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Full Belmont Preview 26th August news

Full Belmont Preview 26th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 25 August, 2017

Race 1 - A Sunny Belmont

After finally encountering a precipitation free week (or latter part of the week at least) in Perth, we should finally be looking at some non-rain affected going. A Good 3 or 4 is highly likely with the rail at nine metres and there being no cutaway (thank god) in play.

We tipped big Sav last week and there was an early indication given from connections, that they would like to ride this son of Savabeel on pace. Unfortunately those tactics were very quickly binned as he missed the start horribly and was forced to play catch up throughout. The flying Frenchman Autier lost his away a little on straightening and to finish second, over four lengths ahead of the third placed horse was a huge effort. If he jumps and settles closer to the speed here, he should be winning.

Two of the major dangers in Burning Magic and A Fair Lady have drawn wide, while Costa Oeste is flying but will find it difficult to win until there is a positive riding change.

Selections

3 Saverio
14 No Place To Hide
4 Costa Oeste

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Saverio (3).

Race 2 - Pink Floyd

I have a lot of time for the Chris Gangemi trained sprinter, Floyd. He traditionally trials the house down, so the decision to race him fresh here could well prove to be a winning one. He didn't get the 1200m at his most recent outing before a spell, but before that had barely put a foot wrong in his short career to date. He has clashed with Snow Lord in the past when he was narrowly defeated, but he does meet that galloper 1.5kgs better at the weights as well as having the advantage of meeting Snow Lord a little below his best. From barrier two Pike should have Snow Lord on Floyd's back which will give him every chance. The $4.40 available for Floyd is well over my marked price. Market moves will be telling, as always with this stable.

Selections

4 Floyd
2 Snow Lord
1 Two Silver Trees

Suggested Bet: 75 wins Floyd (4).

Race 3 - The Peoples Horse

Dainty Tess is developing quite the cult following in Perth with some huge efforts, carrying big weights from near impossible positions in the run. She does seem to be a mare who goes well for the claiming female apprentices which adds to her cult status. She races fresh here without a trial, so market support may be a guide to her chances, but I do believe with the 55kgs on her back she has a class edge on these.

The key to this race will be if Potent Secret kicks up and holds More Aces on his outside. If this does occur, I think Dainty Tess will be too strong for them late and finish over the top. If More Aces is allowed to roll along in front and dictate proceedings he could steal it. With the late scratching of Rebel King, Dainty Tess picks herself.

Selection

2 Dainty Tess
5 More Aces
6 Agarchar Cruz

Selections: 75 wins Dainty Tess (2).

Race 4 - More Tricks Than David Copperfield

Epic Grey is a horse with an undoubted level of ability, but he does have a lot of tricks up his sleeve which can make him a risky betting proposition at times. He was scratched midweek from a race he would more than likely have won comfortably to be saved for a strong two year old event. From barrier one, if he is on his best behaviour and can hold a spot behind likely leader Fine Scent, then he should be very hard to hold out late.

Watto's Fury beat very little first up, though the money which came ($2.6 to $1.8) and the subsequent ease in the victory can not be understated. Dainty Pat and Turbo Power are both recent Saturday class winners and round out the chances in a hot two year old event.

Selections

7 Epic Grey
3 Watto's Fury
6 Dainty Pat

Suggested Bet: 75 wins Epic Grey (7).

Race 5 - Weak For Age

It is very difficult to hide from the fact, that this has to be one of the more disappointing Weight For Age fields that I have ever seen in Perth. Battle Hero was sold at a recent Bob Peters dispersal sale and has gone up the $2.20 favourite. Simon Miller may be a little disappointed he didn't hold First Among Equals back a few weeks ago when carrying the 61kgs and pick up the easy $60,000 prize money he no doubt would have here. Anyway, we still do have an interesting little event on our hands.

Happy putting a line through Dark Alert, Flying Time and Pretentious Chant straight away, which leaves us with four live hopes. Despite the conditions of the race not suiting him (he will carry the same weight as Battle Hero when he should have 3kgs less on ratings), I am happy putting the progressive Just Act Natural on top. First up he was afforded a gun ride by apprentice Kate Witten when a comfortable victor. Trainer Paul Roberts said he was nowhere near his peak for that run with this being the aim. He should race on the outside of It's It, with Battle Hero and Miki Two Toes getting the camp in behind the speed. I would be very surprised if that isn't your first four.

Just Act Natural is currently $3.40 to Battle Hero's $2.20. I think by the time the races jumps that Just Act Natural will start favourite.

Selections

6 Just Act Natural
1 Battle Hero
2 Miki Two Toes

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Just Act Natural (6).

Race 6 - Round Two

A fortnight ago we saw a clash between two of Perth's rising stars in Bonny Be Good and Diablerie. Bonny Be Good's win was phenomenal, but I really do believe Diablerie's run was the pick of the two. Apprentice Fiona Bell had him tracking 3 wide the journey on a hot pace. He was entitled to fold in the straight, but showed amazing tenacity to push Bonny Be Good right to the line. He did make up a considerable amount of ground to win, but given the runs they had, was entitled to be going two lengths to Diablerie's one over the concluding stages

For round two, Diablierie gets the services of the senior rider and has the inside gate, while Bonny Be Good does have to jump from the widest and is likely to be snagged back to last. If Diablerie can hold likely leader Zeinite's back it will require a huge effort from Bonny Be Good to get over the top of him. For those that found the $7 that was bet early, kudos. The $3.30 now on offer looks a more accurate representation of his chances.

Selections

6 Diablerie
8 Bonny Be Good
1 Just Magical

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Diablerie (6).

Race 7 - $8 Special

A fortnight ago, I was extremely bullish on the each way hopes of Pushin' Shapes. Unfortunately young Fred Kersley didn't get the memo on how this horse needs to be ridden as he sat 3 deep without cover for the journey. It was not easy to watch for a horse who does like to be saved for one last sprint home. The jockey change here is perfect. The hyphen rides like a senior, though still claims the 1.5kg's and despite the heavy impost of 59.5kg's this field does lack depth. Double Digit comfortably accounted for them in that race a fortnight ago, but on that occasion drew barrier one and was afforded every favour in running. Pushin' Shapes is the one who should get the favours here and will appreciate being back on top of the ground. He is the class of this field.

Pushin' Shapes is my best of the day (if you couldn't already tell). The $8 on offer will get a lot of mine.

Selections

1 Pushin' Shapes
8 Ragnar's Saga
5 By Decree

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Pushin' Shapes (1).

Race 8 - Gunnago For A Spell?

Gunnago has been a revelation this campaign, but his last effort did give a slight indication he may be coming towards the end of a very fruitful campaign. I am definitely not willing to put a line through him as he can still win this even below his best. From barrier one, I would expect him to have Pinsson or Sharpbob's back and both should give a good kick on straightening allowing the in-form Mitchell Pateman clear galloping room.

Nashville Cat is the interesting runner here, money has came first and second up in easier races when this daughter of Hard Spun, found flat spots about 400m out, which ultimately left her too much to do too late. Pike goes on, shes drawn well and she has next to no weight. I suspect she will be the 'money' horse in this event and if you are looking for an early investment in the last of the day then she is probably the the one at the $8.50 currently on offer. I think she will start under the $5 mark. Purely on prices, we'll put her on top.

Selections

10 Nashville Cat
1 Gunnago
4 Sharpbob

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

47 Comments | 3 weeks ago

Recent Comments

User Jell

Jell 29 Aug | Posts: 388

Certainly looks obvious. Jason Brown's reply to Ryan Hill's tweet is gold. I'm sure someone won't be happy with that X(

User Thumper

Thumper 29 Aug | Posts: 656

Judge will be on the radio tomorrow morning to explain. Should be an interesting listen as to why they think it is inconclusive given the vast majority of us can see a margin.In the past RWWA have changed results to fix judges errors so I don't why they're rel...

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 29 Aug | Posts: 4364

My mistake gents, fell for some banter on twitter.

User tony

tony 29 Aug | Posts: 1521

Fastmoney the photo finish is in fact a composite photo of each horse as it crosses the line so what you see is the actual finishing positions.

User Thumper

Thumper 29 Aug | Posts: 656

No FM that is not how the photo finish works. You should know that. It has been discussed on here many times how the photo finish software works.

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 29 Aug | Posts: 4364

Hearing the photo was taken when the winner crossed the line.Obviously the positions could change when the placegetters get to the winning post.Would think the easiest way to confirm it, would be for RWWA stewards to show that photo, not send out a tweet that ...

User Rodent

Rodent 29 Aug | Posts: 3840

Image inconclusive= image not up to scratch. Not good enough.

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 29 Aug | Posts: 4364

RWWA Thoroughbreds? @RWWA_Thor Stewards & judges have officially reviewed decision today & agreed image inconclusive therefore DH declared. Connections notified of review.

User Rodent

Rodent 29 Aug | Posts: 3840

Terrible decision. Chasing Chaos ran 3rd outright imho. Where is the mirror image? Or is it so out of alignment it dare not be shown?

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 29 Aug | Posts: 4364

Dead heat for 3rd on SaturdayIs it Chasing Chaos`s white nose under Autiers`s armpit?