DarkTarget
About
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- DarkTarget
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- Turf Talker
- Posts
- 226
Comments
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Good to see you are still kicking!
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Right. Pretty sure i know who you are (were). You didn't mind a long post on the forum if i am correct?
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Actually, I had a look over it and there was one more variable than i thought their would be (or is when i do it my way) so have put it aside for the moment. Shouldnt you only need old_race and new_race? Isnt the variable days the by product of thos…
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Hmmm now you have me thinking of who you are bookie.... From what i understand, Z has been on and off for a bit but is well and truly still around. I'm not saying Sean doesn't have an impact, but he's not controlling the markets around Australia.
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Bookie The first name you mentioned absolutely controls the prices. Bartholomew would have almost zero impact on the shape of the market.
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Hope Powell bought his binoculars.... Needs to start somewhere but he's surely a mile out of his depth here.
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I managed to sneak a quick read of that last paragraph... sounds like Mr B was not the only person to get what he needed to off..... Having said that, the person in question has no use for it now anyway, does he!
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The one thing i am intrigued about, is why it was documented so clearly?!?!? Almost like a hand out for other people to learn... which is the last thing they would want?
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I was about to say I keep hearing Carey telling me he's a generous sould but im yet to see any evidence =))
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Cheers!
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Where is your avatar Carey :-\"
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Ah right, never knew that.... all makes sense now!
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I've got an idea who it was lifted from, his name has been mentioned here a few times by myself and is someone you did work for once upon a time? Vicki W im not so sure of :)]
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I know exactly WHAT it is because I do what its trying to do, but probably in a different way to Carey, but I cant read it :-?
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I cant read it properly, even if i zoom in :-((
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Interesting avatar Carey, never noticed it before... :-B
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Rac - we can each have our own opinion. I've done the analysis to see what value the tote odds add to the Betfair market in terms of precitability, and its ZERO.
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Rac - to say what i said for someone who doesn't understand how each market works might seem stupid. Unless the tote / bookmaker odds are the same as Betfair in a particular race, they are wrong, and Betfair's are right (or as right as you can get f…
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I can tell you for sure and certain, Betfair is right, and every other tote / bookmaker is wrong, simple as that.
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I dont have an issue with that Falcon, but I have an issue with people disclosing the identity of other purely to spite or perhaps make their life difficult.
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If people are wanting to be referred to by their real names, then they can sign up using it like you have Damien. To have that option taken away by morons is the issue at hand here.
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Yes past nfp's are a great starting point but as you say not as good as time ratings (if they are accurate). There is no correlation between the 2 so can both be used in your model, but if you are using public odds, past nfp's are useless because th…
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Thanks Carey - i just actually looked at the last code properly and realised it normalised the finish, not weighted the past finish... so the code above is perfect =D>
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Completely agree Rodent. Its like anything in life, to succeed you need to play to your strengths (maths, form study, video watching etc....) whatever they may be. You better give me some more of the good stuff then Carey if the end is nigh or the…
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Very interesting algorithm Carey.... I have copied it (so if you have a moment of weakness feel free to delete your post), thank you and will test it to see what i come up with.
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Yes. most variables are recency weighted... the smarties most likely can weight them more accurately than i can, but i run a regression equation on say last, 2nd last, 3rd last, nth last finishing position etc... and get the coefficients to determin…
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lol yes we are on the same page then!I thought from what you were saying you WERE giving them a weight :)>-
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Hmmmm....... Do you use a stats package though to come up with the coefficients? When i say how much weight do you give the publics odds i mean how high is the coefficient, that really should determine what "weight" to give the logodds in your mod…
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How are you determining what weight to give the past log odds though? I do agree though, it doesn't have to be added in to make money though, but even the best (AW's partner) was no good until he added the log of the publics odds to his model.
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In our small pools with uneven playing fields it makes it pretty tricky. But i would like to see a model that adding the log of the public's odds doesn't add any predictability...