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Ascot Preview, 17th March
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Race 1 – Amateur Hour
After watching the first two races at Geraldton, I am expecting to see an ad placement on Seek shortly. BARRIER ATTENDANTS REQUIRED. Absolute amateur hour on the crayfish coast. It is a regular gripe of mine (and many a WA race fan) how poor Western Australian racing can continue to be in this aspect of a multi-million-dollar industry. I just want to see a race start less than 6 minutes after the advertised start time. And I want to see horses who are clearly not fully in the barriers to be removed and scratched (Audience, race 1 – worth watching a replay). Is this too much to ask?
We welcome the Irish to Ascot on Saturday where the Guinness is cold, and the dress sense is questionable. My best bet of the day would probably be to take the over 14.5 Irishmen kicked out before the start of the quaddie. Looks to be a gift at the $1.90.
We have a stack of pace in the first event and it will be interesting to see who crosses and finds the fence. I suspect Round The Point will come across and do so, though Saturia is drawn underneath him and can go quickly. Tango Ora is probably the quickest of the lot and will be coming across, along with Wee Cent in a mad dash for the front. How To Fly does look the class animal of this event and all things being equal should be winning. I do have concerns about the 28 days between runs, big weight impost and potential for him to end up three back the pegs. He can still win from that spot, but Pike will need to use all his Wizardry.
Suspect we will see a three-wide line here and it may well be the place to be if the leaders have had enough at about the 900m. Mizlecki is the filly mapped to get the nice run in the three-wide line and has been tuned up with two very soft trials. First up last campaign she ran an unlucky fourth beating home Tango Ora & Saturia who she meets again here. Renee Forrest piloted her that day and she didn’t get much out of this Lope De Vega filly. Happy having an each way play on her at around the $6 mark.
Selections
4 Mizlecki
1 How To Fly
2 Tango Ora
Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Mizlecki (4).
Race 2 – Dustin Martin
Speed horses Gee Boss, Three Votes & More Aces should shoot out of the gates like Matt Shirvington here, while the rest of the field will be running like Oscar Pistorious without his prosthetics.
The winner should come from Glenny Boss or Dustin Martin (hoping you get the Three Votes reference, it isn’t difficult) and I am leaning toward Dusty fending off the challenge of the more race fit gelding. First up for a tick over a year, Three Votes came back with a soft but slick (58.90 for the 1000m) trial, finishing second to the subsequent centurion victor, New Time. I think this Fastnet Rock gelding will have the pace to cross More Aces, which should leave Gee Boss parked on his outside. Nothing else will get a look in.
At $3.70, in what I consider a genuine two horse race, he’s worth a small spec.
Selections
5 Three Votes
3 Gee Boss
8 More Aces
Suggested Bet: 40 wins Three Votes (5).
Race 3 – Karrakatta Clash
Not sure if it is just me, but this Karrakatta Plate is shaping as one of the most intriguing in recent memory. The likes of Assetro, Driftstar, Valour Road and Nocelle have all established themselves as fancies for the Group 2, but the thing which has struck me is the fact that none of the real ‘big guns’ have met. Princess Pierro was a late scratching from the Magic Millions when she should have met Valour Road. Here we have two horses with big wraps on them doing battle with Agent Pippa and Lady Cosmology to lock horns. Throw in Princess Pierro from the inside gate and we finally will have a strong form race leading into the Karrakatta.
This will firmly be a no bet race for me, with Agent Pippa and Lady Cosmology opening at very thin quotes. I have a clear lean towards Agent Pippa after a soft trial win, while Lady Cosmology is coming off some type of set-back which saw her scratched a few weeks ago. It has been 6 weeks since she trialled. Pretty confident the Pearce trained Agent Pippa will consolidate her claim as one of the Karrakatta favourites, but I’m wary about hopping into a price too thin when Simon Miller has a supposed ‘boom’ youngster in the event.
Selections
5 Agent Pippa
9 Lady Cosmology
7 Princess Pierro
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 4 – Rolling Stone
Tayla Stone is arguably the most talented apprentice on front running types and this looks a perfect race for her mount, Belter. A fortnight ago, she tried to run them off their legs and nearly succeeded, being grabbed late by the talented Blackline. I expect her to be more circumspect here with no real obvious pace horses engaged. She should get a soft time of it out in front and has the potential to hand up if there is a surprise leader. This Denman gelding looks like the best bet of the day.
Bon Voyage appears to be the main danger, but from barrier 12 he will have to be jagged back to last or ridden for luck. With not much exposed pace in this race it could be awfully difficult making up a heap of ground. I can’t see him giving Belter several lengths on straightening and being able to reel him in. Klondike Kenny is capable of winning a race like this. The market may be the best guide after his little freshen up.
Very keen on Belter. Just hoping my favourite backing disability doesn’t flare up.
Selections
2 Belter
5 Klondike Kenny
11 Bon Voyage
Suggested Bet: 100 wins Belter (2).
Race 5 – Geraldton
This is getting beyond a joke at Geraldton. Ryan Hill is off his mount helping the barrier attendants load horses. This reminds me of under 13’s cricket when Joondalup Kinross only had 9 players, so we had to let a couple of our blokes’ field for them. Unfortunately, I reckon my under 13’s cricket side do a better job than those behind the gates at Geraldton. Darren McCauley is about to go postal, could be worth staying tuned just for that.
Keeper’s Son will look to cross and lead Spin On Command here with Wavehill Spur and the Autier ridden (loose term) Wonorg ensuring this race is run at a strong tempo. Spin On Command has opened your $2.90 favourite and labelling this under the odds would be quite the understatement. Midweek he was lucky not to be grabbed late by In Da Hood, and I don’t think that is a form line which will hold much clout in Saturday company.
Everything seems to point to Middle Earth here and I am very happy putting this Blackfriars gelding on top. His trial was excellent before he was unwanted in betting first up, dropped out to last before a very soft victory over the top of them. The fact he was unwanted in betting that day suggests he may have a fair amount of improvement in him, and I suspect he will be the one finishing over the top of them. Dan Staeck goes back on Rogan Scent in what appears to be a stubborn/loyal move by the Kersley camp. I don’t know how well he rides this Rogano mare.
Selections
7 Middle Earth
6 Keeper’s Son
1 Double Digit
Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Middle Earth (7).
Race 6 – Dude
Dudemanbro. How stoned were the Warwick’s when they named this horse? After drawing barrier one and going up a very backable $9, I would be surprised if there is a great deal of sobriety in that household after this race. Lucy has opted to ride for her old man, rather than current favourite Sandalwood, and it is no real surprise. I would not expect the disparity (Dudemanbro $9 v Sandalwood $3.90) in the market to remain as such for much longer. Dudemanbro was first up when running the quickest last 600m over 2200m. Some type of training effort from Justin. He should be fitter for the run and from barrier one should enjoy the trail on likely leader Cappo D’Oro’s back.
Couleur Bizarre should once again get the perfect run from the good draw and will appreciate the services of inform hoop Shaun McGruddy again. Sandalwood and At The Ready may be the two classiest finishers in this, but it might be difficult for either to make the ground required to catch Couleur Bizarre, Cappo D’Oro or Dudemanbro who should all appreciate soft runs on speed.
I’m expecting to see Mattieu Autier to channel his ride in the Ted Van Heemst on Hakuna Matata. This Authorized gelding has one pace and one pace only and is probably one of very few horses suited to the urgings of the French Butcher. I would not be surprised to see him try and lead this by 10 lengths. Whether he can or not is another story.
At $9, very happy being on Dudemanbro each way.
Selections
9 Dudemanbro
3 Couleur Bizarre
1 Cappo D’Oro
Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Dudemanbro (9).
Race 7 - Class v Conditions
It is no secret that the two class horses in this race are Showcase and Private Dancer. The all-in markets have little between the pair at the top of the WA Oaks market and even this early on it would surprise if one or the other was not the victor. This race has however thrown up a curveball with both hotpots drawing next to each other in deep car park. The rail moves to the inside pad here and while I don’t want to predict an on-pace bias, it tends to be more than a 50% chance with our lovely little 297m straight.
Sally’s Realm is the second of the Peters runners and has looked to have come back a stronger filly this preparation. She was good over the unsuitable 1200m first up when edged out by a horse getting up on everybody’s favourite cutaway, before a comfortably victory second up from a sticky draw. The two favourites have opened around the $3 mark, while Sally’s Realm is $13. She doesn’t have the talent of the other two, but in form hoop Chris Parnham hops on from barrier 3 and she should enjoy the run of the race. What will prevail; class or conditions?
Very happy getting involved at the $13 quote.
Selections
5 Sally’s Realm
1 Private Dancer
2 Showcase
Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Sally’s Realm (5).
Race 8 – Bridesmaid & Brittany
My Grace is turning into more of a bridesmaid than Shannon Noll (a reality TV joke which hurts my soul to make, but any chance to bring up Shannon Noll cannot be ignored). I don’t think she was suited by the hard run 1400m which Corporate Larrikin put to them a fortnight ago and despite the presence of Nelson’s Flight, who will ensure this race is run at an even tempo, she will be more suited here.
Sweet Ora was huge in defeating My Grace last time they met, though the 54.5kgs to 58kg is a serious jump for a mare. In saying this, she has carried weight with success in the past. I really do think these are the class animals in the race and while many see this as an open event, I can’t really go past those two.
I should be onto my 14th Guinness by this stage of proceedings and if Baraki Beats, by some form of divine intervention is the victor here, I will let Brittany Taylor take me out on a date. I’m a man of my word.
Selections
6 My Grace
1 Sweet Ora
11 Nelson’s Flight
Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 place My Grace (6).
Comments
=D> =D>
"How stoned were the Warwick's" and " I'll Let Brittany Taylor take me out on a date"
:))thefalcon likes this post.
I’m still recovering from switching off Battle Hero last week.
Then there was Miracle Man; it seems P Knuckey can still ridea masterfull up from race; and just as amazing was the price and Wes being all over it like peanut butter on my sandwich.
Well as for tomorrow the Irish day.
Race 1/ How To Fly could be back too far or boxed in.
So I am going for Mizlecki after a really interesting trial win (and champ trainer too). I cannot leave out Wee Cent.
It’s first win was from behind with a great sectional.
Race 2/ Pinzu is v underrated. He’s been unlucky too many times and look at his prize money .
He has a really great jockey on board with fresh form first up.
I hope they will go really fast and then he might just catch them.
Race 3/ I started off looking at the S Miller one as the go as Agent Pippa’s win looked slow .
But after comparing the trials I have switched.
Race 4/only 2 here; mainly Megafactory after the great run behind the Wu horse in fast time; should go one better at good price. But have to put in the Testa Rossa Bon Voyage too.
Race 5/ Top 4 in the betting plus Keepers Son
Race 6/ one enormous raffle here; at least 9 chances.
Race 7/ I love Private Dancer; shes the go for me. Showcasing and Sally’s are in too.
Race 8/ Yes I will tumble in again with My Grace.
But will Nelson’s do a Veuce de Viga/Wrinkly/My Greek Boy thing again. Has this been done at Belmont or is it an Ascot special?
How about the Wu horse, 33 to 1!
Well good luck to all in the 4 legged lottery.
Any ideas for an Irish named horse(s) for tomorrow?
Or maybe something green?
How are things in Glocca Morra?
I hear a bird.
A Glocca Morra bird.
It may well be he's bringing me a cheer'n word.
(see Song from Finian's Rainbow)
lowza24 likes this post.
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But Belter has had so any chances.
Kieran McDonagh must be Irish with Spin on Command. Last sectional on recent win didn't look too hot but the horse and trainer are v consistent (jockey not bad either!).
Market movers in Sydney are Mizlecki into 4.2 here and Wee Cent out to 7.5.
Agent Pippa 2.0 here and the Lady 2.3.
Belter 3.1 Bon voyage 4.8 and Megafactory in to 7.0
Oh and has anyone Svengali's phone number so I can have an idea what Mr Motown and Prize Catch will do this week?
Overall time for Spin On Command for its last run over 1800m was the 4th fastest 1800m run at Ascot this season,behind Kingston Town and 2 Listed races and she drops 4kg on last run
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Agent Pippa
Klondike Kenny
Showcase
An early roughie in Pinzu to kick off the day, to be sure, to be sure.
RIO, H-BOMBER likes this post.
Just watched the replay of their last run PD wasn't punished in the run to the line i think with even luck she has the Peter's filly covered.
Gee, I've watched that replay a few times and I reckon Showcase was a certainty beat... there ya go....
Intersting that C Parnham has piloted both to their last victory and he's on Sally's Realm. I think the 7 is a good smokey in that race too.
Might see you there if I do :-bd
Then again, being a Plumber you might not want a Sparky around taking all the glory B-) ;))
jum likes this post.
Should be another big day I reckon.
@ $9.00 (Win)
Ascot R2
2. Pinzu
@ $3.90 (Place)
Ascot R3
2. Cup Night
@ $23.00 (Win)
Ascot R4
5. Klondike Kenny
@ $7.00 (Win)
Ascot R5
Win or Place
13. Spin On Command
@ $2.70 (Win)
Ascot R7
Win or Place
14. Black Attack
@ $31.00 (Place)
Ascot R8
6. My Grace
@ $4.50 (Win)
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