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Full Belmont Preview 15th July news

Full Belmont Preview 15th July

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 14 July, 2017

Race 1 - Form v Youth

The weatherman let me down last week with his Friday rain prediction but I'm going to bank on Jeff Newman getting it spot on this time round. We shouldn't be seeing any precipitation til late in the day so the track should remain unaffected and somewhere in the Good3-4 range.

Intriguing affair to kick off the day. Gatting backs up from a huge showing in the Aquanita last weekend. I read a few posts on here about Variation just being the better horse on the day. I can't see how a sane (or sober) individual could draw that conclusion. The question is how good is the three year old form v the open class form of the ever improving Rosewood Hill? It's a coin flip for me. North Ridge is the other hope. The $1.75 on offer about Gatting looks like unders in a race he may be forced to lead.

Selections

4 Rosewood Hill
3 Gatting
1 North Ridge

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 2 - Weight To Stop The 2 Year Old Trains

Salubrious and Cognac have been the dominant two year olds in past month, winning each of their last two starts and running the quinella before that. With each win the weight on their backs increases and with the 59.5kgs I dare say their combined winning run may come to an end. Pearl Trade and Mizlecki are both drawn to camp just off them and the swing in the weights should be enough to see them reel in the heavily weighted leaders.

Ask Lisa is the interesting runner in this. This fillies two trials were better than they looked on paper where Randy Tan never really asked her for much of an effort. She then came out on debut to flash home from last to run third at cricket score odds. It was the best run of the race. If she can park closer to them from the better gate she can nick this at a price.

Selections

10 Ask Lisa
8 Pearl Trade
7 Mizlecki

Suggested Bet: 15 wins 15 places Ask Lisa (10)

Race 3 - Falling Star

Unfortunately the scratching of Galaxy Star had to come the moment I had finished gushing about it's Railway chances once again. Delete. At least it gives me a good opportunity to once again gush about the chances of Baraki Beats.

Baraki Beats and myself don't get along all that well. We've had a few run ins. But when we do click there are fireworks. The $12 a win and $3 a drum in a race devoid of speed looks a very enticing quote. 1300m is his pet distance and a bit like the number 8 batsmen in your local fourth grade cricket side he tends to hit every third ball (miss the kick, miss the kick, flies the gates). Even if he doesn't step 100% cleanly, the lack of pace in this event should mean he doesn't have to use too many petrol tickets to work his way to the front. Profit Street should appreciate the weight relief and drop back to 1300m.

Selections

6 Baraki Beats
1 Profit Street
4 War God

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Baraki Beats (6)

Race 4 - I Have A Dream

A brilliant three old event headlined by the return of the Ben Pearce trained Enchanted Dream. After breaking his maiden status last campaign he continued from strength to strength, culminating in her Magic Millions victory over Ellicazoom. That form doesn't need any explaining and the recent soft trial of this Patronize filly suggests she is in for another profitable campaign. High Conviction looks the obvious threat after returning from a year off the scene with a dominant last to first victory. This is her first time past 1000m and she is second up after a long spell. But from barrier 3, does appear to have everything in her favour. Think the winner will come from those two.

A race I am very happy staying out of and enjoying the spectacle.

Selections

4 High Conviction
2 Enchanted Dream
3 Top Of The Class

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 5 - Wide Start To The Quaddie

Taking a stance against Bold Success here. She clearly possesses some ability but a bit like a young Justin Koschitzke has been slightly overrated early in her career. She has been a beaten favourite at three of her last four outings. The speed in this race does look hectic, which on the surface should suit her. Sharpbob, Tranquilla Sunrise, Dream Merger, Hello Paris, Kronstadt and Pirates Fortune all do prefer to get out in front and roll along in their races and for that reason I am going to put the Lindsey Smith trained Massachusetts on top. A hard one to catch, she was doing her best work over the final 150m at the unsuitable 1000m journey. The step up to 1200m here, coupled with the fact the likely leaders (Tranquilla Sunrise, Kronstadt and Pirates Fortune) are all likely to be calling an Uber half way down the straight will give this daughter of Stratum the chance to be finishing right over the top of them. She represents value at around $10.

Sharpbob's last two runs have been huge and the form behind Galaxy Star and Royal Missile should not be underrated. He beat the fourth horse by a further two lengths on that occasion. A wide start to the quaddie.

Selections

8 Massachusetts
3 Sharpbob
4 Atlanta Blue

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Massachusetts (8)

Race 6 - Full Nelson

The continued improvement of Nelson's Flight this campaign has clearly been no shock to the stable with a mountain of money coming at all of his runs. He was brave last start fighting off Come On Board and the brave Gomer Wipple, who he does battle with once again. The weight swing suggests Gomer Wipple should be able to turn the tables on this Blackfriars gelding but with the lack of exposed pace in the race, Nelson's Flight will be awfully hard to get past.

Cruachan was a disappointment last time out and you could use the wet track as an excuse, though he did win on rain affected going over East. The 7 lengths he finished behind Nelson's Flight is a big ask to turn around. Indi Pacific, Travellin' and By Decree round out a race thin on live chances.

Selections

7 Nelson's Flight
6 Gomer Wipple
1 Travellin'

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 7 - Perth's Best Kept Secret

I am still seeing a therapist weekly to aid my recovery from First Among Equals Winterbottom Stakes debacle. The fact I'd cracked my first Peroni at 11am didn't allow me to mask my disappointment with the ride as well as I'd liked. Luckily they sold me more Peroni's to drown my sorrows.

Anyway, this is a very interesting affair. FAE carries 7kgs more than the rest of the field, but is well weighted. Potent Secret is the closest to him ratings rise and FAE still meets that galloper 1.5kgs better off than at the true ratings. Lockroy should be carrying 16kgs less than him. I do however, still think this is a massive danger race. From barrier one I can see him three back on the fence and if he finds any trouble in the straight, it is very difficult to pick up and sprint strongly with such a big weight impost. With normal racing luck he probably does win the race. But, I am not going to try and recoup my Winterbottom money here.

It's It is a bit thin in the market at the $3.70 currently on offer but is the one going the best of this lot and should go close. I am going to however chuck a $51 pop on top here. Potent Secret is $11 in my market and you can find as much as $12 the place with various corporates. His form earlier in the year around Great Shot, Durendal and Dream Lifter is infinitely superior to this lot and if Roy Rogers has him in the right condition of a couple of month freshen up he can win this. Will speculate with him on top.

Selections

9 Potent Secret
7 It's It
1 First Among Equals

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Potent Secret (9)

Race 8 - Save The Best For Last

Royal Missile struggled to recapture her early three year old form this campaign before Simon Miller gave her a 6 week freshen up. Since then her runs have been first class and now she is getting out to a very suitable 1400m. Her run behind Galaxy Star last start would be enough to account for a fairly moderate 66+ rated race here. The only worry will be the fact she will be probably be coming from the second half of the field. Hopefully we see a fair track and I don't need to go into a meltdown on twitter.

Friaresque and Busters Shadow look the main dangers on their last runs, while New Time can improve if not given too much grief by Fathnoxious out in front. In the unlikely event he is left alone in front he can just about steal this.

Selections

11 Royal Missile
12 Buster's Shadow
9 Friaresque

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Royal Missile (11) 

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