Full Belmont Preview 5th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 5 August, 2017

Race 1 - $30,000 Giveaway

With minimal rain forecast for Friday and Saturday, the track should be around the Good4/Soft5 range.

$30,000 is on offer here for what looks to be a pretty weak, though intriguing maiden. It may be the only opportunity for a lot of these gallopers to taste Saturday success. Tow Rope should get all the favours from the good draw with Jarrad Noske having the option to either lead or take a sit right on the pace. His recent effort behind the smart Oliver Travels was good enough to win this.

Saverio is the interesting runner, returning off a 641 day break with a 6 length trial victory. It will be tricky from the wide gate, but we do hope for connections sake the horse gets through unscathed and can go on to win a race this campaign. Just not this one.

Selections

4 Tow Rope
6 Cricket Inda House
3 Saverio

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Tow Rope (4)

Race 2 - Great Dane

I was happy knocking Danes Maree a fortnight ago, but I think the conditions of this race can see her return to the winners circle. William Pike was unable to cross and find the fence at her most recent outing when she found iron horse Cognac too strong. She held the rest of the field comfortably and this is no harder. I am not bothered about the jockey change to Skye Bogenhuber as this filly showed she jumps and runs for her. I think she will be able to cross, lead and not give any of these a sight. Pearl Trade and Turbo Power are likely to get too far back from the gate and a watch on the Darren Mc Auliffe trained Rebellionaire first up.

Happy being on Danes Maree at close to the $4 mark.

Selections

6 Danes Maree
4 Rebellionaire
3 Okina Kuri

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Danes Maree (6)

Race 3 - No Fluke

I was quite keen on the chances of Snow Lord first up, when William Pike put a little too much pressure on leader Atacama Sky. It left him a sitting duck late for the well supported Patapus to knock past him. It is rare Pike makes the same error twice so I expect him to turn the tables on that galloper and go very close here.

The one I'm happy speculating on however is the Jason Pateman trained Just A Fluke. This lightly raced son of Metaldale has shown a heap of ability in trials and a dominant maiden win down the Pinjarra straight. He hasn't trialled this campaign, but I suspect that was to keep the freshness in him for this first up performance. From barrier two I think Brad Parnham will be looking to lead. He is currently around the $7 quote - if the stable have the opinion of him I think they do, I suspect that price may not last long. I think he'll jump closer to the $4 mark.

Selections

8 Just A Fluke
2 Snow Lord
4 Paris Texas

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Just A Fluke

Race 4 - Cash Money

Really looking forward to seeing if Cash On Call can repeat his extremely dominant midweek win here. He was absolutely bolting throughout the run and anybody who'd invested their heard earned on him, would have been queuing up a long way from home. Grant & Alana Williams have an amazing record of getting horses to really go to another level as 4 and 5 year olds and I suspect this son of Vital Equine may do just that. He's my best of the day.

Dutch Spy ran out of condition first up and along with Atlanta Blue and Enchanted Dream look the main dangers.

Selections

6 Cash On Call
8 Dutch Spy
1 Atlanta Blue

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Cash On Call (6)

Race 5 - Drop A Beat

If I tip Baraki Beats again here, I'll lose any credibility I have remaining. I'm fine with that. He appeared to have every chance last start, but I don't think he runs out a strong mile. The 1400m appears to be his journey at the moment. Either that or the journey to Yalgoo or Mt Magnet might be. Ideally he's a late scratching again and I can get my money back. Confidence personified.

Flying Time is in career best form at the minute but I am wary of how much he does mix his form. He is never a horse you can back with a great deal of confidence. Miki Two Toes, Falcon Crest, Settlers Creek and Wayside are all returning from some sort of let up and the market may be the best guide to their hopes.

Selections

8 Baraki Beats
3 Flying Time
4 Settlers Creek

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 6 - Three's A Crowd

This looks to be a three horse race between Friaresque, Astronomite and Showy Chloe and the market agrees with that assessment.

Showy Chloe looked all over a winner 7 days ago when she found Kensington Abbey (bless it's little soul) too strong over the final 50m. The appointment of William Pike is key here and she should be a lot more prominent in the run than she was last week. Friaresque is absolutely flying and the step up to 1600m is perfect at this stage of his preparation. He will probably be last on straightening though will be the one finishing full of running.

Selections

7 Friaresque
5 Showy Chloe
1 Astronomite

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 - Au Naturel

After suggested bets in the first four races, the enthusiasm for the rest of the day as a betting proposition does begin to wane.

This does look a very intriguing little race however. My Greek Boy went to another level last campaign and deserves his shot at becoming a regular city class galloper. He was tuned up with a nice trial win and will be looking to speed across from his wide draw and take up the running. Just Act Natural is horse I have a heap of time for and is one I can see stepping up to black type racing. His last start win over recent listed winner Profit Street, validates those credentials. Coming off a 77 day break with apprentice Kate Witten on board, I don't think she is a betting proposition here at around the $3.50 mark. But she is my on top selection.

Look for Universal Law to be flooding home late.

Selections

2 Just Act Natural
6 Universal Law
5 My Greek Boy

Suggested Bet: No suggested bet.

Race 8 - Scooner's On Brad

Brad Parnham has recently had a knack of riding some absolute pearlers from wide gates. His two recent rides on Variation as well as his last effort on Scooner are perfect examples. Scooner has again got a tricky draw to contend with, but if Brad Parnham can get this ex New South Wales galloper into a commanding position early with cover, he will be hard to hold out. He looked to have the race shot to bits a fortnight ago, only to be grabbed on the line by the in form Danehills Daughter. He beat the majority of this field on that particular day.

Jetoomy is racing well and should settle closer to the speed from the better draw, while Midnight Drama will appreciate the rise back to the 2000m. Her effort behind Fontainebleau in the listed Belmont Oaks makes the $21 on offer about her somewhat appealing. I am not sure if Luke's Gold will get the 2000m and with the apprentice on from the wide alley I am happy taking him on.

Selections

14 Scooner
4 Jetoomy
12 Midnight Drama

Suggested Bet: No bet. 

1 Comments | 2 months ago