The All New Perth Preview - Belmont June 15th

Daniel Cripps | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 14 June, 2019

A bit about the Author:

I live and breathe WA racing but have minimal interest in any other state. I’m the guy at Derby day who couldn’t tell you who the favourite is in the Coolmore but gives anyone who will listen my thoughts on every runner in the next at Bunbury when it pops up on Sky 2.

When it comes to doing the form, I take a quantitative analysis (ratings) approach and then overlay that with watching replays. I tend to focus on backing runners who are well thought of in the market and are likely to settle on or near enough to the speed. You’ll probably notice my interest wanes when previewing juvenile and staying events.

I don’t have an active PTT account however I love talking anything WA racing so feel free to get in contact via Twitter, my handle is crippa_92. Looking forward the challenge of trying to fill the big shoes left by Terry.

Anyway enough of that, we’ve got a really competitive eight race card on Saturday. With minimal rain forecast over the next couple of days I’m expecting the track to be upgraded to a Soft5. Rail in the 6m position and I can’t find any reason to suggest that the track won’t play fairly. As per Terry’s previews, maximum confidence bet will be $100.

Race 1- The Debut

Interesting speed map to kick off proceedings with MISS TYCOON looking to cross BRAVE CONTENDER while THAT’S FUNNY AZ might try to hold them both out which should ensure they run along.

Putting CARABINIER on top. Cost himself any chance first up when bungling the start but he was strong on the line when well thought of in the market. They have tinkered with the gear and if Hill can get him to step cleanly and sit just behind the speed then watch for him late.

MISS TYCOON is your typical jump and run type 2yo. If she finds the front and controls they will struggle to catch her. BRAVE CONTENDER might be a better horse taking a sit, his figures two starts back were strong. I’ll mention OBSTINATION as she will have her admirers being the half-sister to Gatting. I’ve learnt the hard way that siblings don’t always inherit the same genetics but her trial was solid enough so I’ll throw her in.

Not a race I’m keen to get involved in.

Selections:

CARABINIER – MISS TYCOON – BRAVE CONTENDER – OBSTINATION

Betting Strategy:

No bet.

 

Race 2- Figures > Hype

The speed will be solid with no less than five runners who like to settle in the first couple. There has always been a lot of hype around SAMIZDAT and while he has looked the goods on the eye his figures don’t quite emulate that so I’ll be betting around him.

It’s a race with many chances but I’m keen to side with the soft track specialist DOUBLE BUBBLE. Undefeated on rain affected ground and drops back to the five furlongs after a short let up. She gets in well at the weights after the claim and from the inside marble Jade has the option to lead or box seat.

CATHERINE WHEEL was brave last start when being taken on a long way from home. Has the speed to lead or breeze and a repeat of the run on soft ground behind Dance Music would be good enough to win this. ESSENTIAL SPICE was also huge last start when “Lethal Lee” put on a clinic of how to give a horse a gut buster first up with his for lack of a better word, aggressive ride on Gillespie. She maps awkwardly from gate 8 but if Knuckey gets one off the fence then she’s right in this. Though I’ve taken on SAMIZDAT he is lightly raced and has upside, I’m not completely insane so I’ll throw him in for 4^th while NOCELLE ran well off a long layoff and if she has improved off that she can run a race at decent odds.

A competitive event but happy to have something on DOUBLE BUBBLE and to a lesser degree CATHERINE WHEEL. Happy enough with the prices at time of writing but if the money comes for the favourite we might get better late.

Selections:

DOUBLE BUBBLE – CATHERINE WHEEL – ESSENTIAL SPICE – SAMIZDAT

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins DOUBLE BUBBLE and $10 wins CATHERINE WHEEL

 

Race 3- Staying King

Field of ten to battle it out in the staying event, the speed should be genuine with noted leaders NOIR DE RUE and PALACE ROGUE engaged.

Hard to look past COME PLAY WITH ME, he is getting up in the weights but his last win was arrogant. He will get an economical run from the inside gate and with even luck he should be able to make it three on the trot.

SALON DU CHEVAL looks the danger, missed the kick and needed to be bustled to tack onto the field but when he put his mind on the job he hit the line hard. If Pike can step away cleanly then his best figures put him right in the mix.

AT THE READY isn’t in the greatest of form but likes the wet and can’t be discounted due to the man who trains him while FRIARESQUE can improve with the Pontiff jumping on.

COME PLAY WITH ME should be winning, however if Kirby gets locked away on the fence it won’t be easy to sprint with the big weight so I won’t be diving in at the shorts.

Selections:

COME PLAY WITH ME – SALON DU CHEVAL – AT THE READY – FRIARESQUE

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 4- Boot Leather

Not a heap of pace in this mile event, PLAY HARD should lead comfortably with ARNIE’S BOY sitting outside.

It looks a race where you could have half a dozen picks and still miss the winner. Eventually sided with the lightly raced 5yo DEIMOS, he backed up a superb trial when winning with authority first up after tramping deep throughout off the back of some good market support. Again maps awkwardly but if Kennedy can get him in the three-wide line then I think he will make his presence felt. His best figures measure up and there is plenty of upside.

REBEL KNIGHT has been a costly commodity of late but he will appreciate the drop in class and softer draw. The stable mate HYPERSPACE was an eye-catching winner two starts ago before backing it up with another victory which produced very good figures. The month between runs is the query but the stable know how to keep them fit.

Would have almost had STOICISM on top after two luckless runs if we were racing on a dry deck but his wet form is a concern and until he proves otherwise I’m happy to take him on.

Very even race but with even luck DEIMOS will be hard to beat, even if he gets posted he is tough so happy to have a bet on an each-way basis.

Selections:

DEIMOS – REBEL KNIGHT – HYPERSPACE – STOICISM

Betting Strategy:

$30 each-way DEIMOS

 

Race 5- The Big Guns

A small but select field of six to contest the feature race of the day. GREAT SHOT will take up the running and roll along in his customary role.

A dull race from a betting perspective but it’s always enjoyable watching GALAXY STAR strut her stuff. Those who used the $1.30 to boost their multis were made to sweat last start but the extra distance and the sting out of the ground should ensure a much more comfortable watch.

Toss of the coin for second between GREAT SHOT and GATTING. I’ll go with the former as he will roll along at his own pace and keep finding. The latter was a touch disappointing first up but as they say “form is temporary, class is permanent”, he will improve in the soft ground. MIZLECKI to run 4^th.

Not a betting race for mine, I’m more than happy to sit back and watch some quality horses do battle.

Selections:

GALAXY STAR – GREAT SHOT – GATTING – MIZLECKI

Betting Strategy:

No bet.

 

Race 6 – Four Hundred and Thirteen Days

This race will be on from the get go with SENORITA BONITA, GLASGOW GIRL and GRECO all out and out  leaders. Unlike a lot of races on this card I think there are few hopes.

It has been a long time between drinks but I think today’s the day for LORDHELPMERUN. He looked back to his best last start when recording good figures behind the star filly Flirtini. He should be ready to peak 3^rd up, the 1400m suits and he is drawn to get a gun run in behind a hot speed.

MOSCHARD is shooting for six straight thanks to a Pike gem last start. Noske replaces Pike and he will need to show the same patience as the wizard as I suspect he will be buried away in the field. Speaking of, ROYAL STATUE has the form on the board however I’m not sure what to make of his trials, beaten a combined margin of sixteen odd lengths. I’ll throw DOUBLE DIGIT in for 4^th who is a favourite of mine however I’d prefer to wait for the senior jockey to go on.

A race with not many chances, I’m pretty keen on LORDHELPMERUN, he ticks a lot of boxes and at anything close to $4 I’ll label him as my best of the day.

Selections:

LORDHELPMERUN – MOSCHARD – ROYAL STATUE – DOUBLE DIGIT

Betting Strategy:

$70 wins LORDHELPMERUN

 

Race 7- Bridesmaid Becomes the Bride

Starting to sound like a broken record but we have another very competitive affair on our hands here. SHAPITA and AL DI LA will both come across from their wide draws to ensure there is a genuine tempo.

CITY CIRCLE has started to make a habit of finding one better. In saying that finishing behind the likes of Dance Music and Flirtini isn’t anything to be embarrassed about and her figures are outstanding. She handles the wet and has the tactical speed to go forward and look for spot just behind the leaders, if Chris can get one off the fence early then expect her to be awfully hard to beat.

PEARLS AND PRAWNS is the x-factor in the race. She has a good starting price profile in listed grade which puts her in good stead for a race like this. Hasn’t trialled but is undefeated first up so expect a forward showing. BARON BOSTOCK got the job done on the back of a peach ride last start. The figures out of that race are strong and while the map is slightly awkward he can be in the finish with a bit of luck. If SHAPITA leads and controls then she has personal best figures which would win this race at a double figure quote.

I think the awkward draw is offset by the gun hoop so I’m happy to have something each-way on CITY CIRCLE in an even race.

Selections:

CITY CIRCLE – PEARLS AND PRAWNS – BARON BOSTOCK – SHAPTIA

Betting Strategy:

$30 each way CITY CIRCLE

 

Race 8- Head to the Bar

If the photos haven’t gone your way and you’re thinking of blasting out in the last then my tip to you is don’t. Go home and start thinking about Kalgoorlie because this race is a nightmare. That is of course if the second emergency FREE TRADE doesn’t run, if he does then ignore all the dribble below and open up the wallet!

They should run this at a frenetic pace with MERYN looking to lead at all costs while S Parham will have other ideas aboard THE NICCONIAN.

Going to put some value on top in the last and go with MULTIVERSE. Tabtouch let the work experience kid set the odds for this race by the looks with $51 being bet. He resumed with a super run when momentarily held up before hitting the line nicely over the sprint trip. The 1200m suits and he should get a great cart up behind the hot speed on track conditions that suit.

STAGEMAN is flying but just can’t buy a barrier. However write Pike off in the last at your own peril, with any luck he can figure. MERVYN will look the winner for a long way and might just keep finding while THE NICCONIAN can improve sharply at big odds after featuring heavily in the stewards report first up.

Happy to finish the day with a small each-way wager on MULTIVERSE. Unfortunately we won’t be seeing $51 but in a competitive race I’d expect they will bet double figures as they jump.

Selections:

MULTIVERSE – STAGEMAN – MERVYN – THE NICCONIAN

Betting Strategy:

$15 wins each-way MULTIVERSE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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