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Bunbury Preview, 12th October news

Bunbury Preview, 12th October

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 12 October, 2018

Race 1 - Funbury

Feature racing makes its way to the South West with arguably the best Saturday race card we’ve seen in months. There is a real ‘start of the carnival’ feel about it and I am making Big Kev look unexcited. Unfortunately, the unseen curator up top intends on throwing a spanner in the works with a reasonable storm forecast to hit Bunbury in the morning. We do need to remember that the weatherman rolls at around a 12% accuracy rate, so we should be right.

There is a standout in the opening event of the day, but being a first starter from an awkward barrier draw it doesn’t appeal as an early ‘chips in’ investment. Bel My Pago has still looked pretty raw in two ultra impressive barrier trials and doesn’t meet a maiden field which looks to have the next Railway Stakes winner engaged. I would suspect we’ll see a patient ride from Perth’s #2 hoop in Mitchell Pateman as trainers rush to secure his services for some key rides over the carnival.

Together We Dream looks well placed here. Dropping out of a couple of class one’s back to a maiden, this Discorsi mare should settle just in behind the speed and have every chance in running. Palladio and Vagabond Boy look next best.

Selections

14 Bel My Pago
12 Together We Dream
5 Palladio

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Bel My Pago (14).

 

Race 2 - The Price Is Right

A difficult race to assess with many of these gallopers racing at unsuitable trips. The key to this event is who will be able to handle the pace set by Beaucount and still have the sprint and endurance left late to haul that gelding in.

Oddly, Randy Tan does not retain the mount on Beaucount and you can only assume he was sacked in favour of stable regular Ryan Hill. There is not a huge amount of alternate speed in this race. I am a big fan of Arthur Mortimer, but the decision to drop Abeldane to a mile is very confusing. It can’t go with them early and is a genuine one pacer who needs every inch of 2000+.

Salon Du Cheval is the horse who potentially has the most upside and we have seen some tough efforts from this son of Trade Fair in his short career to date. Being able to do this fresh, in a smart field chasing a tearaway leader will require some type of training effort from Lindsey Smith, but he is far from an impossibility.

Very happy putting Arctic Stream on top and as one of my better bets on the card. Raced without cover last time out when pushing tearaway leader Lofty Lad right to the line. The blinkers go on here, he is drawn well and should find cover just off the speed. Back to his home track where he is undefeated from 2 starts, I think he can end Ross Price’s lengthy metro winning drought.

Kia Ora Star will appreciate the drop in weight, distance and return to Bunbury, while Bollinger Boy is flying, but does tend to get a long way back in his races.

With some money around for Beaucount, Salon Du Cheval & Bollinger Boy, I suspect we will see better than the $3.30 on offer for Arctic Stream on the day. Bet late.

Selections

2 Arctic Stream
3 Beaucount
1 Salon Du Cheval

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Arctic Stream (2).

 

Race 3 - Pike’s Bey

Suspect it’ll unusually take three races for William to ride his first winner, with Queen Bey having her hoof firmly planted on the till. On a day where making slashing runs was not commonplace, we saw her come from dead last at the 400m to miss a very brave Kirov Boy by a whisker. Should be rock hard fit here and I suspect if the Bunbury track plays fair, she will appreciate it more so than a worn down Belmont.

While he is nowhere near them in the market, I think the biggest danger will come from the bipolar Master Magician. If there is one horse you simply do not bother doing the form on, it is this bloke. His last six starts have resulted in 2 wins, 1 second last and 3 dead last’s. He’ll decide if he wants to be there. He clearly goes best for Mitch Pateman and that jockey appointment is the key to his chances here. Will go forward with Verdello Blue and eventually Kirov Boy and if on song it’ll be awfully hard for Queen Bey to make up the required ground. IF being the key word.

Happy taking on Noir De Rue at his first go at the journey from barrier 10, with a big watch on Honorfic who is a clear third elect. While I do love Kirov Boy, I think he’s had his turn.

We’ll have our main bet on Queen Bey ($3.30) with a save on Master Magician ($21), who will probably end up a better result.

Selections

7 Queen Bey
3 Master Magician
6 Honorfic

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Queen Bey (7). 20 wins Master Magician (3).

 

Race 4 - Top End Talent

Rare we see this much top end talent on show in a one metro win handicap, but the battle between Royal Command and Special Reward is an intriguing one.

Special Reward sizzled in a recent trial and you’d suspect this Simon Miller trained gelding would have been lining up in the feature race later in the day had he not already had Valour Road and Lady Cosmology entered. He isn’t mapped to have the easiest run in transit with speed horses Lord Sherwood, Kimbo’s Girl, Scandal Maker and Krypto Kid all drawn underneath him. Krypto Kid is the quickest of that lot, but with the early announcement that he will be ridden with cover, I’d suspect Special Reward should be able to cross and find the outside of the leader at worse. From there it’ll be awfully difficult for Royal Command to make up the required ground.

Multiverse is absolutely flying, while another intriguing unknown in this race is the return of Snow Blossom. Ran some huge races at Bunbury two campaigns ago, before not coming to the party at all last time in. Returns to his home track and if they do overcook it out in front, he is more than capable of some big closing sectionals.

Selections

8 Special Reward
2 Royal Command
1 Multiverse

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 5 - Start Your Engines

Small but select bunch of three year olds do battle in this intriguing sprint. The smaller the field, the easier the speed map in theory but this is a tough one to get right. Agent Pippa holds the key to how the race will be run and it has looked to me that connections have opted to ride her a little bit more circumspect to date this campaign. While I don’t know if this is the best tactic for a filly who has the ability to break their hearts, it probably allows Valour Road to slide across and find the rail with Lady Cosmology on his back and Black Sabbath looking to hop onto Valour Road’s outside and come across with it.

Black Sabbath looks a standout selection here, but the speed map is so tricky. If Agent Pippa (or even Chix Pic) opt to kick up, it probably means Valour Road sits on the outside of the speed with Black Sabbath three deep. McGruddy may even decide to snag this son of Blackfriars straight to last out of the gates. A really intriguing battle of tactics and for McGruddy it is very difficult to have a plan B over the 1000m.

While all this is happening, the one horse you can place with near certainty in the map is the William Pike ridden Lady Cosmology. You know exactly where she will be in the run and Pike will have her ready to utilise her 3kg weight swing on Valour Road from a narrow Karrakatta defeat.

While Black Sabbath does not come out of the black type two year old events, his three length debut victory over Market Ruler read’s incredibly well. Market Ruler came out to win his next three starts in dominant fashion. Happy having him on top, though I will not be disappointed to be knocked off by Rod Kemp’s Lady Cosmology.

Selections

3 Black Sabbath
6 Lady Cosmology
1 Valour Road

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 6 - Stage Is Set

A tricky barrier draw is all that stands between Stageman and a first up victory en route to some black type events. A recent trial alongside Great Shot showed this son of Written Tycoon is in terrific order and I feel the 1100m rather than the 1000m of this race will be right in his favour. He will be 5+ lengths off them on straightening, but if they are making ground I have no doubt he will go straight past this lot.

Salorsci put in a cracker first up and looks the logically danger if jumping cleanly and racing on speed. Known as a jump and run horse, his effort to sit near last and make good ground fresh suggests he may be in for a big campaign.

How To Fly is a horse on the rise but after a pearler from William Pike last week, I’d prepare yourself to look away here team Electra…

Happy taking anything over even money for Stageman.

Selections

10 Stageman
2 Salorsci
8 Blackline

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Stageman ($10).

 

Race 7 - The Big Fella

Looking to take on Royal Star first up here. While she is clearly a talented mare, I do feel her price and reputation are always a little bit ‘potential bias’, rather than a realistic reflection of where she is at. Carries 59.5kgs here and that weight comes off the back of a victory in a weak 2200m three year old staying event (8 points) and a second to Properantes in a group 3 (5 points). I think she will be a better horse over a journey and the 59.5kgs she is lumped with here is more than huge leveller for a mare coming off a couple of mediocre trials.

Missile Launch and Great Again look the two who are best suited and I am finding it awfully hard to split the pair. Missile Launch’s recent trial was brilliant with the horse jumping and travelling a dream; an aspect of his racing which has been absent in past campaigns. If this big hulking son of Smart Missile has mentally got it right, he can be a major player in the Railway Stakes.

Great Again just seems to lift to the occasion and will benefit from a race which looks devoid of natural top end speed. Unless either The Celt or Achernar Star have strong desires to run them along here, you would suspect he will find the rail and be in front for a long way. Race fitness in a horse which is awfully hard to get past, tends to be a winning combination.

I was taken by Missile Launch’s trial and will lean that way however. A watch on Action who will be a long way back the fence before running the quickest last 200m. A Perth Cup horse.

Selections

10 Missile Launch
8 Great Again
3 Prize Catch

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 8 - Mollie

With absolutely no disrespect to Mollie Clark, Regal Moon would be $1.50 if William Pike was on board. That’s what makes the final event, while lacking the class of the previous contests, such an interesting betting medium.

This is a mare who is absolutely flying for new trainer Steele Casey. Was a moral beaten at her first run this campaign behind Multiverse (who subsequently won a Saturday class race) before Mollie removed all doubt from the equation, parked her wide (on a track which was clearly rail bias) and she was still too good for her opposition. The step up to 1400m looks a query on the surface, but she looks a more complete horse under Steele Casey and with the extra ground she covered last start, this looks the perfect assignment for her.

Now the question comes down to - what is a good price? The $4 currently on offer to me is enough. You are asking Mollie to find a spot in the three wide line and just get wide on straightening. $4 looks a price which is worth having something on and crossing your fingers she can deliver.

Ouqba Jack represents the value in this race. His first up effort will look disappointing on the surface, but he got caught behind the wrong horse on straightening and never tracked into the race smoothly. I liked his final 100m and he showed us last campaign when he finds form, he tends to hold it. I think he may well be a horse on the rise, in a race with a lot of ‘middle of the road’ types.

Happy having something on Regal Moon at $4 and Ouqba Jack at $18.

Selections

5 Regal Moon
6 Ouqba Jack
10 Sigil

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Regal Moon (5). 30 wins Ouqba Jack (6).

27 Comments | 1 month ago

Recent Comments

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 16 Oct | Posts: 1437

We tried hard Hash. Made all our selections before we headed on track and did a draw. If your selection returned more than invested, bet again, and so on.... Six bets of $100 per race (we split into 2 x 50 bets so everyone had a bit of a say) and one $100 on y...

User Jell

Jell 15 Oct | Posts: 771

I know Fastmoney doesnít post here anymore but Iím sure heís still lurking. Congrats on Multiverse winning 4 in a row =D>

User hash

hash 14 Oct | Posts: 5973

Dunno, I was in the punting tent (which was a great initiative) so didn't get out and about much. Crowd looked pretty decent. Racing was good and track played pretty fair. what was the washup Swoop? any idea of the guys that won it and how did your table go...

User psycho

psycho 14 Oct | Posts: 220

Dunno, I was in the punting tent (which was a great initiative) so didn't get out and about much. Crowd looked pretty decent. Racing was good and track played pretty fair. Agree with crowd and track, but the facilities should have been spot on and not being...

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 14 Oct | Posts: 1437

Dunno, I was in the punting tent (which was a great initiative) so didn't get out and about much. Crowd looked pretty decent. Racing was good and track played pretty fair.

User psycho

psycho 14 Oct | Posts: 220

Who was at the track ? Toilets not working for the men, and the sound system pretty much non existent. Not a good show at the first meeting of the year

User Tigers2014

Tigers2014 13 Oct | Posts: 66

#miracleman take my money !!! What are you talking about ? Good horse if he could get it over the line. Ruins most else these days

User Tigers2014

Tigers2014 13 Oct | Posts: 66

Good horse if he could get it over the line. Ruins most else these days What are you talking about ?

User trooper

trooper 13 Oct | Posts: 646

#miracleman take my money !!! Good horse if he could get it over the line. Ruins most else these days

User Tigers2014

Tigers2014 13 Oct | Posts: 66

#miracleman take my money !!!