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Ascot Preview, 31st Dec 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Amelia Park Handicap - Scott Embry
I was far from a believer that Mosseratti was a genuine stayer but the last two runs have definitely swayed me and this looks at his mercy. Opened up $3 in a lot of corporate markets but expect that to be closer to in the red by jump. He is drawn to get a beautiful soft run throughout and then has undoubtably the best turn of foot of any of these stayers. I'll put a suggested bet of $100 wins Mosseratti but obviously it must now be subject to a disclaimer such is the world we live in. Disclaimer: Suggested bets are purely theoretical and are not meant to sway simple minds into blindly following them
1. MOSSERATTI - 2. PRESELECTION - 3. QUITE REGAL
SUGGESTED BET - 1. MOSSERATTI $100
I was far from a believer that Mosseratti was a genuine stayer but the last two runs have definitely swayed me and this looks at his mercy. Opened up $3 in a lot of corporate markets but expect that to be closer to in the red by jump. He is drawn to get a beautiful soft run throughout and then has undoubtably the best turn of foot of any of these stayers. I'll put a suggested bet of $100 wins Mosseratti but obviously it must now be subject to a disclaimer such is the world we live in. Disclaimer: Suggested bets are purely theoretical and are not meant to sway simple minds into blindly following them
1. MOSSERATTI - 2. PRESELECTION - 3. QUITE REGAL
SUGGESTED BET - 1. MOSSERATTI $100
Comments
Run Liam Run was an eye catching effort first up from a spell. Regular rider Lisa Staples returns to the saddle and if the great southern gun can get racing room from barrier 1 over the concluding stages can definitely notch a career first metro win. Dendee drops back sharply in distance from a mile to 1200m and will be rattling home late. Was backed as if unbeatable first-up on Winterbottom Stakes day and duly saluted. If the money comes for her then no doubt many will be jumping aboard. Dezzie's Dream resumes fresh and will be looking to extend her impecable first-up record to 4 wins from 5 attempts. Trial was very soft and with Pike aboard there will be a lot of punters Australia wide looking to uphold one of the most Aussie hashtags of all time #backpikedrinkwhatyoulike
2. RUN LIAM RUN - 3. DENDEE - 5. DEZZIES DREAM (NZ)
Carocapo was spruiked by every man and his dog on debut and after opening up an amazingly attractive eachway price of $9 he was crunched into $4.60 before returning to an eachway quote of $5.50 by the time they jumped. Pulling himself to the front Jason Brown engaged in a wrestling match with the Husson gelding over the first 400m before he settled into his stride and held off all challengers. This is tougher, but not a whole lot tougher, so with racing experience and a track that is predicted to suit leaders I'm more than happy to continue with Carocapo. Gatting has been a revelation this preparation and DMac has made it very clear he holds a pretty high opinion of the well named Hard Spun - Stubborn gelding. W.Pike back into the saddle, he could position up outside Carocapo or sit perfectly just in behind him. Swedish Memories fresh for the inform combination of Mitchell-Miller as well as Cosmic Ballet will fill the minor ends of my trifectas and first 4s.
6. CAROCAPO - 2. GATTING - 1. SWEDISH MEMORIES
Cosmic Storm went into this race 12 months ago as a raging $2 favourite and could not get near Ideal Image, going down by almost 5 lengths. This time round most again expect Cosmic Storm to be far too strong for the rest of the fillies and mares. She will need an ounce of luck from barrier 1 but if she could position behind likely leader Bedamijo then she will get a lovely cart into the home straight. Ideal Image was afforded no luck whatsoever in the Starstruck and appeals on an eachway basis to make it 2 from 2 in the La Trice Classic. I tend to think that Shaun O'Donnell has pulled the wrong reign abandoning veteran mare Bedamijo. Ridden on speed I think the old girl will give a very good sight. Last time she was over this trip was the Ascot Gold Cup where she almost stole the show when only just run down by Tonto, beating a talented galloper like Chocolate Holic out of sight. They're my top 3, thinking that both Antique Dream and Silverstream are stretched at 1800m. Been waiting all preparation for this trip for Dreamtime Dancer so she goes in for fourth.
4. COSMIC STORM - 3. IDEAL IMAGE - 2. BEDAMIJO
SUGGESTED BET - 4. COSMIC STORM $100
There is probably no more consistent galloper going around right now than Settlers Creek. He is one of those horses, much like Preselection, where you just know they will put themselves in a winning position up on speed and give 110% regardless of the luck they are afforded. Settlers Creek has been bursting to win a race for a number of consistent, consequtive runs now and on paper he looks to get his chance. Cronkite will carry a lot of punters beer money, a crowd favourite with a very imposing strike rate since joining team Williams. Was never a winning hope last start and from the gun draw should go very close. Pounamu rising to 59.5kg has put me off, he looks to have turned a corner as a galloper, much more relaxed, tractable and interested in previous runs. Outlaw Pete is definitely one to include in all exoitic bets backing up off 7 days, dropping 100m in distance and getting Brad Parnham into the saddle, a jockey whose style I think will suit him well.
10. SETTLERS CREEK - 7. CRONKITE - 1. POUNAMU
No doubt a lot of punters will have highlighted barrier 10 as a concern for Shady Gray however, I totally disagree. Drawn barrier 10 will ensure that he can slide back in the field, settle off the pace and track up in the three wide train before unleashing his powerful turn of foot over the final 500m uninterrupted. His first-up record was tarnished last start not by any fault of his own or ever rider Peter Knuckey. His effort was very good when held up the entire length of the straight after settling 3 back the fence. From barrier 10 Aaron Mitchell will have him in clear running and I think he gets his chance. Viking Forrest has been a hard horse to catch all career and a tough horse to follow for punters. This is a class drop and there was a lot of monetary support which suggested he could match it with Volkoff last start. Three Votes has blinkers removed and from his barrier trial one would assume that team Gangemi will be looking to have him settle midfield with cover. My concern drawn barrier 9 is that he is so brilliant away from the gates that he could easily end up three wide no cover throughout. Castle Retreat is one at big odds I am throwing into the mix after battling on well on top of a hot speed first up.
8. SHADY GRAY - 3. VIKING FORREST - 5. THREE VOTES
I think the biggest question mark many will have over Dream Lifter will be his ability to hold a position in running over the first 300m. If he can jump with the majority of the field and hold a position one off the rails, potentially one out and one back then he will take a stack of beating. Historically his best runs have been fresh and a recent Mt Barker trial suggested he was ready to fire first-up for Albany trainer Paul Hunter. Mitchell Pateman is $1.04 to produce an elaborate salute to the crowd if he wins and it's great to see the talented hoop riding bags of winners in the Great Southern. Smoko is drawn to lead this field and as we say in the Group 3 Prince of Wales Stakes if he can get his own way out in front he will take a stack of beating. Volkoff back to 1000m is a slight concern but her booming last start win suggests she will be up to them. If she gets the right tow into the race she has an electric turn of foot. Very surprised to see North Ridge in the Summer Scorcher but if you watch his first-up run at 1100m you would think he can give this a shake. Could the hoop outweigh the unsuitable distance query?
2. DREAM LIFTER - 4. SMOKO - 11. VOLKOFF
SUGGESTED BET - 2. DREAM LIFTER $50 x $50
Pretty sure this is the 2017 Perth Cup because Delicacy won on New Years Day 2016 but anyway it is an incredibly interesting race to assess from a form perspective. Anyone writing off Perfect Reflection because of the weight only need to look at last year when Delicacy conceeded rivals significant weight with her 59kg impost and was still far too good. Yes the weight will make it incredibly hard but you can not discount her brilliance and the tactical genius of William Pike. I am tipping outside the box and going with Zarantz for a boilover, drawn perfectly in barrier 4 and dropping back to the 54kg minimum I think he will get the most economical run just behind the speed and give a sight at eachway odds. Kia Ora Koutou and Fathoms of Gold are the two X-Factor horses. Whether or not Mattieu Autier repeats his Van Heemst ride is yet to be seen and over 2400m I expect it will be a lot more controlled, atleast over the first 1200m of the race. While Kia Ora Koutou surprised many with his mid race move last start when tracking Kirov Boy round the field and simply out staying rivals. Will Joey Azzopardi repeat those tactics or will he wait until the 1000m before making his move? Tradesman was equally as brilliant as Perfect Reflection in the 'Ted' but dealt a bitter blow at the barrier draw. Had he drawn a gate to sit forwards of midfield then would have been my on top selection.
15. ZARANTZ - 8. KIA ORA KOUTOU - 1. PERFECT REFLECTION
Here's hoping that everyone had a safe and enjoyable Christmas, landed a few cheeky multis (falcon) and that the punting Gods will let your luck roll on into 2017. This is the final preview from me for a while, next weekend is Pinjarra so there will be no written preview. I'll be down there working for Sky Racing Thoroughbred Central for anyone out and about who feels like saying hi or sharing an ice cold frothy after the last and then I'm off to Exmouth for a few weeks to chase sunshine, mackeral and GTs. Yes Rio, now I am living the uni student lifestyle. Liberty Rise really impressed me in the Starstruck Classic when she settled back and charged to the line. Back into restricted 62+ grade I think she is great eachway investment to round out 2016. Baraki Beats is a horse of mine and I think he is tracking along well this preparation. Very hard horse to follow and even harder to catch but in this grade he should go very close. Gloryland is as hit and miss as the Aussie Selectors with rumours that Ashton Agar could make a test return. Surely not, the bloke hit 1 six and serves pies. Nightwatchman taking on the older horses looks overs at $31 and his form around Where's Wally is sound.
5. LIBERTY RISE - 2. BARAKI BEATS - 1. GLORYLAND
savethegame likes this post.
hash likes this post.
Perfect Reflection , Ihtsahymn , Kia Ora Koutou , Dark Musket , Zarantz , Tradesman , Fathoms Of Gold , Star Exhibit , Dubai Escapade.
Who can't win it :
Cougar Express , Tick Tick Boom , Respondent , Neverland , Dark Alert , The Forgotten One.
( suggested bet have $1 a win on the six I say can't win! ) :-S
Thunderstruck, hash, RIO likes this post.
frenc11 dislikes this post.
will run well DM and is drawn better than last year when a very good 4th.He could conceivably follow the fav into the race that's what i'd do if their close together in the run, however KOK is still the one they have to outstay.
Gray likes this post.
I meant scotty ;))
2. 7. KINGDOM OF DREAMS
3. 10. MISS LAWRANCE
4. 8. ANTIQUE DREAM
5. 4. OUTLAW PETE
6. 7. CASTLE RETREAT
7. 2. DREAM LIFTER
8. 7. FATHOMS OF GOLD
9. 15. PLAIN VITAL
Have a great day on the punt lads :D
Gray, rustyh, thefalcon likes this post.
For what it's worth Greg Hooper has it on top aswell as our trusted Falconio
RIO likes this post.
nb - I was on it for a place as part of a Multi
#-o b-(
Legless likes this post.