Who's Online
0 Members & 20 Non Members
Full Belmont Preview 22nd July
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Race 1 - To Swim Or Not To Swim
I've held off writing this til Friday afternoon, hoping I had a clearer idea of the likely track conditions. Unfortunately I am none the wiser, with rain still predicted but not yet arriving. I will allow for a Soft5 which is very Switzerland of me, but is probably the safest way to go.
Not the most exciting of races to kick off the day with Flying Time just being withdrawn. The Celt should lead them up comfortably with one of the Jim Taylor trained pair of Flying Roar or Recoiled sitting on his outside. I think The Celt will be too strong for those two and it will come down to one of Just Magical or Candlelight Star trying to reel this son of Planet Five in late. Just Magical has the dreaded bar shoes on (for now) while Candlelight Star hasn't really flattered for Justin Warwick just yet. The blinkers do go on and there was money around last start however which is usually a big pointer that a win is just around the corner for this stable.
Selections
4 The Celt
2 Candlelight Star
7 Recoiled
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 2 - You Know Nothing John Snow
One Game Of Thrones reference. That is it. I promise.
Atacama Sky and Snow Lord look the class animals here. Happy calling it a two horse race with a strong lean to Pike's mount, Snow Lord. This Williams trained gelding has never raced on a rain affected track, but has trialled twice on them and been highly impressive. The wet track should suit. From the gate, and due to the fact 5 of the 9 horses engaged like to lead, I think we will see Willy Pike look for a spot midfield or worse. I suspect unless Atacama Sky is fully wound up or gets a very soft lead (which on paper should not be the case) then this is your best bet of the day. The market between these two will tell a story pre-race. The $3.10 for Snow Lord is well over my quote.
Selections
2 Snow Lord
1 Atacama Sky
3 Imperial Venus
Suggested Bet: 100 wins Snow Lord (2)
Race 3 -
There is more speed in this than an Eastern European rave. Cognac, Wacked Out, My Demi, Danes Maree and Summers Dream have all recently won races or trials when leading throughout. Danes Maree is $3 to $2 in the early markets but the fact she has to cross all the above bar Summers Dream makes her a huge risk. The appointment of Pike is not a major one as the tactics will very simply be to jump and run. I think she will sit three deep the trip, so I am going to knock her and leave her out of my placings.
I'm not sure if she has the class of this lost, but Foxy Princess could be the value runner here (currently $25 with most corporates). She won at her first career start on a soft track when sitting 3 deep without cover throughout and still won comfortably. Not many two year olds can do that, regardless of the opposition. She finished in the first half of the Karrakatta field and has drawn well enough here to be just off what is likely to be a hot speed. Worth a small spec. Demons 'N' Dust another at big odds who can run a race here.
Selections
11 Foxy Princess
10 Demons 'N' Dust
3 My Demi
Suggested Bet: 15 wins and 15 places Foxy Princess (11)
Race 4 - Goodbye The Old Boy Zuboyne
The name really isn't relevant to this race at all, but I wanted to mention the old fella's forced retirement as he nears 13 years old. His slashing run from near last on Wednesday suggests the rule may be a little archaic and perhaps should be more up to the stewards discretion. Could you imagine them telling Craig Bradley had to retire at 35?
Another scamper full of speed with Zeinite and Queenie O'Lara likely to make their way to the top in this event. This is a very similar field to those who have done battle twice in the past month. Dutch Spy is the major unknown in this field and was a brilliant trial winner recently on a rain affected track. There was a couple of spirited betting moves for this So Secret rig last campaign, so I suspect the Paul Roberts yard have a high opinion. We will speculate with him on top. Spiritual Eyes was backed 11s to 4s first up, found the front comfortably then gave up quicker than Bernard Tomic. If she comes out and wins here I won't be overly happy (yes, had the 11s).
Selections
6 Dutch Spy
3 Bells Tower
2 Cherie Amour
Suggested Bet: 25 wins Dutch Spy (6)
Race 5 - Grey On A Grey Day
With the scratching of Halushi, Verdello Blue should have very little trouble in controlling the tempo here. This evergreen 10 year old has had another stellar campaign, without finding the race with his name on it. This one does. He should lead this event comfortably with his most obvious danger on paper Jetoomy (who meets him 2kgs worse off here) drawing the widest gate. Lucy will probably be giving him a 6 or 7 length head start on straightening. Caralabek is a noted wet tracker and Joyous Affair will improve here - note that Autier has opted for her ($26) over Queen Of Tease ($13). But, at the $13, Verdello Blue comfortably represents my best each way bet of the day.
1 Verdello Blue
2 Jetoomy
4 Caralabek
Suggested Bet: 50 wins 50 places Verdello Blue (1)
Race 6 - Pass
When Slick Mover opens up favourite for a Saturday event you know the race has about as much talent as Collingwood's forward line. Slick Mover should have been beaten by Chhaya last start at Kalgoorlie and has drawn barrier 12 here. $4. Gee whizz. Phantom Choice could lead this and has reasonable wet track form. Bevel can improve off a short let-up from the good gate and the low weight, while Proclamation would clearly be my on top selection if the race was over a mile plus. The drop back to 1400 (from the 1700 last time out) is a massive deterrent. If you have as little respect for money as I do then consider 50 cents each way on Via Ring A Rah @ $100+ on betfair to run a big race for the in form Ashley Maley yard.
Selections
6 Phantom Choice
8 Fire Detonator
14 Via Ring A Rah
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 7 - No Variation, No Worries
Gatting's win against Rosewood Hill last week is a blueprint the Mc Auliffe yard will look to replicate here. The problem being, Gatting is unlikely to receive the same cart up he did last week. I suspect from around the 600m, potentially even earlier, the passionate Frenchman will set him off on a searching run around the field. I still think he will be too strong. Western Temple should get every opportunity to turn the tables after drawing barrier one. Gatting will need to be a several length better horse to beat him at the barriers and I think he is. Elegant Blast has been the hard luck story horse this campaign. Being held up or sitting wide has been a consistent theme in this Blackfriar fillies stewards reports and I suspect from the better gate she might have a more favourable run. I preferred her last run to Fontainebleaus. If Autier has a rough time on Gatting, she is capable of winning this at double figure odds ($13 currently).
Selections
1 Gatting
11 Elegant Blast
2 Western Temple
Suggested Bet: 10 wins 40 places Elegant Blast (11)
Race 8 - Here We Go Again
I've run out of Baraki Beats gags. He tires me. He hurts me. But, I still love him. Treat me mean, keep me keen. I am not sure if this is his race however being the last of the day I know I will be supremely confident after my 7th Asahi. Barrier two may not be a blessing for him here as if he misses the kick he won't have the room to navigate his way to the front. In saying that, if he doesn't miss the kick and lands on top he is in this up to his eyeballs. The drier the track the better. For that reason I will attack him with a win only investment here. Law of averages. Luke's Gold keeps going from strength to strength though has had a month off due to a minor foot injury. Be wary.
Selections
6 Baraki Beats
9 Politics
5 Astronomite
Suggested Bet: 50 wins Baraki Beats (6)
Comments