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Belmont Preview, 16th Jul 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Belmont Bonanza Plate - Scott Embry
Another wet and wintery day expected on Saturday which hopefully won't mean another abandoned race meet because I think this is a very good card of highly competitive racing. As usual we open with the juveniles and I think we can safely narrow this down to the 2 fancies both returning to the track. The Celt now in the stables of Vaughn Sigley and I Am Boudica from the Brockman yard. Both return to racing first-up without a trial having contested top class 2 year old events in their previous preparation. The Celt lead from start to finish on debut to win by 2.3 lengths and then was far from disgraced behind The River in the Listed 2 Year Old Magic Millions. I Am Boudica was thrown into the deep end on debut when contesting the Group 3 Gimcrack stakes won by boom filly Whispering Brook. I Am Boudica was no better than three wide the entire trip and fought on gamely. They look the obvious and I will happily take a short but sweet quinella. Invincible Mode should get a soft run behind them for third.
1. THE CELT - 7. CARNELIAN - 2. INVINCIBLE MODE
Another wet and wintery day expected on Saturday which hopefully won't mean another abandoned race meet because I think this is a very good card of highly competitive racing. As usual we open with the juveniles and I think we can safely narrow this down to the 2 fancies both returning to the track. The Celt now in the stables of Vaughn Sigley and I Am Boudica from the Brockman yard. Both return to racing first-up without a trial having contested top class 2 year old events in their previous preparation. The Celt lead from start to finish on debut to win by 2.3 lengths and then was far from disgraced behind The River in the Listed 2 Year Old Magic Millions. I Am Boudica was thrown into the deep end on debut when contesting the Group 3 Gimcrack stakes won by boom filly Whispering Brook. I Am Boudica was no better than three wide the entire trip and fought on gamely. They look the obvious and I will happily take a short but sweet quinella. Invincible Mode should get a soft run behind them for third.
1. THE CELT - 7. CARNELIAN - 2. INVINCIBLE MODE
Comments
Three Votes is blessed with incredible speed and it was on display in his electric trial victory running rivals ragged in a blistering time. Easily the fastest recorded trial of the day and You're A Rum'in who finished 3.5 lengths back in the field stood out as one of the better bets on the card on Wednesday as a result. Noske should have no trouble holding the lead from barrier 1 and will be playing 'catch me if you can' aboard the fleet footed son of Fastnet Rock. Last start flop when drifting from $1.60 out to even money was on a Soft5 track and that is the major concern here. He obviously flys on a dry track but can he bring that form to rain affected ground? At the $2.45 quote I am willing to look around. War In Paris could not have been any more impressive first-up down the Pinjarra straight when romping home by 3.3. He can test the favourite. War Jeune was super last start but rises 2kg on that effort and is drawn awkwardly in barrier 8. Bombs Away and Sovereign Hall should get economical runs behind the speed. No love for Recoiled because I think he will end up three deep throughout but is worth following going forwards.
9. WAR IN PARIS - 5. THREE VOTES - 1. BOMBS AWAY
I think Gigante ticks every box and stands out as the best bet on the card. Drawn beautifully in barrier 3, carrying 56kg coming from the Vega Magic form lines which have established themselves as one of the strongest in the state at the minute. Well commissioned last start to test boom three year old Vega Magic he wasn't able to get the job done but ran a good enough race to suggest that he will be very hard to beat here. Has never missed the money at Belmont Park over 1200m from 8 starts and won by 1.3 lengths on a soft6 track back in May. I bled from every orifice on Wednesday when backing Beaucount so here's hoping it comes back through Gigante. Flytego is not a wet-tracker and not a Belmont runner but I think his recent efforts have been handy. Could be one at big odds to bob up. Flying Time goes well in the wet and is probably the logical danger to the favourite. Randy Tan doesn't have to do a lot from barrier 1 and he could figure dropping back to 72+ grade. Back to a Walk, The Price, Silver Speck and The Dankster have been below their best for long periods of time. Grey Enigma from barrier 10, not for me.
2. GIGANTE - 1. FLYTEGO - 3. FLYING TIME
SUGGESTED BET - 2. GIGANTE $100
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Mouthwatering clash between a number of in-form three year olds. Trade Fair filly Ellora May is gunning for 4 wins onthe bounce while geldings Astronomite and My Greek Boy are shooting for winning hat-tricks. The three gallopers are all drawn alongside each other in the middle of the field which should lend itself to an intriguing battle of tactics. My Greek Boy is the most awkwardly drawn of the trio and rises 2kg on his last start victory when gifted a run along the rails to set out after the leader and didn't have to go around a single horse, however, the victory was in sharp time and when he let down he unleshed a powerful turn of foot which Steve Wolfe likened to a young Mr Utopia. I think he is a pretty special type and am happy to stick with him. Ellora May definitely wont get things her own way with Cone Bay likely to take up the running sporting blinkers. Forced to sit outside the lead she is a sitting duck but has been winning in style. Astonomite definitely faces his toughest task to date and will need to be good to win. Beyond those three Cone Bay and Dusha Zachistiki look the best of the rest.
4. MY GREEK BOY - 7. ELLORA MAY - 5. ASTRONOMITE
SUGGESTED BET - 4. MY GREEK BOY $50 x $50
I think George 'N' Ernie and Forseen can both turn the tables on Cubitt And Cundy in the opening leg of the quaddie. I am taking a bit of a stance against Cubitt And Cundy who had the run of the race first-up when winning, rises 2.5kg on that run meaning he will conceed 4kg to Forseen and 2kg to George 'N' Ernie. Coupled with the bitter barrier blow of 13 I think he will find this a deal tougher. George 'N' Ernie is a consistent type however, has only won 1 race from 16 career starts which makes him a risky investment. JJ Brown replaces the injured Brad Parnham and it would be no surprise to see him run another minor placing without gracing the winners' enclosure. Mulga drops a massive 4.5kg on his first-up run behind Ellora May and while he will get back is more than capable of charging home over the top. War Ksar's last start win at Pinjarra has made for a handy form reference with a number of horses who finished behind him earning cheques at their following start. Forseen should get a soft lead and while tested at 1650 will appreciate the sting out of the ground.
8. MULGA - 5. WAR KSAR - 13. GEORGE 'N' ERNIE
This is a pretty open leg of the quaddie and one where I think I will play two horses both on an eachway basis. Raising Dubai drawn barrier 1 and Fo' Shizzle drawn barrier 2 should both get very soft runs in transit and be there to fight out the finish. Hopefully for the sake of my wallet one of them can get the W and put some value into the quaddie. Raising Dubai drops back from 78+ grade when finding the likes of Military Ruler, Properantes and Muskets At Dawn a bit sharp. With Shalo, Thunderclap Newman and Infathuated all capable of rolling in front Randy Tan should be able to sneak up along the rails and into contention. Fo' Shizzle was super first-up behind Vega Magic. Beaten 7 lengths may look pretty average on paper but for a mare who needs a mile I thought it was a super effort. Rain will only help her cause and carrying only 52kg gets a good chance to earn some cash early in her preparation. Bonny Zara is in career best form but must conceed 2kg to Infathuated, Tarquinn Shadow and Moonsearch.
2. RAISING DUBAI - 11. FO' SHIZZLE - 6. BONNY ZARA
Universal Ruler's new flag bearing filly Military Reign deserves Black Type against her name and gets a genuine chance to achieve that here. Carrying a luxurious 54.5kg from barrier 1 with the states premier hoop aboard she ticks all the boxes and should go very close to an all the way win. Her main rival on paper looks to be Rock Magic, last years first-up winner of the event who has no doubt been targetted at this race for a long period. I think they will be the two to fight out the finish and with a 4.5kg weight advantage and superior barrier I think Military Reign is the one to beat. Have her marked on top from Rock Magic, in for third I've thrown Dominating who returns to the track after an absence of 700 days. Trials have been sound and his wet track record reads 5 starts for 4 wins and has a 50% strike rate at the short course. Worth inclusion into the novelties. Zuccheros is flying at the minute but has to content with the outside barrier. Loves the rain so if the heavens open then his chances double. Rebel King doesn't go a yard in the wet so unfortunately for young Jordy Turner I doubt he will get this Listed ride.
8. MILITARY REIGN - 1. ROCK MAGIC - 3. DOMINATING
SUGGESTED BET - 8. MILITARY REIGN $100
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3. THE FLIRT - 8. PRESENT ARMS (NZ) - 1. GALAXY PRINCE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. THE FLIRT
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