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The Ascot Preview 4th November news

The Ascot Preview 4th November

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 4 November, 2017

Race 1 - Party Night At Shafto Lane

Absolute belter of a card at Ascot with the features looking like extremely good betting races. We may even see a Winterbottom or Railway winner on this program.

Most of us would have had a few frothies at one of the lovely establishments on Shafto Lane over the journey, so it's good this iconic lane finally has a nag named after it. Unfortunately the trial didn't do a lot to enthuse those 'name' backers out there, but the Adam Durrant and William Pike combination is good enough for me in a race where nothing stands out.

The rest of the card required a fair deal of analysis, so this was an event which has been neglected a little by this writer.

Always enjoy a Paul Jordan two year old so Party Night would be the fitting quinella with Shafto Lane.

Selections

13 Shafto Lane
10 Party Night
8 Energy Pak

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 2 - Triple Play

Intriguing event which needs a bit of guesstimation. Bonny Be Good was huge first up before giving very little at her next three outings. On the back of that she changes trainer and drops from the 1400m back to the 1100m. She will have her work cut out for her from barrier 10. Get Over It is the next of the potential top liners in this event who resumes from a 59 day let up. Things do appear to be in this Saxon geldings favour, though I think the 1100m will be as short as he wants. Even with the inside gate he will likely end up in the second half of the field.

It is a race I think we can see a potential blowout and I am going to suggest three small win plays. Seeker is a first up specialist and while looking a little disappointing on the surface did only finish 4.8 lengths of Winterbottom favourite (Vega Magic won't be running) State Solicitor after sitting deep the trip. Kate Witten goes on here and this horse flew for her last campaign. It is a little on spec, but the $23 is worth a play. The second play will be in the same silks and that is Cuanzo. First up he was strong against Rhi's Rocket and second up he had minimal luck behind Celebrity Dream. Fred Kersley goes on here and with only 51kgs on his back, he can give this a massive shake. Is a bit of a non winner but I dare say the $11 won't last.

Last, but not least is Agarchar Cruz. Ashley Maley chucked this 1000m specialist in the deep end last start when he was unable to run out the 1400m. No surprise there. Back to 1100m here with another couple of rating points ditched and this is the type of race he wins. Previous 3 runs to that were very good. $34 is a nice price, though I would not be suprised to see even more on the day.

Selections

2 Seeker
8 Cuanzo
6 Agarchar Cruz

Suggested Bet: 25 wins Seeker (2). 25 wins Cuanzo (8). 15 wins Agarchar Cruz (6).

Race 3 - Great Dane

Tipped Danes Maree a few times in these musings and she has copped some seriously shocking rides. If you look at her most recent outing she sat 3 deep the trip, and laid out that badly you'd think she was a hooker in a previous life. From barrier 3, the key to this race is the fence. One gate inside her is Epic Grey. If she can cross Epic Grey and find the fence she will be very hard to run down with the 52kgs. If she sits on the outside of Epic Grey with the young apprentice on, I am worried as a racehorse she does too much wrong for the inexperienced jock. The $7 is enough for a cheeky each way nibble.

After Danes Maree, it is a belter of a race. Fabergino has had one run for one extremely dominant victory, when backed as if unbeatable. No trial here and oddly Jarrad Noske makes way for the inexperienced Fred Kersley, I really don't know what to make of this Maschino filly. From the gate Fred might be forced to go back with the pace inside of her. Don't think she can win unless she pings the lids and finds a spot in the front two.

Epic Grey and Cognac are super consistent, while Pearl Trade is the one 'over the odds' at $26. Hard Of Heart's last effort was huge. Would have found a spot for him in my numbers if he drew a gate.

Selections

5 Danes Maree
2 Epic Grey
7 Pearl Trade

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Danes Maree (5).

Race 4 - Natalie Imbruglia

Torn.

Trap For Fools. Time To Hunt. Confident the winner will come from one of those two with Master Magician the only logical danger I can see.

I tipped Time To Hunt as my best of 2017 last start and it is fair to say Jarrad Noske made one crucial error on him which cost him the premiership points. To his credit he has put his hand up for his decision to go to the rails on a horse who notoriously needs to wind up from about the 600m. Interestingly he has drawn barrier 2, with the likely leader underneath him. This will mean the fence is again where he will likely land. How he handles this son of Henrythenavigator will be interesting viewing. As a general rule of thumb I always prefer to watch a horse over the 2000m journey for the first time so will put Trap For Fools on top.

The rise from 52.5kgs to 58kgs is a hefty impost. But, it is important to note while he received a 5 point penalty for that win, Tayla Stone could only claim 1.5kgs of her 3kg claim (3 ratings points), so the rise in weight when factoring in the drop in class is actually not a bad swing. The Already Famous and Sonnen form is far superior to these. At around $5 he looks a pretty safe each way bet.

Selections

1 Trap For Fools
8 Time To Hunt
3 Master Magician

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Trap For Fools (1).

Race 5 - La La Land

La Mouline is historically the oldest vineyard in Cote-Rotie, with walls dating back 2,400 years, and today its vines are also the oldest in the region. Don't say I don't teach you things.

This Pike mount appeared to get all the favours a week ago, when scraping the Dulux and knocking off Cruachan on the line. While it was the shortest way home, I see it as the best run of the race. Not many horses can accelerate on the fence into a gap of that size. The rise to 1400m should suit. The $1.95 is not enough for me to get interested however.

Cruachan is knocking on the door, however last campaign he did seem to lose interest after a couple of runs in, so it will be interesting to see if this son of Commands handles his third run this preparation and rise to 1400m. Star Value has been heavily commissioned while racing without luck, while Lorentinio is probably the horse 'over' the odds in this. $13 for a horse who makes his own luck out in front and is yet to miss a place at both the track and distance does look generous.

Forseen up to the 1400m will run a better race than it's $51 price tag suggests. A maddy for those who have done there ass in the 9 group races at Flemington.

Selections

7 La Mouline
2 Lorentinio
11 Forseen

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 6 - Railway Stakes Your Claim Here

Absolute cracker edition of the Asian Beau Stakes. Cosmic Storm is your favourite and rightly so. You could consider this Street Sense mare a little stiff last start and say with the run Silverstream had she probably wins. William Pike has chosen her over the up and coming Royal Star in what I dare say was not an easy choice at all. It genuinely is impossible to split the pair due to the such contrasting nature of their form lines.

Variation was huge in defeat first up at Bunbury and will appreciate the services of Bradley Parnham back on board. He should have this War Chant gelding just off the pace from the good draw. Get the feeling Tradesman might have lost a bit of his freshness and we'll look for him third or fourth up. I cannot see Meteoroid winning and the weight swing doesn't help, but her run in the Northerly was huge. She could get that soft cart up on Corporate Larrikins back. Worse bets at $20.

Selections

2 Cosmic Storm
8 Royal Star
1 Meteoroid

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 - Gangemi Goer

The Prince Of Wales is one of the traditional lead ups to the Winterbottom. I don't think we will see the winner in this race and would be awfully surprised if the winner doesn't come from over East. State Solicitor is probably the only hope we have of keeping the first prize cheque in WA.

Durendal doesn't have a super flattering first up record and has never won at the 1000m. I think both of these stats are a touch misleading as his two first up efforts in WA have been huge. Last campaign he carried the big weights in the sprints and is the horse most suited to the WFA conditions here. I would have loved a better barrier, but he can still win. Going to call him the best each way bet of the day.

Dainty Tess will appreciate the stronger jockey going on top and is the obvious selection for second. Caiprinha is the poorly weighted horse (at WFA) who has disappointed twice in a row. Still she goes up the $3.80 favourite. I'd probably not suggest a bet at $10. Profit Street and Volkoff will hit the line hard, while Dream Lifter is suited at the WFA conditions.

Selections

2 Durendal
9 Dainty Tess
3 Dream Lifter

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Durendal (2).

Race 8 - Oliver's Mile

Oliver's Travels has had some issues for new trainer Simon Miller (his first 5 runs and a trial were spaced over 4 months), but he clearly has some ability. He stepped up in class last time out when comfortably accounting for Lorentinio. This is again a massive step up in grade, but I do believe he is absolutely crying out for the mile of this event.

Pinzu was slightly disappointing last start, though will have admirers again. Whether this fellow has had enough this campaign or needs to be forgiven for one quite day at the office is for the jury to decide. Properantes and Diablerie were stiff last start, while I don't think Pushin' Shapes is the type of horse who will be suited by Tayla Stone. Can't win this.

Selections

10 Olivers Travels
4 Diablerie
1 Pinzu

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

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User thefalcon

thefalcon 04 Nov | Posts: 14494

durandels 673 losing streak is a worry..pike on profit street will do me thankyou very much.