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Full Belmont Preview 19th August news

Full Belmont Preview 19th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 17 August, 2017

 

Race 1 - Saverio Rocca

I think we should all take a second to remember one of the greatest heads in AFL football. Big Sav.

A fortnight ago, I suggested it was worth watching this son of Savabeels first run for nearly two years and it was super. The barrier did cruel his chances on that occasion, but running the quickest last 600m after such a lengthy stint on the sidelines was certainly eye catching. If he can find cover from barrier 8 and be a touch closer he should go very close to finishing over this lot. Triple Event's form lines look good after Great Again's midweek win, though from the barrier I can't see how he can win. Multiverse, Just Like That and Tripeletto are all capable, but this race does look thin on winning hopes.

The $6 on offer for this dual code star (NFL punter for those scratching their heads) looks over the odds. Go Big Sav.

Selections

3 Saverio
7 Multiverse
9 Tripeletto

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Saverio (3).

Race 2 - Dane Swan

Think we'll have an early double to ex-Collingwood players here with Danes Maree my best on the card. She was afforded absolutely no luck at her most recent outing when she missed the kick horribly and was then hunted up to sit 3 deep for Skye Bogenhuber . She found again late, but was impeded on the run to the line. She was beaten by 2 lengths - she deserved to be beaten by 10 on the run she had. From barrier 3, she finds the fence comfortably in a race which looks to be devoid of natural speed. Love the look of the $5.

Debellatio is the unknown factor in this race, he clearly has an abundance of talent. A similar jump or a classy Debellatio are the only ways she gets beaten.

Selections

7 Danes Maree
1 Debellatio
3 Miracle Man

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Danes Maree (7).

Race 3 - Five Cougars Thanks

Couldn't find a reference to an ex-Collingwood player unfortunately.

We have a very even bunch of stayers doing battle here. Jetoomy was the on top selection a fortnight ago when Lucy Warwick gave him a 10/10 ride before he fell in. On the slightly drier track with the jockey change, I'm going to leave him out of the placings. Lucy is on stablemate Charlestown here and his last effort was full of merit. I think he may be one run short of a strong 2100m however and will probably be back near last from the wide alley.

Really keen on a couple of roughies here and will be suggesting a play on both. Cougar Nights is having his fifth start in this incredibly unlucky campaign. His last three starts he has been held up at crucial stages when he appeared to be bolting. He is not a horse who possesses a huge turn of foot, so being stopped in his tracks in any stage of the straight, cruels his winning chances. If he had of drawn a better barrier here I would go close to declaring him (told you the confidence is high). I expect Jarrad Noske to drop him out and look for a trail off Caralabek into the race. The near $20 a win and $5 a place is well over my rated price.

Indi Pacific is the other I can see running a big race here. The key element for this daughter of Blackfriars is to be held up as long as possible for one late crack at them. From barrier 2 in a race with minimal exposed speed, Paddy Carbery should be able to have her just off them and be looking for gaps in the straight. She did run third in the listed Belmont Oaks so I don't doubt her ability to stay. Really happy saving at the $12 on offer.

Selections

4 Cougar Nights
7 Indi Pacific
2 Charlestown

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Cougar Nights (4). 20 wins Indi Pacific (7).

Race 4 - Dutch Oven

Poorly named race by me, as I am fairly confident this tip won't smell. See what I did there? Dutch Spy was a huge effort first up when condition gave out over the concluding stages. The step up to 1300m didn't seem to suit with this son of So Secret again finding the last 100m a bit of a challenge. With race fitness, the drop back to 1000m and the good draw he should be extremely hard to hold out here. This isn't the strongest of Saturday races and the $8.50 is a price I cannot see lasting. I did not expect to see an each way price.

Invincible Warrior looks the main danger, and I expect to see Just A Fluke improve. Chin Strap, Forbidden Planet & Faerie Whisper are all well in the market but are three horses I am willing to put a line through. There is your trifecta.

Selections

4 Dutch Spy
7 Invincible Warrior
9 Just A Fluke

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Dutch Spy (4).

Race 5 - Blondes Do It Better

Interesting start to the quaddie here, with another race which looks to be devoid of early pace. For that reason Bushfire Blonde should comfortably take up the running here with Hello Paris happy taking a sit after failing when leading last time out. If you go back through Bushfire Blonde's maiden form lines around horses like Royal Command and Jackpot Prince, and then look at her last start victory over subsequent Saturday winner Double Digit it speaks volumes for her underrated ability.

Big Caroline, Another Vision and Patapus look the three main dangers who should be chasing home hard. The barriers for Patapus and Big Caroline mean giving Bushfire Blonde a big head start, while Another Vision is very oddly without the senior rider. Everything appears to be in Bushfire Blondes favour here. In This Life is the potential bolter with only 53kgs for Randy Tan. A hard horse to catch.

Selections

6 Bushfire Blonde
2 Another Vision
3 Patapus

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Bushfire Blonde (6).

Race 6 - Williams War

Has Cash On Call got past Sharpbob yet? It was incredibly painful viewing a fortnight ago when Pike drifted further back than he would have liked on the heavily commissioned Cash On Call ($2.80 to $1.80), but still seemingly had the race in his grasp before peaking over the final 50m. Horses which did have the benefit of the inside pad that day, as Sharpbob did, seemed to be advantaged. So I will forgive.

It does look a real two horse war between Grant & Alana Williams two runners - Cash On Call and Young Gina. Trying to get inside the Williams mindset, I presume Young Gina was scratched last week to avoid a clash with Bonny Be Good (as we can see was the right move). The market will be telling in this match race. If there is to be a boil over, Fire Detonator is absolutely flying and will appreciate a good barrier draw for the in form Alan Kennedy. Can win without totally surprising.

Selections

4 Cash On Call
7 Young Gina
5 Fire Detonator

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Cash On Call (4)

Race 7 - Up The Antes

Properantes is a bit of a forgotten horse of Perth Racing after being an early fancy for the 2016 Perth Cup. It has been 616 days since he has graced the winners circle but going on his first two efforts this campaign, I think that dry spell will be coming to an end very shortly. First up he hit the line nicely when Kate Witten didn't have too much luck in the straight. The stronger Peter Knuckey went on last start and he never got out of second gear as he was held up the length of the straight. He probably wins if getting out. From barrier 2 he should get the favours here and is due some luck.

I'm going to take a stand against Falcon Crest. It was a dominant first up win, though the race was really run to suit that style of win. I think the $2.40 is far too short, especially without the Wizard on board. Wayside is $15 in the early markets which looks double the price he should be. I'll suggest a saver.

Selections

6 Properantes
9 Wayside
4 Astronomite

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Properantes (6). 20 wins Wayside (9).

Race 8 - Last Time.... I Promise

I know I've said this before. If he doesn't win this one, I will give up on him. I will never mention or refer to him in another preview. But seriously, Baraki Beats has to go close here. He has to. I am even content for the horse to be ridden with a sit if he does not jump well. There has been a stigmatisation that he must lead at all costs, but I think the Jim Taylor yard are finally cottoning onto the fact the horse has a lot of ability and potentially adaptability. If he does blow the start, I hope he takes a sit. I've priced him as favourite in this. I may be ill.

My Greek Boy looks the obvious pace in the race and was brave first up. If crossing without too much hassle from barrier 10 he will be awfully hard to run down. Kensington Abbey can win again.

Selections

5 Baraki Beats
6 My Greek Boy
8 Kensington Abbey

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Baraki Beats (5).

Recent Comments

User carey

carey 25 Nov | Posts: 5623

place dividend missing for cruachan in race 2 todayneed it to get home!!

User Rodent

Rodent 25 Nov | Posts: 3940

They bet $100 about the grey on BF.

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 25 Nov | Posts: 4617

From Brisburghphil as wellR9 Living in hope here that my old mate PUSH TO PASS can win this at a price of $30+. I donít think itís that difficult a race and the light weight is a massive bonus given he is a small horse. Widely drawn but I still remember ...

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 25 Nov | Posts: 6083

Ascot R9. Tabtouch Perth Cup - New Year's Day Handicap - Terry LeightonPush To Pass is far better than a $40 chance. If stuff has hit the fan in the first 8 races, this may be the hail mary youíve been looking for.   10. FRIARESQUE - 4. FIRST AFFAI...

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 25 Nov | Posts: 1341

Not sure how Push can win but Tayla need to learn how to push a horse through a gap. She just doesn't seem strong enough and everything is gone before she can ride em out..Horses seem to travel really well for her though.

User Coldy

Coldy 25 Nov | Posts: 1479

@ Chelsea, wtf hope you had a quaddie you nailed last 2 legs at big odds and kept me at maiden status in tipping comp in a big way .Awesome picks well done

User silky

silky 25 Nov | Posts: 182

Didnt you say that 5 of last 6 winners came from barrier 11 or 12 riders?

User The_Bull

The_Bull 25 Nov | Posts: 610

Stating the obvious, but the hanicaper got it right elevating Variation in front of Tradesman. Great call.

User keymeup

keymeup 25 Nov | Posts: 165

The more I look at tonkatuff the more I like its form

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 25 Nov | Posts: 4830

Last week after the final race looked at the prices and the 16th horse in betting was Great Shot...so if that field ran ( most of them did ) then Great Shot was the rank outsider...it was that sort of race this year 16 horses and 16 chances. Well done Grea...