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Full Belmont Preview 6th July news

Full Belmont Preview 6th July

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 6 July, 2017

Race 1 - A Drop In The Ocean

Writing this on a Thursday evening leaves a bit of guess work in regards to track conditions. With 8-15mm of rain forecast for Friday and Wednesdays meet being run on a Soft 7, it is fair to allow for a similar rating. This could possibly even nudge the heavy range if Saturday isn't as clear as the weather man suggests.

If her name is anything to go by, then Ocean Jewel should relish the conditions. Unfortunately this isn't how it works, but I have really liked the work of this Ocean Park filly in her trials and one race start to date. She was backed into $1.45 on debut and despite finding a little bit of trouble on straightening was far too good for a what appeared to be a limited bunch. The 1400m looks like it should suit. The Shoe and Salubrious look the obvious dangers while I will knock the Trackta/Honorific form lines. Happy calling it a three horse race. The $3 Ocean Jewel looks a reasonable quote and doubt better will be available on the day despite the step up in class. Expect more Miller money to roll in.

Selections

9 Ocean Jewel
2 The Shoe
1 Salubrious

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Ocean Jewel (9)

Race 2 - Light Fading

We see some interesting form lines clash here and it is difficult to get a gauge on what really is the strongest form reference. I'm a Leitfaden fan and had been waiting for the 1400m he finally got to last start. It did have the advantage of a Pike special that day and beat a very questionable galloper in Pinsson, but the win oozed class. If you go back to her three year old runs around the likes of Ellicazoom and Caipirinha she goes close here. Before her last effort she hadn't had a great deal of luck this campaign.

I question Detango at the 1400m as he did really struggle to put away Checkers at their most recent clash. Maybe I am being a little harsh but his inability to run out a strong 1400m against Elite Flight a few starts back is still fresh in the memory. 1200m might be his go. Friaresque will appreciate getting up in journey to the 1400m and along with Pinball Wizard look to be two of the major players pending how they are handled from their sticky gates.

Selections

9 Leitfaden
6 Friaresque
10 Pinball Wizard

Suggested Bet: 20 wins 20 places Leitfaden (9)

Race 3 - Snap, Crackle and Pop

Tossed up between 'Snap, Crackle and Pop' and 'There Goes My Hero'. Both are shocking, I know. Anyway. The last two starts of Pop Hero have made my little blackbook with the notation 'Wait for inside gate and a wet track'. Tick and tick. He is a limited galloper but he is a swimmer who relishes the 1000m dash at Belmont. The speed in this race looks hectic with Kramden and Stirling Estate likely to eventually make there way to the top and fly them along at a tempo young Danny Miller would be proud of. Pop Hero is a smart beginner and should be right on their hammer and just needs some luck on straightening. Any one of these 11 gallopers can win (apart from Greco - get on Greco) this race and after my on top selection I'd nearly bracket the next 9.

Selections

2 Pop Hero
9 Cataplexic
5 Kramden

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Pop Hero (2)

Race 4 - Mad Owners

Mr. Pearce and Mr. Jones are the two owners who would be tearing their hair out with the rides Mad Brad has copped this campaign. Held up for the majority of the straight. Held up the entire straight. Raced wide throughout. The only positive is, I think I now know how Richmond supporters feel. Jarrad Noske, a good gate, a wet track - everything seems to line up here. I just worry the horse might feel as jaded as I do backing it. He hasn't saluted in 839 days which is always a worry, but he is clearly tracking well.

Majinika will be leading and the form line over Meteoroid (who won comfortably at her next start) looks the best in this field. The worry is the rain affected track for a galloper who has only had the one attempt on a wet track and put in a shocker. He may have been coming to the end of his preparation on that occasion however. Candlelight Star has his first start for Justin Warwick and is definitely the watch horse. He has the ability to win group races.

Selections

6 Mad Brad
3 Candlelight Star
2 Majinika

Suggested Bet: 20 wins 20 places Mad Brad (6)

Race 5 - The Gate To Heaven

Jetoomy has been supported at every start this campaign and only poor barrier draws have seen this Reset gelding not enter the winners circle more than once. 5 of his last 6 draws have been from gate 11 or wider so when the 3 marble popped up next to his name the Warwick camp would have thanked the big man up top. Despite not winning on a rain affected track his runs have been the best of his career and I do believe he is the best wet tracker in this field. His last effort when sitting deep throughout over the 2000m should have tightened him up perfectly for this. The $6 looks a great each way price.

Rosewood Hill is the knock here. While being down in class he does have to contend with an extra 5kgs (a lot of which is dead weight) as well as the inexperienced rider. Happy marking him closer to a $10 chance than the $3.9 currently on offer. No Say In It comes out of a huge run in the WA Guineas. I do think this form might be slightly deceiving as their is a gigantic gap between the two class three year olds and the rest. Fathoms Of Gold is 3 from 5 on a rain affected track. If the Frenchman channels his Cox Stakes ride you might get some excitement at the near triple figure odds currently on offer.

Selections

10 Jetoomy
8 Cappo D'Oro
3 Fathoms Of Gold

Suggested Bet: 50 wins 50 places Jetoomy (10)

Race 6 - Goliath v Goliath

Variation v Gatting. Look no further. Variation got the nod over its pet 1600m last time out but was aided by a 10 out of 10 ride from Brad Parnham. Both horses were arguably a touch short of fitness going into that run and still comfortably accounted for the rest of the field. The step up to 2000m and the better draw for Gatting makes him the on top selection. Variation cannot afford to sit wide or go forward and sit outside the speed over the 2000m. Gatting will be too strong late if that is the case. Jackpot Prince last run was phenomenal, while Decoy Noxious and Burger Time are a couple who could fill a spot in your quartet at cricket score odds. I'll just be enjoying the spectacle.

Selections

2 Gatting
1 Variation
10 Decoy Noxious

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 7 - The Second Stringers

It is a year where the Aquanita really shadows over the Belmont Oaks in regards to the quality on display. Fontainebleau looks a standout on her effort two starts ago when beating several of these gallopers on a rain affected Belmont track. Conditions should go close to mimicking those and this is only 300m further. Her effort in the Ascot 1000 Guineas last campaign, suggests she should be able to stay. The barrier is slightly sticky, but a 7 out of 10 ride by Glenn Smith should see her get the job done.

Elegant Blast dead heated with her in the Belmont Guineas, but again has drawn awkwardly. Her last three starts have seen her feature heavily in the stewards reports and if Lucy can perhaps find the back of Fontainebleau, she is a chance of upsetting her. The Mc Auliffe/Autier combination has been in some type of form midweek and the last two runs of Joyous Affair suggest she is not out of this.

Selections

3 Fontainebleau
7 Fast As The Wind
12 Joyous Affair

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Fontainebleau

Race 8 - Rising Stocks

A difficult finish to the day. The $5 currently on offer for Luke's Gold on the surface probably looks like 24 carat gold, but when reviewing the weights may be closer to the 9 carat mark. Or sterling silver. Stocks arguably should have beaten Luke at their latest meeting when young Fred found some trouble on straightening. There is a 3.5kg weight swing here with Randy Tan's unavailability and Pat Carbery going on. I do think Stocks will be the supported runner in betting, considering the strength of his last effort and the fact he loves a wet track. From barrier 11 I do worry where young Kersley will have this Exceed and Excel gelding. Still, he is hard to go past. I really liked the last efforts of Politics and Granlarado, but I would wait to decipher a track pattern before getting involved in this tricky finish to the day.

Selections

1 Stocks
2 Luke's Gold
8 Politics

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

134 Comments | 4 months ago

Recent Comments

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 16 Jul | Posts: 4617

Fair game I say. He had a crack at gatting, they had a crack back. $2.50 pop beating a $21 chance in a standard Saturday race.No wonder Damien had a chuckle. What have i missed, I hope your previous 4370 posts weren't as lame?Gatting debuted 14 months a...

User Thumper

Thumper 16 Jul | Posts: 747

We love to bag him but credit where it is due, T Turner ride on Frairesque in the last was perfect.

User rowdy

rowdy 16 Jul | Posts: 3

Well if you're interested in dropping him back to 1400-1600 in summer I have an idea that you may run into a nice horse He's a 3yo stayer mate? Email the trainer, ask him to adjust his training program to suit your 1400-1600 idea?? The horse debuted 14 mon...

User rowdy

rowdy 16 Jul | Posts: 3

Fair game I say. He had a crack at gatting, they had a crack back. $2.50 pop beating a $21 chance in a standard Saturday race.No wonder Damien had a chuckle. What have i missed, I hope your previous 4370 posts weren't as lame?Gatting debuted 14 months a...

User Tivers

Tivers 16 Jul | Posts: 6219

1 bird 2 birds 3 birds Stop me when I get to 60,000

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 16 Jul | Posts: 5873

Well if you're interested in dropping him back to 1400-1600 in summer I have an idea that you may run into a nice horse

User TheDiva

TheDiva 16 Jul | Posts: 9531

You said the horse had never beaten anything decent.....its beaten respondent now....

User paraletic

paraletic 16 Jul | Posts: 2382

Yesssssssss Damien..........

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 16 Jul | Posts: 5873

Only one laughing is me Fastmoney........ he shot from the hip having a go 7 days ago..... nek minute a horse he bought is up against the horse he potted.... eeeeeeeek! They just don't make stories like that

User paraletic

paraletic 16 Jul | Posts: 2382

Only one laughing is me Fastmoney........ he shot from the hip having a go 7 days ago..... nek minute a horse he bought is up against the horse he potted.... eeeeeeeek! They just don't make stories like that