Full Belmont Preview 23/09

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 21 September, 2017

Race 1 - Burning Pockets

The weather gods decided to mix things up for the form analysts out there and throw 50mm of water over the hallowed Belmont Park. Writing this on the Thursday evening makes an accurate track prediction a little bit of a guesstimate, but I am allowing for a Soft 6 if the weather man holds up his end of the bargain.

Burning Magic is now a 20 start maiden and has started under $10 for 13 of those runs. Definition of wallet burner. She is probably the unluckiest horse in Perth when it comes to barrier draws and if she is ever going to win one, this should be it. Chris Parnham retains the ride and from barrier 6 will look to have this War Chant mare in the first half of the field WITH cover. Something she is getting used to being without. The $4.60 on offer however, doesn't quite entice me to get involved in the 2017 Street Bandit.

Bloomy's Sun was another of Lucy Warwick's recent shockers in the saddle. It's probably the most talented horse in this race but you just know it will end up wide the journey from the gate. This is unless she can get a flying start and find the fence, or outside of the leader. Not currently a member of #ILoveLucy.

No Ordinary Girl gets the 'Pike' run from barrier 1 and can win. Tom Pike's last Saturday winner was....? Always a worry.

Selections

7 Burning Magic
5 Bloomy's Sun
9 No Ordinary Girl

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 2 - Quality Over Quantity

A small but really intriguing group of two year olds do battle here. Money Maher is your early favourite and rightly so, after two dominant wins. Both starts he has done a bit wrong but still been too strong at the business end of the race. Jarrad Noske will probably have him dead last in transit and there looks to be a few smart ones engaged, so the $2 on offer might be a risk and a tad of unders.

It is a race I feel like I need to touch on all of them briefly. Reyjavik was OK without impressing first up, but did compete in harder grades of races in his last campaign. The jockey change to a senior is a big positive. Resistance returns for William Pike here and is your likely leader. Being a front runner in the juvenile races tends to be a massive advantage. Arrum Boy was ridden a little differently last start and impressed. Still yet to shake the maiden tag and I don't think this will be the event this Demerit gelding does.

Roganella is first up for new trainer Danny Morton and was beyond impressive at his first up effort behind the very smart Art Series last campaign. The barrier doesn't help, but this Rogano gelding looks to have a stack of ability. Moschard looks to be a horse still learning the caper, but his trials were seriously impressive. If he can step cleanly, he probably has the ability to win. His professionalism is the big question. Demon's 'N' Dust and Shania Style are both maidens, but maidens with reasons to give them outside hopes of causing an upset.

A great race.

Selections

5 Roganella
1 Money Maher
7 Demons 'N' Dust

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 3 - Floyd Fuming

The early scratching of Floyd (see the Gangemi's facebook page for a good old fashioned launch at the handicapper) opens this race right up, as he did look close to unbeatable on his latest outing. With Tenterden, Rhi's Rocket, Bangalore and Undisclosed all engaged the sparks should be flying early here which should set it up nicely for short course specialist Glimmer Girl. I'm quite surprised with the early market that Rhi's Rocket has gone up the $2.30 favourite while Glimmer Girl is closer to the $4 mark. I'd be very surprised if Glimmer Girl doesn't start your favourite here with Rhi's Rocket being gross unders at the current quote.

Undisclosed is a far better horse than it showed first up and if finding a spot just off the pace from barrier 6, could take some beating.

Selections

4 Glimmer Girl
6 Undisclosed
2 Tenterden

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Glimmer Girl (4).

Race 4 - Breathing Fire

Not the strongest Saturday race you will ever see, but nonetheless an intriguing betting affair. Amaliemoo has opened up favourite with the corporate's. Something I strongly disagree with, having her on the sixth line of my book. Needless to say, I'm very happy putting a line through her, though I do expect she will roll forward here and may even lead them up.

Just Like Fire is the class of the field, running big races behind the likes of Gatting, Very Tempting & Royal Star. She will definitely be looking for further than the 1400m, but if they overcook it in front (which on paper doesn't look like happening), she could very easily sail straight past them in the straight. I will however be plumping for my good mate Lucy, with In This Life. First up she grew wings when flying down the outside of the track to snatch second in a very similar race. Last start Lucy took the mount and she was unable to find a run for the length of the straight. Opinion kept to myself. From barrier four, she should settle midfield at worst and hopefully look to get this Super Saver mare to the outside on straightening. The $8 looks overs. Vega Dior is capable of running a big race here.

Selections

4 In This Life
5 Just Like Fire
9 Vega Dior

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places In This Life (4).

Race 5 - Time To Win

An event where we will find out a little bit about how good a few of these up and comers are. Young Gina, Time To Hunt and Kia Ora Star are all at different stages of their careers, but all are yet to reach their ceilings and this looks like a great battle between them.

Time To Hunt is a horse, nobody had any time for at his first two career starts when saluting at $25 & $15. His second win he beat the very smart Reveille, who franked that form by winning at her next outing in a very sharp three year old event. Time To Hunt has been tuned up with a soft trial (where he had trouble getting a run in the straight) and has drawn the inside marble. He does look like a horse who likes to wind up, so I expect Joey Azzopardi will be trying to get him off the rail as early as possible.

Tycoon Target should lead without much other tempo in the race and give them something to catch.

Selections

7 Time To Hunt
1 Tycoon Target
2 Young Gina

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Time To Hunt (7).

Race 6 - Bob Peters Law

The three form horses in this race - Properantes, Ripper Rio, Our Finest Moment have all booked 3kg claiming apprentices and two of them have drawn wide. I'm going to look elsewhere for the winner of this event.

Universal Law has had a disappointing campaign, but did show signs of improvement at his most recent effort when peaking on his run late. Pike returns to the saddle and if he can make use of the good draw, could win this by default. Chasing Chaos & Come On Board will take up the running here and both are more than capable of leading from start to finish.

Selections

Universal Law
Come On Board
Chasing Chaos

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Universal Law (5)

Race 7 - There Goes My Hero

I didn't get to use that race title last time I tipped him, so I'm glad I finally get the opportunity. With the expected precipitation, Pop Hero is my clear on top selection. After a strong win four starts ago, things haven't gone his way. He raced without cover, then got too far back twice from unfavourable barrier draws. From the good gate on a wet track I would expect him to be up behind the speed and be right in the thick of it with only 52.5kgs on his back. He met Mr Motown (currently $4.80) two starts ago when having a less favourable run in transit and was only beaten by 2.3 lengths. He draws better than that galloper here and the weight swing is 7.5kgs. That's a lot of cheese burgers.

Pop Hero is around the $16 mark. Comfortably my best value bet of the day.

Selections

11 Pop Hero
5 Agarchar Cruz
6 Lockroy

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Pop Hero (11).

Race 8 - Boston Beast

A virgin catching syphilis is more likely than me catching Massachusetts, but this does look a very suitable assignment. Lindsey Smith finally gets her out a little bit further in journey here to the 1300m and if she can be close enough to them on straightening, will be the one storming home. She could simply not keep up with the field at his most recent outing over 1000m but still reeled off the second quickest last 600m (only Floyd was quicker). The wet track won't be a problem for this Stratum mare and she gets in with a postage stamp on her back. She nearly knocked off Atlanta Blue at there most recent outing and the price gap ($4.60 to $15) looks a little exaggerated.

Final Salute is the class but may be looking for further than the 1300m.

Selections

11 Massachusetts
5 Final Salute
6 Kaapander

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Massachusetts (11). 

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