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Full Belmont Preview 19th August news

Full Belmont Preview 19th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 17 August, 2017

 

Race 1 - Saverio Rocca

I think we should all take a second to remember one of the greatest heads in AFL football. Big Sav.

A fortnight ago, I suggested it was worth watching this son of Savabeels first run for nearly two years and it was super. The barrier did cruel his chances on that occasion, but running the quickest last 600m after such a lengthy stint on the sidelines was certainly eye catching. If he can find cover from barrier 8 and be a touch closer he should go very close to finishing over this lot. Triple Event's form lines look good after Great Again's midweek win, though from the barrier I can't see how he can win. Multiverse, Just Like That and Tripeletto are all capable, but this race does look thin on winning hopes.

The $6 on offer for this dual code star (NFL punter for those scratching their heads) looks over the odds. Go Big Sav.

Selections

3 Saverio
7 Multiverse
9 Tripeletto

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Saverio (3).

Race 2 - Dane Swan

Think we'll have an early double to ex-Collingwood players here with Danes Maree my best on the card. She was afforded absolutely no luck at her most recent outing when she missed the kick horribly and was then hunted up to sit 3 deep for Skye Bogenhuber . She found again late, but was impeded on the run to the line. She was beaten by 2 lengths - she deserved to be beaten by 10 on the run she had. From barrier 3, she finds the fence comfortably in a race which looks to be devoid of natural speed. Love the look of the $5.

Debellatio is the unknown factor in this race, he clearly has an abundance of talent. A similar jump or a classy Debellatio are the only ways she gets beaten.

Selections

7 Danes Maree
1 Debellatio
3 Miracle Man

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Danes Maree (7).

Race 3 - Five Cougars Thanks

Couldn't find a reference to an ex-Collingwood player unfortunately.

We have a very even bunch of stayers doing battle here. Jetoomy was the on top selection a fortnight ago when Lucy Warwick gave him a 10/10 ride before he fell in. On the slightly drier track with the jockey change, I'm going to leave him out of the placings. Lucy is on stablemate Charlestown here and his last effort was full of merit. I think he may be one run short of a strong 2100m however and will probably be back near last from the wide alley.

Really keen on a couple of roughies here and will be suggesting a play on both. Cougar Nights is having his fifth start in this incredibly unlucky campaign. His last three starts he has been held up at crucial stages when he appeared to be bolting. He is not a horse who possesses a huge turn of foot, so being stopped in his tracks in any stage of the straight, cruels his winning chances. If he had of drawn a better barrier here I would go close to declaring him (told you the confidence is high). I expect Jarrad Noske to drop him out and look for a trail off Caralabek into the race. The near $20 a win and $5 a place is well over my rated price.

Indi Pacific is the other I can see running a big race here. The key element for this daughter of Blackfriars is to be held up as long as possible for one late crack at them. From barrier 2 in a race with minimal exposed speed, Paddy Carbery should be able to have her just off them and be looking for gaps in the straight. She did run third in the listed Belmont Oaks so I don't doubt her ability to stay. Really happy saving at the $12 on offer.

Selections

4 Cougar Nights
7 Indi Pacific
2 Charlestown

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Cougar Nights (4). 20 wins Indi Pacific (7).

Race 4 - Dutch Oven

Poorly named race by me, as I am fairly confident this tip won't smell. See what I did there? Dutch Spy was a huge effort first up when condition gave out over the concluding stages. The step up to 1300m didn't seem to suit with this son of So Secret again finding the last 100m a bit of a challenge. With race fitness, the drop back to 1000m and the good draw he should be extremely hard to hold out here. This isn't the strongest of Saturday races and the $8.50 is a price I cannot see lasting. I did not expect to see an each way price.

Invincible Warrior looks the main danger, and I expect to see Just A Fluke improve. Chin Strap, Forbidden Planet & Faerie Whisper are all well in the market but are three horses I am willing to put a line through. There is your trifecta.

Selections

4 Dutch Spy
7 Invincible Warrior
9 Just A Fluke

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Dutch Spy (4).

Race 5 - Blondes Do It Better

Interesting start to the quaddie here, with another race which looks to be devoid of early pace. For that reason Bushfire Blonde should comfortably take up the running here with Hello Paris happy taking a sit after failing when leading last time out. If you go back through Bushfire Blonde's maiden form lines around horses like Royal Command and Jackpot Prince, and then look at her last start victory over subsequent Saturday winner Double Digit it speaks volumes for her underrated ability.

Big Caroline, Another Vision and Patapus look the three main dangers who should be chasing home hard. The barriers for Patapus and Big Caroline mean giving Bushfire Blonde a big head start, while Another Vision is very oddly without the senior rider. Everything appears to be in Bushfire Blondes favour here. In This Life is the potential bolter with only 53kgs for Randy Tan. A hard horse to catch.

Selections

6 Bushfire Blonde
2 Another Vision
3 Patapus

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Bushfire Blonde (6).

Race 6 - Williams War

Has Cash On Call got past Sharpbob yet? It was incredibly painful viewing a fortnight ago when Pike drifted further back than he would have liked on the heavily commissioned Cash On Call ($2.80 to $1.80), but still seemingly had the race in his grasp before peaking over the final 50m. Horses which did have the benefit of the inside pad that day, as Sharpbob did, seemed to be advantaged. So I will forgive.

It does look a real two horse war between Grant & Alana Williams two runners - Cash On Call and Young Gina. Trying to get inside the Williams mindset, I presume Young Gina was scratched last week to avoid a clash with Bonny Be Good (as we can see was the right move). The market will be telling in this match race. If there is to be a boil over, Fire Detonator is absolutely flying and will appreciate a good barrier draw for the in form Alan Kennedy. Can win without totally surprising.

Selections

4 Cash On Call
7 Young Gina
5 Fire Detonator

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Cash On Call (4)

Race 7 - Up The Antes

Properantes is a bit of a forgotten horse of Perth Racing after being an early fancy for the 2016 Perth Cup. It has been 616 days since he has graced the winners circle but going on his first two efforts this campaign, I think that dry spell will be coming to an end very shortly. First up he hit the line nicely when Kate Witten didn't have too much luck in the straight. The stronger Peter Knuckey went on last start and he never got out of second gear as he was held up the length of the straight. He probably wins if getting out. From barrier 2 he should get the favours here and is due some luck.

I'm going to take a stand against Falcon Crest. It was a dominant first up win, though the race was really run to suit that style of win. I think the $2.40 is far too short, especially without the Wizard on board. Wayside is $15 in the early markets which looks double the price he should be. I'll suggest a saver.

Selections

6 Properantes
9 Wayside
4 Astronomite

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Properantes (6). 20 wins Wayside (9).

Race 8 - Last Time.... I Promise

I know I've said this before. If he doesn't win this one, I will give up on him. I will never mention or refer to him in another preview. But seriously, Baraki Beats has to go close here. He has to. I am even content for the horse to be ridden with a sit if he does not jump well. There has been a stigmatisation that he must lead at all costs, but I think the Jim Taylor yard are finally cottoning onto the fact the horse has a lot of ability and potentially adaptability. If he does blow the start, I hope he takes a sit. I've priced him as favourite in this. I may be ill.

My Greek Boy looks the obvious pace in the race and was brave first up. If crossing without too much hassle from barrier 10 he will be awfully hard to run down. Kensington Abbey can win again.

Selections

5 Baraki Beats
6 My Greek Boy
8 Kensington Abbey

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Baraki Beats (5).

Recent Comments

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 19 Sep | Posts: 950

Re Red Ora I agree CP Is a terriffic steerer but i reckon he will need a fair bit of luck as he will be well back in the field(imo ridden closer doesnt suit the horse's pattern at all).So with likely half the field charging up wide approaching the turn, what w...

User detonator

detonator 19 Sep | Posts: 837

A family member Dungy?? Not sure yiu have the proper story there mate. Hmmmm ?

User JayJay

JayJay 19 Sep | Posts: 3326

Psychiatrist wanted...2 actually, one for the horse and another for the owner.

User thefalcon

thefalcon 19 Sep | Posts: 14217

way overs, eh sticks.... :-bd

User Sticks

Sticks 19 Sep | Posts: 490

this is an excellent thread, nobody throwing absolute negatives, just good well thought opinions.I rarely bet outside Saturday meetings (does that mean I am not a victim?) but i'll have a rouble or 2 on Miki.kennedy is on focus and riding as well as any other ...

User thefalcon

thefalcon 19 Sep | Posts: 14217

this is an excellent thread, nobody throwing absolute negatives, just good well thought opinions.I rarely bet outside Saturday meetings (does that mean I am not a victim?) but i'll have a rouble or 2 on Miki.kennedy is on focus and riding as well as any other ...

User Jell

Jell 19 Sep | Posts: 388

I'll be on dark royalty myself tomorrow for sure. It's win 2 starts ago was massive. With that weight, that jockey and the position it was in around the corner it should not have gone close to winning yet went passed them with ease. Last start with the 59kg wa...

User buffy

buffy 19 Sep | Posts: 243

Dungy. Sure your story about Harley Balic is correct. Iasked that question of a journalist and he said it was quitr the opposite.

User buffy

buffy 19 Sep | Posts: 243

Detonator. I have researched the last 12 months posts from you and Dungbeatle and i am sorry to inform you that his knocking and obsession of talking down the Eagles and their players compared to you with the Dorkers i have some bad news. The Dungster won 97 p...

User Bludnut

Bludnut 19 Sep | Posts: 35

Buffy your first mistake is trying to get any sense out of Dungy mate. Some people you just can not reason with.