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Ascot Preview, 8th Dec
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
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Ascot R1. Westspeed Handicap Preview - Matt Rigby
Im quite bullish about Karratha Crossing here. Her form last campaign was behind very good horses where she did the work outside the leader. The Rising has certainly stood up to be one of our best 2yo's and now 3yo's. If Tacash decides to kick up, War Prince may find himself doing some work to get to the front or even outside the leader. No doubt he will improve on the first up run and was also behind The Rising. Dueton ran on well behind the Miller pair last week in a race that wasn't run to suit the back markers. A great effort, but the 59kg and back up is the worry. Not keen on Karaka Diamond.
4. KARRATHA CROSSING - 7. WAR PRINCE - 1. DUETON
Im quite bullish about Karratha Crossing here. Her form last campaign was behind very good horses where she did the work outside the leader. The Rising has certainly stood up to be one of our best 2yo's and now 3yo's. If Tacash decides to kick up, War Prince may find himself doing some work to get to the front or even outside the leader. No doubt he will improve on the first up run and was also behind The Rising. Dueton ran on well behind the Miller pair last week in a race that wasn't run to suit the back markers. A great effort, but the 59kg and back up is the worry. Not keen on Karaka Diamond.
4. KARRATHA CROSSING - 7. WAR PRINCE - 1. DUETON
Comments
Im tipping with no confidence here. Blacksmith will probably get the lead and represents the value in this race, back to the 54kg and a distance that suits. I have never been an Excelorada fan but he always seems to draw a marble and get a good run. That will happen again here and he is the one to beat. Metal Talk returns after a bleeding attack and they say their best run is their first up run. If they dont scamper, he can over race and destroy his chances, but on his day he's pretty smart. Beach Express had all the favours last time out and Adam is really producing them well first up. Im banking on more improvement from some of the others. Highly Toxic not impossible here either but gives Beach Express, Blacksmith and Metal Talk substantial weight advantage.
4. BLACKSMITH - 5. EXCELORADA - 7. METAL TALK
Goose will get the front easily here but in the small field, I doubt White will want to break them open and turn it into a staying test. Global Flirt will have the edge on all of them fitness wise. He won last week under his own steam with barely more than a couple of waves of the whip from the kid. Moonlight Bay is a little suspect in a truly run staying event, but I dont think this will be one. That brings her right into it again with her superior sprint. Malaika wont be suited at all if the sprint from the 800m. If you knew they would run along, she's one of the better stayers in the event. Battle Emblem is the roughie in this. He's very well accomplished, can stay and drops back from Group company for this.
5. GLOBAL FLIRT - 2. MOONLIGHT BAY - 1. BATTLE EMBLEM
The cat goes amongst the pigeons here with Grand Platz joining the Warwick yard. We know he can improve horses that have shown ability in the past and this one fits the bill. Ill be tipping against him however in the form of Teen Idol. Whiting has jumped off a couple to ride this, including impressive midweek winner Ready Raider. The stable must be confident going in here first up without a trial. The pace will be created by Torridale and Darci Time. Whistledownthewind was super impressive at Pinjarra first up, but those races tend to flatter certain horses. She did run time however. Ready Raider and Grand Platz will also get good runs. A great race.
8. TEEN IDOL - 7. WHISTLEDOWNTHEWIND - 4. GRAND PLATZ
Power Princess is the stand out on ability, but she is yet to win at the 1400m and the only time she was placed, she was beaten by Blacksmith, who is less of a 1400m horse than she is. Having said that, shes on fire this time in, so if she's ever going to win at 7 furlongs, it might be here. I'll tip Luke's Luck, who will appreciate the drop back to 1400m. I think he got gassed chasing that blistering speed in the Guineas and peaked at the end of his run. Before that, he ran on stoutly behind Luckygray in similar company to this. Niblick, Westriver Kevydon and Bites the Dust all have claims, the latter I'd be recommending a bet if they were paying three places. She was unlucky in the Jungle Mist, but this is a step up in class.
7. LUKE'S LUCK - 5. POWER PRINCESS - 6. BITES THE DUST
While I think she'll win, having been on her at her last two runs at huge odds, I cant tip her at $2.50 in this! Bippo No Bungus has run two excellent races in the Champion Fillies and then the Guineas. She was beaten by two very smart performers in both. The query with the Aquanita however is where will the pace come from? Rebelson has led and won but was hardly impressive the day it led and is probably better suited sitting. Likewise Coventry to Rio failed when leading in a woefully slowly run race last time out. Western Blaze won in that same race and in the circumstances was a good win. I think he has a lot of upside and is a definite chance to upset here. Raising Dubai the smokey but less inclined to have a bet now that the bar shoes go on.
6. BIPPO NO BUNGUS - 3. WESTERN BLAZE - 5. THE DANEHILL ROSE
Its a very even race where you could tip any one of 5 or 6 runners. Ill speculate on Rantorini, who had no luck in the Jungle Mist where Staeck lost his iron right near the start. She did a good job to finish where she did. Upon this Rock was the first gathered up in the same race, but kept giving all the way up the straight, as Gai's horses often do. With the Pontiff on board and drawn well, she'll be up the front again. Miss Vinnoire all but knocked off Peggie's Dream and likewise, with Boss aboard, she gains a length or so on her last run. Of the others Mabel Grace is not hopeless and Comtesse La Gran will have some takers, but she'll need a load of luck from near last in this field.
11. RANTORINI - 2. UPON THIS ROCK - 9. MISS VINNOIRE
There were a number of huge runs in the Railway, namely Wall Street, Rosie Rocket and even Luckygray and Ranger. While Playing God appeared to have every chance, you know that he can come forward substantially on that run. Luckygray sprinted from near last and wide and was beaten by a horse that had every possible hope in the run. His failure last year may have been due to training off, moreso that failing at the 1800m. Rosie will be my tip. She sat wide and kept ploughing away at the end of the Railway. She wasn't entitled to finish in the placings. Of the outsiders, I like Chester Road and Ranger at double figures. I dont hold much hope for Fuddle Dee Duddle or Rebelson (should he get a run). Once again, the pace is dubious here, which brings Rosie Rocket and Playing God right into contention.
14. ROSIE ROCKET - 2. LUCKYGRAY - 3. PLAYING GOD
Ive settled on Checkpoint in the last although he may tighten a little too much in the market. Once again he draws the plumb marble and will get a great run. Full Steam Ahead has skipped the trials and showed he had a lot of ability in the Autumn. Harvey will hook him to the outside and he will charge late. The pace will most likely come from Ten Aces, Akhedasset and Iseethingsyoudon't. The latter disappointed when beaten by 100/1 shot The Regulator, who since came out and went terrible. However, he's back to the 1200m here after the stable attempted to stretch him to 1500m. Sir Hallowell has a tendency to miss the start and doing that from 1 could be futile with the girl on top.
3. CHECKPOINT - 8. FULL STEAM AHEAD - 9. ISEETHINGSYOUDON'T
so war prince is slow out and can still get an easy lead over 1000m. =))
are they so scared of miller and carbery that they even wait for them to get their desired position in running!
and i thought the game was racing......how wrong am i?
Perhaps he could give a seminar on how to get more than 3 starts in a campaign and how to get a thoroughbred to race more than once a fortnight.
Might fix the small fields problem.
yep fix it up alright just like they have fixed up the trots...
good horse that one
Bippo No Bungus couldn't even beat Steel Business home. Talk about losing a leg.