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Question y does betfair get it so right alot of the time

West Australian Racing
[DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
edited April 2013 West Australian Racing
Just a question to people with more idea then me on this subject and i am not saying its the be all and end all but i have seen so many horses win when the money goes on that u thought on last runs were on down hill slide or not fit enough in yard ect but betfair more then any other place tends to get these right more then wrong thoughts anyone.As to y the market is so right alot of the time.Yesterday in the last in brisbane we had a horse first up no trial on a h9 track and they wanted to back horse and it got the cash as a form person it would have been hard to have yet betfair loved the horse.
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Comments

  • thefalconthefalcon    20,488 posts
    maybe they have a crystal ball
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  • Piston_BrokePiston_Broke    2,047 posts
    it's not Betfair that get it right Mailman, its the people using Betfair, it takes both, supply and demand
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  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    Mailman Betfair is a fantastic tool for anyone serious about having a punt.

    Anyone can do the form but horses aren`t machines and to get a horse to the track, a lot of different people are involved.

    There are many variables involved in finding a winner and some people get information that gives them an advantage to back or lay a horse depending on what they know.

    They won`t always be right and there are many different opinions but i would prefer to back a horse that is 2 points below its tote price on Betfair than a tote favourite that is $2 but $4 is readily available on Betfair.

    If you`re patient and you regularly analyze Betfair markets you can bet profitably without even doing form.

    Whether Betfair is right or wrong is debatable but if you punt and you don`t use it, you`re not maximizing your chances of backing a winner.
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  • DarkTargetDarkTarget    226 posts
    I can tell you for sure and certain, Betfair is right, and every other tote / bookmaker is wrong, simple as that.
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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    "a lot" is 2 words :-bd

    rick likes this post.

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  • RadmanRadman    1,992 posts
    Mailmans spell-check died of exhaustion months ago.

    Carlosa likes this post.

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Only stirring the pot 8-}
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  • rickrick    487 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    "a lot" is 2 words :-bd

    y is spelt "why"
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  • raconteurraconteur    610 posts
    DarkTarget said:

    I can tell you for sure and certain, Betfair is right, and every other tote / bookmaker is wrong, simple as that.

    BETFAIR is simply the facilitator for punters' bets - BACK or LAY - supply and demand dictating amounts and subsequently value.
    - to say what you said DT is stupid - it is a bit like saying "Punters are right"
    as an example - On saturday there will be lay money on Black Caviar to be beaten - ie the opposite of $1.10 so effectively $10.00 -
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,488 posts
    many would invest a ton to make a grand rather than a ton to make a tenner.
    stranger things happen in racing...
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  • DarkTargetDarkTarget    226 posts
    Rac - to say what i said for someone who doesn't understand how each market works might seem stupid. Unless the tote / bookmaker odds are the same as Betfair in a particular race, they are wrong, and Betfair's are right (or as right as you can get for an uncertain event like horse racing).
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  • raconteurraconteur    610 posts
    Too simplistic to say that DT - each market is simply correct for the level of specific investment at that time - Betfair (and all exchanges) have 'deposited' funds which effectively give a "guide" to what punters are prepared to risk or back. Whether that is taken up might then truly determine that side of the market. But to say BETFAIR is right and the Totes etc wrong - is silly - IMO
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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    Raconteur i agree more with what darktarget is saying in over 10 years of betting on perth racing saturday only the top 4 in market at jump time have won about 75 percent of races.That alone is staggering the fact of knowing that tells u alot about the game today.Its not 1980 any more yes their is value still but to bet outside that top 4 on a saturday its in my view a big waste of time for the most part.Betfair with its even less percentage trims that even more thats working on the 115 that bookies put out for saturdays.Its a fact that the market is very correct most of the time.
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  • DarkTargetDarkTarget    226 posts
    Rac - we can each have our own opinion.

    I've done the analysis to see what value the tote odds add to the Betfair market in terms of precitability, and its ZERO.
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  • RodentRodent    7,470 posts
    edited April 2013
    raconteur said:


    as an example - On saturday there will be lay money on Black Caviar to be beaten - ie the opposite of $1.10 so effectively $10.00 -


    That is incorrect. The opposite of $1.10 is $11.00
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