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Full Belmont Preview 9th September news

Full Belmont Preview 9th September

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 9 September, 2017

Race 1 - Bars Off, We're On

An absolute belter of a week in the wild west with barely a drop of rain hitting the metropolitan area. We should be looking at a Good 4 track rating.

Going to kick the meet off with my best of the day with the now Lindsey Smith trained Hicount. This daughter of Viscount put in two huge runs at her debut campaign for Stan Bates before the dreaded bar shoes were added to the gear and she was a beaten $1.50 favourite at York. Happy forgetting that run as she clearly was not a happy horse and the stable appear to have been trying to squeeze a win out of her before spelling. Has been tuned up with a soft trial and from a good gate looks the one with the most upside. I've marked it under $3 in my market so needless to say, the $6 on offer looks appetising.

Burning Magic must have kicked the shit out of a black cat after again drawing wide (6 of her last 7 starts she has drawn 9 or wider). Just Like That could run a big race if cuddled up for one run late. Money often comes, but luck (and potentially ability) fail to follow.

Selections

12 Hicount
9 Just Like That
8 Burning Magic

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Hicount (12).

Race 2 - Northam Race 8

This looks like a race which is on the wrong program. A little 8 horse dash worth $40,000. Good luck to them. Mrs Brown's Boy is a horse I quite like and if he is capable of crossing and finding Forty Four Reds outside, he will take a stack of beating. His previous effort, while beaten 2 lengths was still sound as he was chasing a horse who is a master of getting to the front and rolling along. Tycoon Target is the proven class but first up at the 1400m with no trial is a real guessing game. Market support is usually quite telling with this son of Blackfriars. Kingdom And Empire will improve with a sit.

Selections

5 Mrs Brown's Boys
2 Tycoon Target
3 Kingdom And Empire

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 3 - Mayweather Mahar

Money Maher was a huge run first up when getting way out of his ground early before attacking the line like Wayne Rooney on a Manchester hooker. This is a long way up in class, but as proven by his third in the Group 3 Sires Produce, he is capable. From barrier four, Jarrad Noske should have him just off the speed. Can only presume the Pearce stable had committed to Noske riding him this campaign as the reason for Pike being given the boot. Dainty Pat looks the biggest danger on paper, but from barrier nine, I presume she'll have to drop back near last. A big ask. Royal Strata can run a big race out in front and as I often mention, Paul Jordan knows how to train a young'un.

Selections

4 Money Maher
6 Royal Strata
2 Dainty Pat

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Money Maher (4).

Race 4 - Perth's Best Kept Secret

An interesting little sprint here with tactics essential. Stable Secret pinged the lids last start to lead but did not receive a moment of peace and quiet out in front, as Zeinite took it to him from start to finish. To battle back and be beaten only 1.5 lengths was a huge effort. I suspect Brad Graham will issue the instructions to let Zeinite do it's thing out in front and take the sit in behind him. From here he should be very hard to hold out at his third run from a spell. The 59kg is the factor holding him back from being declared an 'each way special'. Diablerie appeared to have every chance last start in the same race as Stable Secret. He will appreciate the drop in grade. Patapus should get the pie run here, while Faerie Whisper is weighted to win.

Selections

1 Stable Secret
3 Diablerie
9 Patapus

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Stable Secret (1).

Race 5 - Michael

Michael Two Toes (most of you will know him as Miki) and I, have a pretty close affiliation. A horse who tends to only win one or two per campaign, but I seem to always be in sync with this Patronize gelding - and today is his day. The step up to the 1400m is the biggest plus for him here as he was only getting warm over the latter stages of the 1200m. I can see a reason to knock the rest of the fancies. Just Act Natural arguably peaked on his run over the 1300m last start, making the 1400m questionable. However he should be ridden with a sit here with It's It and Key To Fame, the first two in running. It's It will need to find another level carrying the 59kgs. At the weights it is very hard to see him beating Miki Two Toes or Just Act Natural. Flying Time, is doing just that - flying, but has only one top two finish to his name in 14 runs over the 1400m. The 1300m might be his limit.

Michael Two Toes.

Selections

7 Miki Two Toes
4 Just Act Natural
5 Flying Time

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Miki Two Toes (7).

Race 6 - Kim Jong Un

An intriguing little sprint, sees the North Korean Supreme Leader's favourite horse, Bombs Away go around. Game in defeat to the super talented Dainty Tess last start, he is difficult to catch, though conditions may be in his favour here. He will likely settle dead last from the wide draw, but if he can get the right tow into the race is the one who will be reeling off the quickest last sectionals.

Tayla Stone owes Jim Taylor for her ride on Lorentinio midweek and this is the perfect opportunity to make amends. Gigante is probably more of a 1200m horse at this stage of his career, but from the good gate if he can stalk the leaders he can be too strong late. Lockroy drops back to 1000m which is a worry, but his run over 1000m a month ago behind It's It, now looks very good.

Despite not really having a sound reason to do so, I am going to put Agarchar Cruz on top. William Pike is on board, he should be able to cross and find the rail and Ashley Maley is in good training form after just picking him up. Worth a spec at $15+ with the Wizard on top.

Selections

3 Agarchar Cruz
4 Bombs Away
5 Lockroy

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 - Peter

We had Michael go around earlier and while Peter and I aren't as close. He is still my boy.

Outlaw Pete has been serviceable at his first two runs this campaign with little market support. The appointment of the 3kg claiming female apprentice I think was a bit of a tell from trainer Trevor Andrews, that they weren't that serious just yet. The appointment of regular hoop CJP is a massive plus. He is a horse who really needs a strong jockey. Really happy having a bit on each way at around the $20 mark.

Ragnar's Saga is the early favourite, though this is a totally different race after drawing the widest gate. It is likely Pike will have to go back to last or risk being caught wide. By Decree meets him 2kgs better for a narrow defeat, as well as having a far kinder barrier draw here. He should turn the tables. Ragnar Saga's last victory may have been slightly embellished by the race call - in the end, he really got given the shortest way home. I'm taking him on here.

Selections

1 Outlaw Pete
6 By Decree
3 Pinsson

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Outlaw Pete (1).

Race 8 - The Need For Speed

The first 100 of this 1000 metre dash will determine the result. I think Floyd should be able to lead, while Undisclosed will be looking to come across and find his outside. If this happens it should be a race in two. High Calypso, Miss Somebody and I Am Incredible have all drawn underneath Undisclosed, so there is a big chance he may be left in the cheap seats. Either that, or there may be a pre-race tactic to go back.

Either way, I think Floyd is the most reliable bet here and I will stick with him. He had to do more work than he would have liked to find the lead first up and despite me imploring patience upon Jarrad Noske, he probably went for home a little early. This saw him wanting over the final 50 metres. He should be fitter here and from the good gate, does have the option to take a sit if the sparks are flying. Dutch Spy should appreciate the pace, but he did only fall in last start and may have reached his mark.

Selections

4 Floyd
5 Undisclosed
8 Massachusetts

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Floyd (4).
 

1 Comments | 1 week ago

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User thefalcon

thefalcon 09 Sep | Posts: 14217

anybody know how miki 2 toes got his name?