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Ascot 14/03 Preview & Selections
West Australian Racing
Chris
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Race 1 — DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1800m)
The stayers kick us off, and it looks like a tactical battle between the Williams and Pearce camps. ASIF (NZ) is the one that maps perfectly here. He is a model of consistency and rarely misses the frame. He showed great grit when winning over 1600m two starts back and stayed on strongly for second last time out. Rising to 1800m shouldn't be an issue for this Per Incanto gelding. The danger is obviously ROYAL TORONADO, who gets the "Pike Tax" in the market but has the techform rating to back it up. He was spectacular finishing off from the back over 1200m recently and will appreciate the step up in trip.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — ASIF (NZ) @ $3.40 (Live)
Danger: ROYAL TORONADO — Big effort to finish third last start; the main threat.
| Selection | Comment |
| ASIF (NZ) | On-pace runner who is deep into his fitness peak. |
| ROYAL TORONADO | Will be flying late, but might leave too much to do. |
Assessed Market: Royal Toronado $2.60, Asif $3.60, Soldanelle $5.50, Famous Dain $10.00, Trio $21.00, Others $15+.
Race 2 — GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1000m)
A short-course scamper where weight claims are everything. CASTLE ROAD looks exceptionally well-placed here. He’s carrying 58.5kg but Cassey Martinan’s 3kg claim brings him down to a very competitive 55.5kg. He’s a natural leader who was only reeled in late for third last start. Back to 1000m, he can break their hearts. TYCOON HARRY is the class horse but has to lug 58.5kg even after the claim. He’s a 1000m specialist, so don’t expect him to be far away.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — CASTLE ROAD @ $4.00 (Live)
Danger: TYCOON HARRY — Quartered his heel recently but if fit, he’s the benchmark.
| Selection | Comment |
| CASTLE ROAD | Lightning speed and significantly better off at the weights today. |
| TYCOON HARRY | Loves the distance and has the highest techform rating. |
Assessed Market: Tycoon Harry $3.80, Castle Road $4.10, Rolling Ruler $4.80, Wembanyama $8.00, Pinger $9.00, Others $12+.
Race 3 — MC POLYTRACK HANDICAP (1200m)
This is a No Metro Wins race which usually favors those with a bit of "country grit" coming back to town. LUCKY I AM is a standout based on her lifetime strike rate. She’s placed in 14 of 19 starts—a genuine "banker" for the multiples. She was huge storming home for second at Belmont last time and looks primed for this. SO SI GOD is the wildcard; unbeaten in trial/start scenarios and looks a progressive type for the Casey stable.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — LUCKY I AM @ $5.00 (Live)
Danger: SO SI GOD — Lightly raced and Chris Parnham sticks. Big watch.
Roughie (Bomb): MILITARY POWER ($26.00) — If he settles, he has the engine to surprise.
| Selection | Comment |
| LUCKY I AM | Extremely consistent and gets a 2kg claim to help. |
| SO SI GOD | Followed a win with a nice second; maps well from gate 2. |
Assessed Market: Lucky I Am $4.50, So Si God $4.80, Earth God $6.00, Urquharts Bluff $7.00, Others $10+.
Race 4 — NATASHA STAKES (2200m)
This is the "Pike Show." WONDERFULLY MADE was dominant in the 1000 Guineas and looked like she could have gone around another lap. She is clearly the best filly in this field and the 2200m should be her playground. We won’t be getting rich at the current price, but she’s the anchor for all bets. MASMELO tried hard to catch her last time and will likely be the one chasing her home again.
Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) — WONDERFULLY MADE @ $1.55 (Live)
Danger: MASMELO — Solid second in the Guineas and the only one likely to stay with the top pick.
| Selection | Comment |
| WONDERFULLY MADE | The class filly of the meeting. Should win if she stays upright. |
| MASMELO | Honest stayer who will benefit if it becomes a test of stamina. |
Assessed Market: Wonderfully Made $1.60, Masmelo $5.00, Admire Astra $9.00, Others $15+.
Race 5 — CITY OF BELMONT PLATE (1100m)
The two-year-olds are a bit of a lottery, but FIREARM has the benefit of race experience and the Wizard (Pike) in the saddle. He worked home well for third last start and should find this 1100m trip right up his alley. HAPPY DANCE won a trial very impressively and the Parnham stable is hitting its straps with the babies.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — FIREARM @ $2.60 (Live)
Danger: HAPPY DANCE — Debutant with high expectations based on trial form.
| Selection | Comment |
| FIREARM | Top performance to run on well last start; fitness edge. |
| HAPPY DANCE | Blue-blooded sire and a soft trial win suggests ability. |
Assessed Market: Firearm $2.80, Happy Dance $4.20, London Rose $8.00, Crypto Master $11.00, Others $15+.
Race 6 — TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HCP (1600m)
SPANK APPEAL is the one here. He is third-up today, which is traditionally the peak performance run for this stable. His effort over 1400m last time was encouraging, and the Maschino progeny love the mile at Ascot. LATER ALLIGATOR is the obvious danger, having gone within a whisker of winning at Pinjarra. He’ll be prominent throughout.
Recommended Bet: Bet (1 Unit) — SPANK APPEAL @ $5.00 (Live)
Danger: LATER ALLIGATOR — On-pace runner who is knocking on the door.
| Selection | Comment |
| SPANK APPEAL | Ready to peak at his favorite track/distance. |
| LATER ALLIGATOR | Enormous effort last start; will take some catching. |
Assessed Market: Later Alligator $4.00, The Spruiker $4.50, Spank Appeal $5.50, Success Play $9.00, Others $12+.
Comments
Race 7 — PETERS INVESTMENTS HANDICAP (1800m)
This is a deep race, but I’ve found a "Bomb" at massive odds. THE JESTER'S SON is being ignored by the market despite a career strike rate that suggests he’s a much better horse than $17.00. He was only beaten 0.1L in the Esperance Cup and gets a 3kg claim here. He can roll forward and give them something to think about. WESTERN LADY is the horse everyone wants to be on after her unlucky second at Bunbury, but she’s very short in a full field.
Recommended Bet: Bomb (0.5 Units) — THE JESTER'S SON @ $17.00 (Live)
Danger: WESTERN LADY — Ridden just off the pace and looks the class factor if she gets luck.
Assessed Market: Western Lady $2.20, Jackpot Bingo $7.00, Late Arrival $9.00, The Jester's Son $10.00, Others $15+.
Race 8 — GUINNESS HANDICAP (1200m)
With the scratchings of Sky Duke and Immortal Bliss, this race has opened right up. TIMELESS GEM is the play. He’s a winner over this track and distance and has been building towards a win this prep. He’ll sit just behind the speed and has a lethal turn of foot. HORCRUX is the danger for the Miller/Pike combo; he was run down late last time but will be rock hard fit.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — TIMELESS GEM @ $6.00 (Live)
Danger: HORCRUX — Will likely lead and give a massive sight with Pike steering.
Assessed Market: Horcrux $2.90, King Adviso $5.50, Timeless Gem $6.50, Rissoles $7.50, Others $10+.
Race 9 — SCHWEPPES J.C. ROBERTS STAKES (1800m)
A cracking Listed race for the 3YO boys. SENTIMENTAL LEGEND looks like a future star. He made a mockery of them at Belmont, winning by nearly 3 lengths without being touched. Pike on from a wide-ish gate means he’ll likely look for a trail and unleash late. THE CRIMSON PIRATE is the direct rival, coming off two dominant wins. He is the techform leader and won’t go down without a fight.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — SENTIMENTAL LEGEND @ $3.40 (Live)
Danger: THE CRIMSON PIRATE — Surged away for a strong win in the L Piper; hard to fault.
Assessed Market: The Crimson Pirate $3.50, Sentimental Legend $3.60, Aberdeen Flyer $5.00, Dominatus $8.00, Others $12+.
Race 10 — CROSER SPARKLING HANDICAP (1400m)
We finish the day with a high-quality handicap. DESERT WAVES is a serious horse on the rise. He’s won two on the trot in dominant fashion and seems to have found another gear this campaign. He sits on-speed and makes his own luck. SAFEDEEL is another one with a 50% lifetime placing record that maps well. He was very professional winning at Bunbury and will be there when the whips are cracking.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — DESERT WAVES @ $4.60 (Live)
Danger: SAFEDEEL — Held off rivals for a soft win last time; maps for a cozy run.
Assessed Market: Desert Waves $4.50, Yougivemechills $6.00, Safedeel $6.50, King Hit $9.00, Azena $10.00, Others $15+.
Summary of Best Bets
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