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Ascot Preview, 6th Dec
West Australian Racing
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R1. Thunderbolt 1000 - Gary Wright
A great start to the day, a small but classy field of sprinters line up here. Can probably make some case for five of the runners, but in the end its hard to tip against Shining Knight, his two runs this campaign have been brilliant, a really good first up win in the Colonel Reeves followed by another top run in the Winterbottom two weeks ago, you can see him sitting just off the pace and finishing this race off very well, Main danger appears to be Cool Trade, she put in a massive run last start when wide all the way and sticking on very well at the end of the Jungle Mist, beating home all but Antique Belle that day, and she does carry a light weight into this race. Hussy By Choice probably has a duel up front with Benito for the lead, he is down in weight from a slightly disappointing fifth in the Jungle Mist but is too talented to be left out of calculations here, and Benito returned to the track impressively when winning last week, but boy, he has been thrown into the deep end here, be interesting to see how he does go against such a class field. Pinnici raced well in the winter months as well, it shows the class of the field that I cant fit him in anywhere in the top four on his return today.
1. SHINING KNIGHT - 6. COOL TRADE - 3. HUSSY BY CHOICE
SUGGESTED BET - 1. SHINING KNIGHT $30
A great start to the day, a small but classy field of sprinters line up here. Can probably make some case for five of the runners, but in the end its hard to tip against Shining Knight, his two runs this campaign have been brilliant, a really good first up win in the Colonel Reeves followed by another top run in the Winterbottom two weeks ago, you can see him sitting just off the pace and finishing this race off very well, Main danger appears to be Cool Trade, she put in a massive run last start when wide all the way and sticking on very well at the end of the Jungle Mist, beating home all but Antique Belle that day, and she does carry a light weight into this race. Hussy By Choice probably has a duel up front with Benito for the lead, he is down in weight from a slightly disappointing fifth in the Jungle Mist but is too talented to be left out of calculations here, and Benito returned to the track impressively when winning last week, but boy, he has been thrown into the deep end here, be interesting to see how he does go against such a class field. Pinnici raced well in the winter months as well, it shows the class of the field that I cant fit him in anywhere in the top four on his return today.
1. SHINING KNIGHT - 6. COOL TRADE - 3. HUSSY BY CHOICE
SUGGESTED BET - 1. SHINING KNIGHT $30
Comments
Tread warily in this race, early season two year old races are probably not the best to be investing heavily in, we have half the field having their first race start here. May just go on speculation here with Ningbo, he was heavily supported at his first start a fortnight ago and its fair to say didnt live up to that hype whatsoever that day, but its hard to ignore the fact punters sent her out a $ 1.70 elect . Lets hope she has got that bad run out of her system and performs to her obvious potential today. Invincible Man won very nicely on debut and may start favorite here from a nice draw for the Parnham stable, he looks to have good ability. Chanzig won very well at his first start, anyone wo was on him that day will be following up no doubt, fair to say he was a surprise winner that day, but he did have trial form to recommend him. Jevilla won a trial easily on Monday and makes her debut today, possibly at a good each way price, but as said this isnt really a big punting race.
6. NINGBO - 2. INVINCIBLE MAN - 1. CHANZIG
Quite a few of these are going onwards from the Guineas and upwards in distance which makes it an interesting race. One horse that has been racing in terrific form is Say Geronimo, he has started at generous odds in the Fairetha and the Guineas at his last two starts and run on pwerfully in those strong races, it appears the 1800 metres may be to his liking this afternoon.Once again with the depth in this field each way odds may be on the cards for punters and he does look set to run a very good race. Say Geronimo did beat the likely favorite in Tonto home in the Guineas and does meet him a little better on weights in this race. No doubt Tonto must be included in our thoughts here, he is another that should be suited by the rise in distance and he does have a nice draw in this field today. Top Show is another who may run a bold race here, she should be approaching her best now and as good a field this is, its not the Guineas field, expect improvement from her this afternoon. Dancing Express is another been running good races without winning of late, she probably drops out here but will be running on.
3. SAY GERONIMO (NZ) - 1. TONTO - 8. TOP SHOW
SUGGESTED BET - 3. SAY GERONIMO (NZ) $20 x $30
One of the best races on a great days racing here, you could just about include all ten entrants in your thoughts. In the end the old saying "Winning form is good form" is the reason for selecting Libertys Gem to win. Trainer Simon Miller does have a huge opinion of this horse, and why wouldnt he, only beaten once after racing in very good fields. His last start was a very good win in the Placid Ark after leading all the way, he gets the barrier to do so again today, should jump straight to the front from barrier three and give them something to run down. Outlaw Pete has been a little unlucky lately, certainly in the Fairetha, and he will no doubt be running on strongly over the concluding stages again here. Hobart Jones is certainly the weight tip, the Karrakatta winner has been ok in two starts since resuming, but the 3.5kgs drop in weight is enticing to his prospects of running a real bold race today. Malibu Style ran a great race in the Placid Ark and Cuanzo returns after a minor setback, they really add depth to a very strong three year old field in this edition of the Group 3 Lee Steere.
3. LIBERTY'S GEM - 4. OUTLAW PETE - 1. HOBART JONES
SUGGESTED BET - 3. LIBERTY'S GEM $30
As you would expect a crack field of fillies and mares here, but I think we can back My Sister Lil with some confidence. She returned to the track when charging home in the Jungle Mist a fortnight ago, the extra distance here suits her down to the ground and you just expect her to be taking ground off the rest of the field over the concluding stages today. Her only unplaced run was when fourth in the Natasha in the autumn, she won second up last preparation, regular hoop Ben Paterson is aboard once again, she has drawn well, she ticks a lot of boxes this afternoon. Miss Rose De Lago hasnt quite raced in her form pre Melbourne, she led them up in the Carbine, and probably went too quick out front that day and had not much left in the tank at the end of the race, from barrier two she probably leads again today and is rated more conservatively, she is a class horse and always in the main chances of whicever race she contests. Real Charm won by as far as anything we have seen in recent years last week, took off before the turn and showed them a clean pair of heels, this field does have a lot more depth of course, but hard to ignore a win like that one and Arcadia Rose is always in with a chance in any race she contests also, but My Sister Lil does look something to bet on today.
6. MY SISTER LIL - 1. MISS ROSE DE LAGO - 9. REAL CHARM
SUGGESTED BET - 6. MY SISTER LIL $40 x $40
On paper you would think Magnifisio goes on her winning ways today in what is another cracker jack race, but I just get the feeling the 1400 metres suits Testamezzo a little more, he was charging home in the Winterbottom as he normally does, and you would imagine is more value from a punting perspective than Magnifisio might be today, so we will tip him on an each way basis, with only three unplaced runs from fourteen starts you can almost guarantee he will bank another cheque for the owners. He is drawn nicely so probably lobs into a midfield position and set for a final sprint at them. Obviously you cant knock the form of Magnifisio, the conquerer of all those Eastern Staes invaders a fortnight ago, she is also drawn perfectly to take up a good spot in running and add another group race to her resume, in the end just the perceived extra value tips the scales in Testamezzos favour here. Watermans Bay seemed to appreciate being back at Ascot in the Winterbottom, off a slightly disappointing Victorian campaign he returned to his best form, and did protest unsuccesfully against the winner that day. Antique Belle won the Jungle Mist very impressively a fortnight ago, this field does have a lot of depth to it but she will always be running on, this is another top race on a great days racing.
3. TESTAMEZZO - 8. MAGNIFISIO - 1. WATERMANS BAY
SUGGESTED BET - 3. TESTAMEZZO $25 x $25
Most of these seem to be on a collision course on the first day of the New Year in the Perth Cup. Real Love has been most impressive this campaign finishing no further back than second, and she is right in this race as a big winning chance today. Of course she ran third in the Derby last season so the distance here does tend to suit her down to the ground, she can get a fair way back but is always finishing on in her races and she may just have the class on the others in this edition of the Queens Cup, a race we dont see here too often. The other major chance looks to be Son Of Something, he probably did too much work last start which dulled his finishing sprint, he was certainly there at the 150 metres, but the tough run told in the end, from a nice draw here he shouldnt doo much work in running, he looks the main danger to Real Love. Lucciola looked to be coming back into form last start when a close fifth to Global Flirt, she and jockey Lucy Warwick were the stars of Belmont earlier this year stringing eight wins on the trot together, look for her to keep improving as the distances increase, and one at good odds may be Red Blast, he has been up for a while but continues to run just behind the placegetters, only narrowly beaten in the Global Flirt race a fortnight ago.
12. REAL LOVE - 7. SON OF SOMETHING - 11. LUCCIOLA (IRE)
SUGGESTED BET - 12. REAL LOVE $40
The weight for age championship of the state has brought together a terrific field as you would expect. All of these starters have had great racing careers, some are on the cusp of greatness maybe. Surely we will get each way value in whoever we support, I am going to select the mare Balmont Girl to be victorious and buck the odds, as only a few mares have won this race since its inception. However Balmont Girl seems to have come back in better form that she was in during the Autumn when she won the Oaks, her run in the Railway was sensational. She should come into barrier twelve with the emergencies coming out, and can lob in a good position with some luck in running here, if she does she will be mighty hard to beat. Moriarty ran a super trial for this race in the Railway when rattling home for third, he looks the nominal favorite, the only reason he isnt the outright selection is he just may get a little far back again and may struggle to make up the ground in the straight, but boy it was an impressive Railway run. Disposition lost no friends, only his unbeaten record in the Guineas, and as a three year old carries no weight under the conditions of this race, unfortunately he hasnt fared too well with the draw here, but we know Pike isnt called the Wizard for nothing. Pheidon looks the pacemaker here, at least we know he should be out of any trouble if assuming that position. I could write something on every horse having some sort of show in this race, but have tried to narrow it down to four, a terrific Kingston Town on the racing menu this afternoon.
13. BALMONT GIRL - 2. MORIARTY (IRE) - 16. DISPOSITION
SUGGESTED BET - 13. BALMONT GIRL $20 x $30
Expect a wide betting race for the final event today, seemingly plenty of chances in this race. Windswept is probably overdue for a win in this state, and whilst this race is still a good Saturday race, it isnt the Colonel Reeves or the Winterbottom, which is where Windswept had his last two starts. A good draw and the obvious drop in class brings him into this race with very good claims and he must be one of the main chances. Another former Eastern States galloper from the Toby Bairstow stable in Reflectance looks to have good prospects as well, his last start was a beauty behind Ysmael and he looks set to run a bold race here this afternoon also. The form horse of the race is Ruling Force, he has won his last two races albeit in weaker company, but you have to like the picket fence he is building up against his name. Vengabus led them up and was a bit disappointing last start, we know he is better than that, and will be an interesting speed battle here with the Miller trained horses, as Temporise will no doubt try and cross the field from his awkward barrier. Veeten has a good first up record also, may be one to throw into novelty bets in this last race on a great days racing.
6. WINDSWEPT - 2. REFLECTANCE - 5. RULING FORCE
SUGGESTED BET - 6. WINDSWEPT $20 x $20
Donga on Toppa Dawozza for the first time in a long time may be an omen...stable is flying atm
EDIT..... how does a horse like Top Show get 0.5kg advantage over Orright and Boom Time which is still a maiden?? what am i missing @carey or anyone?
EDIT x 2.............it's a filly you twit!!!!
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