likely to be going toe to toe out in front the race should be set up for her to come right down the outside (no inside runs Brodie) and swallow them up late.

William Pike has picked up the mount on Broker and despite having no presence in the steward’s report at his most recent outing, he didn’t have a great deal of luck.  This will be his 11th run this campaign and I do think he might be coming towards the end of a campaign which has seen him progress from maiden, to top end metro company. 

Friaresque was good last start though Paul Harvey isn’t the jockey for a sit and sprinter.  Happy seeing him on top of horses which make their own luck, but struggle to get too enthused about a Pontiff mount which needs to be ridden with a bit of guile.  Kokopu looked disappointing on the surface when dropping back to 1200m a fortnight ago, but will be much more suited to the 1600m here.  I think Patty Carbery gave up pretty early at his last outing and he can bounce back here.  A brilliant race.

Selections

5 Mizlecki

12 Kokopu

7 Broker

Suggested Bet:  80 wins Mizlecki (5).

 

Race 5 – Guineas Preview

A cracking three-year-old event, in what is effectively a Guineas prelude.  Once again Fred Kersley appears to hold the winning card with the sharp Necklet drawing the inside marble.  Many expected to see this Snitzel filly take up the running at her most recent outing when Brodie Kirby instead gave the talented Pearls And Prawns a big head start, before making that very smart filly look second rate.  The major issue here is Brodie Kirby.  From barrier 1 it is likely we will see some pace come across from the outside gates which could very well leave him a few horses back on the fence.  Brodie’s mounts on sit and sprinters from inside draws recently have featured heavily in stewards reports with a simple copy and paste job of ‘blocked for the entirety of the straight’ making the stewards job quite repetitive.  $4.20 to $3 in early markets already, I do think punters will be having a few hearts in mouth moments.

Arcadia Prince only just beat Paddy’s Shadow at his most recent outing, though after being chopped out at the 250m mark, it was a brave win to pick up again and get the famous Pike photo.  The wide gate does not concern me for a horse who has tended to do his best racing from the second half of the field, but the 59.5kgs could be a great leveller for a three-year-old.  Can win, but happy to look elsewhere in this.

The bar shoes go on a sore Art Series, so I’m happy putting a line through her, while Alpha Sky will appreciate the senior jockey going back on board.  Look for him to be ridden colder here and unleash late.  The $12 on offer looks a nice quote.

Roganella, Paddy’s Shadow and Brutus Maximus are all winning hopes in a brilliant race.  Happy tipping Necklet as a clear top elect and putting my faith in young Brodie.

Selections

7 Necklet

6 Alpha Sky

2 Arcadia Prince

Suggested Bet:  60 wins Necklet (7).

 

Race 6 – Missing Some Magic

Very sad news midweek with the immediate racing career of Rock Magic in some doubt.  A crowd favourite with his efforts both in Perth and over East, we wish the Gangemi team all the best in his recovery.  It would be some type of story to win the 2018 Winterbottom as a nine-year-old coming back from injury.  Elijah Wood and Daniel Radcliffe are currently being sounded out to play Jarrad Noske in the TV movie.

A very disappointing field has been left over with Durendal, Profit Street and the hard to gauge Meteoroid looking the only winning hopes.  Durendal is the horse who deserves a race like this and from the gate should get every chance to break his WA duck.  Profit Street has the dreaded bar shoes on, as well as the blinkers to try and sharpen him up over the 1000m journey.  William Pike has been onboard for 5 of his 9 wins and his appointment could prove crucial when chasing down the bridesmaid, Durendal.

Meteoroid is the final hope and is a very hard one to line-up.  Hasn’t trialled strongly, but she does seem to save her best for race day.  Miller money could be a telling factor with her.

Selections

1 Durendal

2 Profit Street

3 Meteoroid

Suggested Bet:  No bet.

 

Race 7 – Spineless

A tremendous betting affair here with 10 of the 15 runners winning hopes.  Unfortunately, our much-loved corporate bookmakers have gone up with a 147% market.  I’ve seen common garden worms with bigger backbones.

There were some odd jockey appointments in this event, with Jarrad Noske replaced on Vital Silver despite winning with very similar weights, and William Pike not riding the Bob Peters trained Awaken.  I’m unsure which side of the camp made this decision but having ridden this Dream Ahead mare in both of her trials (and looking very sharp), you would have expected him to retain the mount on her return to the track.  Perhaps he opted for the mount on the in-form Resistance?  I doubt it, but who knows.

Vital Silver is a very good horse.  He looked a little bit underdone first up, before leading up the chasing pack at his most recent outing to record a soft victory.  His four career victories from 6 starts have all been dominant and he does look like a future black typer.  There are some major worries here however with Tayla Stone taking the ride and drawing out near the Polly Farmer Tunnel.  I don’t doubt the plan will be to go forward, but with the likes of Geiger Gem, Captivated Point, Greco and Resistance engaged and drawn underneath her, Tayla could find herself out in the cheap seats here.  Under the conditions, he is an easy one to take on, but does potentially look good enough to do it tough and still win.

My top selection is also my best each way bet of the day and despite the 147% market, I do believe he is well over the odds in the early markets.  Sovereign Trade raced fresh over the unsuitable 1200m last time out when demolishing his rivals in a lower-class event.  Bernie Miller’s horses tend to take a few runs to warm into a campaign, so I expect further improvement from him here.  His effort last campaign when wide throughout and still reeling off some hot sectionals late to knock off Prince Turbo has stayed with me.  I think he has a big future.

Athlete is an interesting runner from the Neville Parnham yard.  Raced without luck behind Arcadia Prince before a nice final 150m, and the three-year olds have more than held their own in open company this season.  From barrier 1, the $18 on offer looks over the odds.

A brilliant race, with plenty of value but the $7.50 each way about Sovereign Trade is comfortably the best value bet of the day.

Selections

5 Sovereign Trade

7 Athlete

1 Vital Silver

Suggested Bet:  50 wins and 50 places Sovereign Trade (5).

 

Race 8 – The Stage Is Set

If you are in a big hole coming to the ‘get out stakes’ on Saturday, you’ll need a sizeable bank to get out on what looks to be the good thing for the day.  Stageman absolutely toyed with some very sharp rivals at his most recent outing which was made even more impressive by the drop-in distance and wide barrier.  Clocked some slashing numbers over the final 400m and the good barrier, low weight and step up to 1200m can only be in his favour here.  Hard to see him being beaten.

River Dance was a great first up effort for Fenella Martin who, for now appears to have got this enigmatic galloper’s head on straight.  Gigante is carrying half of the Belmont grandstand, though is a horse who can carry weight.  The blinkers and Kirby go on and he is a definite place hope.

Only one horse wins this.

Selections

13 Stageman

2 River Dance

1 Gigante

Suggested Bet:  100 wins Stageman (13).

48 Comments | 2 months ago

Recent Comments

User spinking

spinking 10 Jun | Posts: 1617

Good to hear

User rooboy

rooboy 10 Jun | Posts: 1231

Ahh yes we did Spinks!We even had a better day last Sunday in the last at Pinny!

User spinking

spinking 10 Jun | Posts: 1617

Hope you and your old mate who does the old rope trick had a good day on the punt yesterday Rooboy

User spinking

spinking 10 Jun | Posts: 1617

Think he read the second race pretty right

User Chris

Chris 09 Jun | Posts: 3669

Bob certainly has restocked

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 09 Jun | Posts: 6168

Stageman did well to get as close as he did on the line but when saw him behind a wall of horses thought he's in a bit of strife especially when horses like Albany campaigner Bindaree Lady were going nowhere in front of him, meanwhile a handy horse in River Da...

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 09 Jun | Posts: 1736

True that Riders, they were two beaut rides for sure. River Dance is proving himself a handy galloper now his barrier manners have seemingly improved..made light of 60kg today.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 09 Jun | Posts: 6168

Jarrad Noske - all class on a 25/1 shot and a 11/1 shot.

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 09 Jun | Posts: 1736

Super win by River Dance..Drifted to $12 fixed late in betting too...

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 09 Jun | Posts: 6168

Pikey was a $1.01 for the JC...needs to win the final race to sew it up...otherwise 1/100 ($1.01) bites the dust. Lucy Warwick 33/1 a rough chance to cause the boilover.