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Full Belmont Preview 2nd September news

Full Belmont Preview 2nd September

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 2 September, 2017

Race 1 - He Ain't Heavy, He's My Brother

A muddling week weather wise has left guesstimating track conditions a little difficult. With Fridays downpour I think we will be looking somewhere around the Soft 5 range.

The customary maiden to kick off the day actually holds some interest this week with the brother to star galloper, Kia Ora Koutou debuting for the Lane yard. His one and only trial was sharp where he finished alongside talented galloper Mervyn. I do expect he will be wanting a bit further than the 1200m and I suspect we'll see a 'get on me next start' type of run.

Bellflower and Princess Zelda are a couple at big odds I am going to suggest small plays on. Bellflower sat 3 deep throughout at her return to racing when only going down to Vega Dior by a little over a length. I suspect if Vega Dior or the second place horse Oregon Bronze were in this event, they would be the favourites. If Mighty Mitch can find a spot on or close to the speed from the tricky draw she goes close at around the $20 mark.

Princess Zelda was absolutely butchered first up, but still attacked the line strongly when she had no right to do so. Suspect she will be cricket score odds come jump, but a win would not surprise me here. Bloomy's Sun is one to keep an eye on after looking sharp at the trials.

Selections

7 Bellflower
10 Princess Zelda
4 Kia Ora Star

Suggested Bet: 30 wins Bellflower (7). 20 wins Princess Zelda (10).

 

Race 2 - Cherry Ripe

Fred Kersley did point to the fact Debellatio may have been a run short first up, and he was spot on as the son of Smart Missile peaked on his run over the final 50m. He should be cherry ripe here and is a class above these.

Lob City is capable, Laufey has upside and Rebellionaire has some type of ability, but really was handed his most recent midweek race on a platter.

Happy doubling my money on a horse I think should be well in the red.

Selections

1 Debellatio
2 Lob City
4 Laufey

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Debellatio (1).

 

Race 3 - NFI

Speed galore here in this very interesting little two year old dash. Every runner bar Caress Your Soul would probably prefer to dictate and lead this event here. I suspect Saturia will be the quickest over the first 100m and find the fence, but the speed map from there is a real lottery. Epic Grey lead last start, though I would not be surprised to see him back near last if a few can cross him.

While many people classify Simon Miller as the number one trainer of two year olds (and early three year olds) in WA, I disagree and think Paul Jordan is the main man. He doesn't have the same cattle to work with in regards to purchase prices as Simmo, but consistently gets the results. So, on that very flimsy basis I will put Saturia on top here.

Selections

3 Saturia
8 Colour Witness
2 Epic Grey

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 - Saved For Saturday

Parading was my best of the day Wednesday before he was rudely withdrawn by trainer David Harrison to be saved for this event. The disappointment of that has subsided as the anticipation of another belter Saturday approaches. His first up effort beating home Ragnar's Saga (2nd), Mrs Browns Boy (3rd) and Supposition (4th) was extremely dominant. That run only becomes even more impressive when you look at the fact each of those horses won their very next starts. Harrison had a brain fade next start when he opted for Maddison Brown on a horse who has proven hard to handle at times, in the past. Azzopardi pops back on top here and his form around the likes of Ellicazoom, Variation and recent Flemington winner Quilista should see him go very close.

Invincible Warrior, Atlanta Blue and On Trend look the main dangers, while Young Gina is the big watch horse after a pretty disappointing effort first up. After drawing the car park, you'd think she will need to come from last to win this.

Selections

4 Parading
2 On Trend
1 Atlanta Blue

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Parading (4).

 

Race 5 - Pinzu Beats

I don't like Pinzu. He's had 16 career starts for 5 wins. I think I've backed him the other 11 times. Perhaps with Baraki Beats currently being reviewed by the MRP, he can be my new emotionally draining nag.

Despite all that, his last effort was huge. When a horse runs the quickest last 600m of a race nearly a full second faster than any other, you know it is low flying. He did that, and with some luck from the slightly awkward draw, goes very close here. There was support for him first up and I suspect the $3.50 currently on offer may end up looking like very good shopping.

Just Magical is a close second for me after being held up at a crucial stage a week ago. The big question with this race, is whether the Lockroy or Our Finest Moment form lines are stronger. I'll be hoping it is the latter.

Selections

3 Pinzu
2 Just Magical
8 Flying Roar

Suggested Bet: 75 wins Pinzu (2).

 

Race 6 - Mani Mani Mani

The first of the two staying events for the day and I really like the chances of Shinta Mani. In small fields, this Viscount mare was ridden upside down at her two most recent efforts when game in defeat. With the bigger field and exposed speed in this event, I suspect she will be ridden cold and make a sustained run from the 600m. Randolph Tan is 1 start for 1 win on the horse.

Kirov Boy's last run actually impressed me. Yes, he ran last, but the way he stuck on over the unsuitable 1600m showed he may be going OK here. If Kate Fitzgerald can get him out and rolling nice and early he could surprise. It wouldn't be the first time he has done so at 100/1.

The Forgotten One and Charlestown are going well, while I am happy putting a line through Danehill's Daughter and Let's Twist as winning hopes.

Selections

4 Shinta Mani
2 Kirov Boy
7 Charlestown

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Shinta Mani (4).

 

Race 7 - Blast Off

Here we get a glimpse at the future of the WA riding ranks with the Apprentices Cup. Doing a speed map with so many inexperienced jockeys engaged, is a pointless exercise. The more established apprentices tend to take this out. For that reason I am happy following the form apprentice Jordan Turner on Elegant Blast. Her runs in the Oaks and Belmont Classic were huge and her most recent effort on a leader bias Northam track was one of the runs of the day. If Jordan Turner can have her within striking distance after an economical run she should go very close.

Burger Time demolished his rivals last start when rolling forward and not giving anything else a sniff. This is harder, but the appointment of our man Randolph Tan is key. Caralabek, Blackwood, Cougar Nights and Romelo are the other winning hopes.

Selections

10 Elegant Blast
6 Burger Time
3 Cougar Nights

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Elegant Blast (10).

 

Race 8 - Tax Time

Taxagano was a dominant victor here a fortnight ago and really should go on with it here. There will be question marks over the fact that win was on the heavy going and he won't receive the same conditions, but I don't think it will matter. This is a midweek race in disguise and from the good draw he should be too strong.

The Reef Keeper form doesn't overly enthuse me, while Kingdom And Empire fell in after a perfect ride in a weak class 3 at Northam. Quest To Venus is the biggest danger, but if we are in trouble coming to the last, I am relatively confident we can get ourselves out. Over $4 is currently available which looks like a big quote.

Selections

2 Taxagano
5 Quest To Venus
3 Witness In Court

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Taxagano (2).
 

Recent Comments

User savethegame

savethegame 16 Oct | Posts: 1304

Village Kid just browsed over Subiaco CEO.message seems like changes are to be made to remove the gap,and will the changes favour AFL aligned clubs----thoughts

User SKIDS

SKIDS 16 Oct | Posts: 740

Jim Byrne ?? 35 @ 21%

User therealkramer

therealkramer 16 Oct | Posts: 6866

J Mac has ridden more 2nds(28) than winners(21). Sydney premiership leader, Nash, has just 9.5. McNaught 25(24%) Moreira 24(24%) Pike 24(21%) Nash 23(21%) J Mac 21(17%) Berry 20(18%) Purton 18(19%)

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 16 Oct | Posts: 8809

What a difficult race! Going to take most of the chances in doubles and leave the fave out, he can definetly win Finche but when's the the last outright favourite to win a Caulfied Cup ? Probably Jameeka would've thought, hey that wasn't too long ago haha, but...

User Rodent

Rodent 16 Oct | Posts: 4646

Mate, I always keep an eye on Persistence Time and even I struggled to include it in the quaddy (but did just in case). He was hard to find. The thing is that respected judges liked Stairwaytothemoon in that race. A 4yo mare with 60kg less claim vs a 5yo ...

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 16 Oct | Posts: 8809

Yep fair enough Rodent, was a tricky race for the stayers, and the market indicated that, I'm just kicking myself for liking two chances that ran close to last Kalgoorlie pervious run, and the other beaten at York and Toodyay. With form line like those two...

User SKIDS

SKIDS 16 Oct | Posts: 740

I'm backing number 22. Every time (14), I've been for a swim at the South Hedland aquatic centre, I get a locker for my stuff. Every time I've been handed the key to locker 22. That'll do me.

User Rodent

Rodent 16 Oct | Posts: 4646

watch the ride on abledane.. not sure ive seen anything like that in a staying race where they were strung out... completely bizarre...  I thought the ride was spot on for that horse. Needed another lap though. Needs to go east for jumps or at least ra...

User Rodent

Rodent 16 Oct | Posts: 4646

Yes a good effort in the ATA when ran 6th in a field of 8 beaten 5.5 lengths. Has had six starts since the ATA, and unplaced all six runs for a combined losing margin of just under 40 lengths, at a average of over six lengths a race. 2 starts at Bunbury at...

User SKIDS

SKIDS 16 Oct | Posts: 740

Mustajeer for me.