Full Belmont Preview 7th October

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 6 October, 2017

Race 1 - Hec Of A Start

Hec Mc Laren saddles up the favourite in the first event, in what should be a cool but pleasant afternoon of racing at Belmont Park. Just Like That has not been afforded a lot of luck throughout her short career. Last start she had a better run in transit when finding the front relatively comfortably but was left a little bit of a sitting duck - I don't think racing withover cover suits her. I think the tactics will be to take a sit just off the speed here and look to use her finishing burst we have seen in the past. The rest of this race is as thin as an Ethiopian on a hunger strike. Red Bananas race form has been horrendous, but the recent trial was smart. The right stable for a big improvement. Technical Limit has ability and can run a big race.

Selections

12 Just Like That
11 Red Bananas
7 Technical Limit

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 2 - Quality Over Quantity

A small field of 7, but an intriguing battle nonetheless. I knocked Our Finest Moment at it's most recent outing due to the apprentice from the wide gate, but Fred Kersley pulled my pants down with a 10 out of 10 ride for an effortless win. Prentice ran second in that event, which worries me with the strength of that win as Prentice is no star. Pinzu has won his last two with serious ease. Taking Clint Johnston-Porter off the horse in favour of the higher claiming apprentice in Kate Witten is a questionable move. I'd prefer the horse carried the 1.5kgs more with the proven jockey.

With the added weight and apprentices on board the two hot pots, I am going to tip the horse who started the Coolgardie Cup favourite - Pushin' Shapes. I have always thought the 1600-1800m is the ideal journey for this son of Viscount and the 2160m of a hotly run Coolgardie Cup was always going to be a tough ask. He simply loses his finish burst over that journey. Come On Board should lead this race with the Wizard on board and Pushin' Shapes may well have his back with minimal fuss. Could get the pie run into this and should be fit as a fiddle now.

Selections

3 Pushin' Shapes
1 Pinzu
2 Our Finest Moment

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Pushin' Shapes (3).

Race 3 - Fire In The Hole

Just Like Fire was an alarming drifter first up (5s to 10s) when looking impossible at the 300m, before showing her customary sprint to dominant her weak opponents. All her previous form is around the likes of Awaken, Royal Star & Gatting and she should be going very close to winning again. Her racing pattern of coming from the tail is always a worry, especially in this event when her biggest dangers - Tycoon Target, Chasing Chaos & Star Value - all race up near the pace. She should win, but at the $2.20 on offer there is no value. Chasing Chaos at around $8 looks the early 'overs'.

Selections

3 Just Like Fire
2 Chasing Chaos
1 Tycoon Target

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 4 - Entree, Main & Dessert

I'm going to dine out on this event, with the appointment of Fiona Bell on Entrechat, unexpectedly spiking my interest. This horse tends to grow a leg for the young apprentice, with two huge wins last campaign. This Street Cry mare SHOULD have won her most recent outing when Takahide Ikenushi found trouble at the wrong time in the straight. She went to the line just as well, if not better than Jetoomy. Jetoomy would be $2 in this. If FiFi (my positive nickname for her til she is held up the entire straight and I get a little more imaginative) can settle her midfield and get her wide on straightening, I am confident the only horse capable of knocking her off is Macavity.

Macavity also has the 3kg claiming apprentice on board and if reproducing his three efforts in Kalgoorlie will be awfully hard to beat here. I am confident we will see a siring quinella for Street Cry. Entrechat is around the $6 mark, while Macavity is currently fetching upwards of $4.50. I think you can back both here with confidence one of the young apprentices will get the job done. Silver Plated to fill a hole in the quartet. The old boy is going better than his form on paper suggests.

Selections

4 Entrechat
1 Macavity
3 Silver Plated

Suggested Bet: 75 wins Entrechat (4) & 25 wins Macavity (1).

Race 5 - Noske Knock

I'm sure there will be many a person disagreeing with my assessment here, but I think it might be time for loyalty to go out the window with Man Booker. Jerry Noske has done little wrong on this Discorsi gelding since winning the WA Guineas on him in 2015. But, as one of the early Railway fancies you do need to consider if it is time to look for a more established jockey. Racing is a game of inches... Anyway, that is all I will say. I am going to knock him here after a 6 out of 10 trial and drawing the widest gate. Danny Morton would have bigger fish to fry than this so it is likely he will not be fully wound up here.

Great Shot looks the weight horse. While the Man Booker/Great Shot form does appear superior to the rest, it all comes down to how wound up the two class horses are first up. Gigante can spring a surprise if they are in need of the run.

Selections
3 Great Shot
1 Man Booker
5 Gigante

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 6 - Two Horse War

This will be one of the shorter priced quinellas you will see at Belmont Park this season. Caipirinha low flies, especially fresh over the 1000m and deserves her current quote of $1.60. The worry with her is the 59kg's she has been lugged with after not winning with more than 56kgs in her career to date. Salorsci's trial was equally as impressive. I expect Caipirinha to cross with Salorsci holding the mares back. I really cannot predict the outcome and at $1.60 v $2.80 suggest it is probably best to sit this one out in a betting sense.

Selections

2 Caipirinha
7 Salorsci
4 Lockroy

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 - Rock 'N' Rogan

The third race of the day which I think looks like a genuine two horse war. Roganella is close to my best bet of the day after finding a little bit of trouble in the straight, first up against Arrum Boy. From the better barrier draw this Rogano gelding should sit handier and the 1300m looks right up his alley.

Rockon Tommy appears the main danger but does have a couple of knocks on him. Bill Doughty has had the horse cherry ripe for his trial and subsequent two wins but it is always difficult to keep a young horse up for a sustained period. After drawing barrier 8 and with a bit of speed drawn underneath, there is no guarantee he either finds the front or finds a spot in a moving line. There should be no such issue with Chris Parnham on Roganella from barrier 4.

Selections

8 Roganella
3 Rockon Tommy
10 Moschard

Selections: 80 wins Roganella (8).

Race 8 - Not That Wizard

Really like the chances of the Wizard in the last, but I am not talking about Mr. Pike. Pinball Wizard was huge in defeat after a 3 month let-up when never on the track and only going down to Blitzem Someday (who beat and ran second to Floyd at his previous two outings) narrowly. Barrier 9 is the worry here, though most of the speed is drawn outside of him (Rhi's Rocket 10, Bangalore 11, Tenterden 12, Undisclosed 13). If Chris Parnham can give him a 7 out of 10 ride, I think he wins. The $5 on offer about him doing that looks a nice price to finish the day.

Selections

10 Pinball Wizard
5 Captivated Point
7 Glimmer Girl

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Pinball Wizard (10).
 

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