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Ascot R7. Sky Racing - WA Guineas - Ascot 25 November 2017 preview

Ascot R7. Sky Racing - WA Guineas - Ascot 25 November 2017

Terry Leighton | Fri 24 November, 2017

1600m | 4:15PM

One of the more competitive Guineas in recent memory with neither the guys nor the gals establishing themselves as the dominant sex ahead of the three year old feature. The problem with being a WA based racing enthusiast is the lack of all in betting. So it’s fair to say when the markets opened a month ago, all it took was a nag to sneeze for me to have a ‘a little bit on’.

Let’s have a look at each runner and a likely speed map:

Achernar Star – Simon Miller (IGA – everything’s a special) doesn’t mind a little plonk on his horses and IGA clearly was giving punters a big lead with the recent betting move for Achernar Star at his first go over the 1400m journey. He was ridden an absolute treat on that day when he found the coveted one by one spot from a wide gate and ran a creditable second. The betting move may suggest he feels this son of Gingerbread Man will improve with distance. It also might suggest he just loves calling everything he trains a ‘special’. From barrier 3 with male model Craig Williams on board he really should get every chance in the run, but I do think he might be a length off some of these.

Debellatio – I’m not going to call him the forgotten horse of this race, but is probably going a little bit under the radar. His previous two efforts over the 1400m involved a Group 3 win and the other a strong win when race fitness was questioned. Resumed from a short let-up when tracking 3 and 4 wide the trip and was found wanting late. The 5-length margin doesn’t look good on paper, but he was entitled to be beaten further. Should have derived fitness from that run, should get a soft run from the inside marble and is a live hope.

Money Maher – A little bit surprised with the current quote, but it is probably more an indication of the lack of confidence elsewhere in the market. I know a few smart punters out there who hopped on at the $41 after his slashing Fairetha win will be hoping that was no fluke. Has showed immense ability in his career to date and a repeat of that effort will probably just about win this. Previous form doesn’t fill me with confidence for this type of event, but looks to have come back a different animal off that short break. On his last run, a deserved favourite.

Salubrious – Taking Railway Stakes winner Silverstream (we can dream right?) to within a half length is very strong form when dropping back to your own age group. Needed a good gate and got just that, this son of Wanted has taken a very unique path to this feature race. I expect the tactics will be to take a sit to ensure a strong mile is ran, but I do think he is a better horse when dictating. Another who would not surprise me if he won.

Gaulois – The one raider in this year’s event and not a colt I know a whole lot about. Has been given a real visitor draw and you’d expect Bunbury’s own, Damian Lane, to look to fire him out and attempt to cross. Sparks should be flying. His effort in the Group 3 Carbine Club on Derby Day was huge and I dare say the current quote of $17 is one which won’t last. If our lot aren’t as good as we all think, and he gets across with some petrol left in the tank, he could blouse them.

Reykjavik – Finally a horse I am happy putting a line through. Is a serviceable type who rarely runs a bad race, but is a few lengths off being a top liner. Can’t have him here.

Roganella – Another I am not too keen on, though tellingly Chris Parnham has opted to ride him over Sophia’s Secret and Achernar Star. Stepped up to the mile against the older horses for the first time at his most recent start and gave them a galloping exhibition. That was a very weak form race and previous form behind Three Secrets is not good enough to win this. May have improved and the Chris Parnham appointment is a big tell.

Turbo Power – Out of it’s depth. Neville just wanting to be a part of the big races.

Arcadia Prince – The question surrounding Arcadia Prince, is how much did that bumping duel with Reyjkavik take out of him last time out? I am in a forgiving mood (I’ve just seen Cameron Bancroft edge one behind) and think he may have just had the wind knocked out of him. The appointment of Ollie is a big plus and I expect he will be looking for the three-wide line midfield. A very interesting runner.

Athlete – See Turbo Power comment.

Three Secrets – Another reason I find it hard to figure out Chris Parnhams choice of Roganella over Sophia’s Secret is the form line through this horse. Roganella despite having every chance was unable to beat Three Secrets, while Sophia’s Secret after copping a lot of midrace pressure beat him by over three lengths under a hold. I presume a lot of the question marks are based around Sophia running a strong mile. Anyway, this Steve Wolfe trained galloper is improving with each run and has claims. Not one I am overly interested in.

Vital Dancer – Think the 1600m will be a bridge too far for this Vital Equine gelding who found the 1400m of the Fairetha a little too lengthy. Will be ridden with a sit here to try and see out the trip, but think the camp missed a trick by not attacking the 1200m Placid Ark Stakes instead.

Art Series – Has jumped at double figures at all four starts this campaign, continually being underrated by punters (myself included). Her win in the Champion Fillies was huge after encountering trouble on several occasions in the straight. Is yet to be unplaced in 10 career starts, Douglas Whyte goes on and must be a live chance after winning a key lead up event.

Perfect Jewel – Unlike Mikimoto, bred to get the mile and should be eating up the ground late. The barrier draw has not been at all kind to the Bob Peters camp for the two major features, but this Redoute’s Choice filly has the right pilot to overcome it. Will be doing her best work over the final 100m and would be no surprise to see her finish right over the top of them.

Private Dancer – A very particular type of mare who the Trevor Andrews camp have now figured out. Unfortunately, doesn’t have the best barrier manners and nor does she have the sharpest sprint. But one thing she can do better than any other horse in this field is sustain a lengthy run. The barrier draw (12) suits her as she should be able to hop into the three-wide line and I would love to see an early move at about the 800m where she looks to go around them. May lack that killer blow to win a race like this, but if they go to sleep out in front and she can find the lead on straightening, she will not easily be reeled in. One which looks a backable quote at the $35 available. She’s tough.

Sophia’s Secret – The forgotten filly. Scratched at the gates last week may be a blessing in disguise for those all-in WA Guineas punters (yes, me included). Her previous form is possibly the best in this race. A hard held 3.3 length victory over Three Secrets who then came out and beat Roganella, who then came out and won a Saturday race by over 3 lengths herself. Sophia followed this up with a 1.5 length (hard held) victory over Sovereign Trade. He then came out at his next start, sat three deep the journey, and won with something in hand. The horse who ran third (by 4 lengths), behind Sophia’s Secret (Special Alert), came out and ran a close 4th in the Champion Fillies. Every form line around Sophia’s Secret looks phenomenal. The question over her, is the ability to run a strong 1600m and I believe she will look to take a sit here to alleviate those fears. Her last effort was huge (in my opinion better than Mikimoto and Perfect Jewel as she was forced to do the bullocking work) when Chris Parham went for a home a little early. Josh Parr will be looking to find the three-wide line here and unleash this daughter of Written Tycoon. $20 as an each way price looks huge.

Speed Map

Expecting Achernar Star (barrier 3), Salubrious (2), Gaulois (17), Turbo Power (10), Three Secrets (11), Vital Dancer (12) and Art Series (14) to all race prominently, though I can see most of those wanting to take a sit to ensure they run out a strong mile. Gaulois will be the colt with the most determination to lead, and although it may take Damian Lane a while to do so, should find the front or at worst the outside of the leader.

Debellatio should get the run of the race (though risks being 3 or 4 horses back on the pegs if his questionable barrier behaviour is in play) from barrier 1 while Salubrious and Achernar Star should get charmed runs. I don’t see either wanting to be involved in an early speed battle from their good draws. Art Series will have her work cut out for her early to find a spot from barrier 8, it’s essential to her chances she finds cover.

Money Maher (11), Roganella (15), Arcadia Prince (13), Perfect Jewel (16) and Private Dancer (14) will all be looking for spots in the three-wide line with Sophia’s Secret (12) being the questionable speed map galloper. Relatively confident she will look to find a spot in the same line, though may utilise her early speed to be closer to the pace. The key will be finding cover without using any fuel. These 6 should have the last crack.

Selections

16 Sophia’s Secret
14 Perfect Jewel
2 Debellatio

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Sophia’s Secret (16).
 

Suggested Bet

16. SOPHIA'S SECRET

$25 x $25

All bets represent a maximum confidence rating of $100 expenditure.

Terry Leighton's Bets for the Meeting

RNoRunnerWPResultReturn
1 5 RHI'S ROCKET $80 X $0.00
2 5 CASH ON CALL $55 3rd $0.00
3 6 TRADESMAN $80 X $0.00
4 2 VOLKOFF $70 2nd $0.00
5 5 HARD OF HEART $40 $40 X $0.00
6 5 DON'TGETCAUGHT $10 $20 X $0.00
7 16 SOPHIA'S SECRET $25 $25 X $0.00
8 3 TOM MELBOURNE (IRE) $30 3rd $0.00
$475 Total Bets$390$85$0.00
Profit/Loss$-475.00

Recent Comments

User hash

hash 27 Nov | Posts: 5240

not sure who he is or how well he tips but.... Aaron Mills’ top three to follow from Ascot November 25There were some excellent runs in the Group I Railway Stakes on Saturday however one stands head and shoulders above the others as we head towards the Ki...

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 26 Nov | Posts: 4947

@Chelsea not a bad Tab double dividend on your two selections...Great Shot - Push To Pass $1457. One of the bigger double dividends have seen for awhile.

User Tivers

Tivers 26 Nov | Posts: 6242

Doesn’t say anything re 7 days in the rule quoted ? What they have done this time is specified must trial twice, which will force the 7 days (+) obviously...

User RIO

RIO 26 Nov | Posts: 13107

the person that I chatted with was talking about failing to load...But whatever it was, under LR64(a) it is up to the stewards to impose those sanctions and in Sophia's instance they chose to allow it to trial on the Monday and then race on the Saturday in an ...

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 26 Nov | Posts: 4685

Maybe the 7 day stand downs are for a scratching by the vet (different to failing to load).2 different circumstances, perhaps interpreted as the same thing.

User RIO

RIO 26 Nov | Posts: 13107

Nor can I, but others have to wait at least a week to trial, to be cleared to race again....It may be a special condition the stewards have put on for whatever reason..I think this covers it....and once again it is up to the stewards discretion....ie, "lets pl...

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 26 Nov | Posts: 4685

 I am reliably informed (haven't checked it as i don't really know where to look) that when this happens you CAN NOT trial the horse within 7 days of the race.Even if it was a rule (don`t think it is), as long as you are cleared prior to nominating, can`t...

User RIO

RIO 26 Nov | Posts: 13107

So the Guineas.....and Sophia's Secret.She was scratched at the barriers in the Champions Fillies due to failing to load. I am reliably informed (haven't checked it as i don't really know where to look) that when this happens you CAN NOT trial the horse within...

User thefalcon

thefalcon 26 Nov | Posts: 14494

hashie you can shout me a few  :!!

User hash

hash 25 Nov | Posts: 5240

Ascot R9. Tabtouch Perth Cup - New Year's Day Handicap - Terry LeightonPush To Pass is far better than a $40 chance. If stuff has hit the fan in the first 8 races, this may be the hail mary you’ve been looking for.   10. FRIARESQUE - 4. FIRST AFFAI...