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He will get close to 60kg for next year if he won Saturday
Maschino eachway all day !!
luckyg out to 4
only firmers...playing god 17 to 15 & niblick 31 to 21
$4 on offer is value. Keep plunging Ranger and Fat Al, we might see $5 on the day for Luckygray.
Im suprised Upon this Rock didnt get a mention in there.
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/railway-stakes-2012/
Luckygray- Won this race on protest last year and the handicapper obviously has a big opinion of this prolific winner assigning him with top weight of 58kg this year, a 5kg rise. Probably can run the best late sectionals of any horse in the race and has won at WFA a couple of times in WA doing just that from the rear. Given a slow pace here he might not be disadvantaged too much but not sure he can give some of these so much weight and win at a mile. Despite his record looking faultless at the distance (and it is!) one was a protest decision and the other a narrow victory over WA mare Rosie Rocket at WFA off the back of a sensational win @ 1400m two weeks prior, when giving considerable weight away to nearly everything in the race. Historically he has virtually nothing going for him but I guess he doesn't know that.
Fat Al- Epsom winner in September who comes into this after a very poor run in the Emirates off a month break. The gap between runs was probably not ideal for him and there was a massive pace collapse in that race after he and Rolling Pin ran their first 1000m in around 60 seconds. That was probably too fast for them to keep going and there may have been other factors at play too (headwind?) to explain their below average performance. Whatever the case that Emirates race always seems to play into the hands of horses well off the pace with this year no exception. This horse looks quite well in at the weights in this race being a G1 winner in the East and actually drops weight off that last run which is a bit of a mystery. That factor alone wouldn't encourage me to tip him but because this race appears to be devoid of pace you definitely have to consider him, especially from a good barrier. He will basically have to establish a new weight carrying record to win this but is still only 4kg over the limit and the tempo of a race can make weight largely irrlevant. Definitely a winning hope.
Playing God- Overall has a great record at this track but his last win was at WFA this time last year and he ran very poorly in this event last year, once again illustrating how poorly the higher weighted horses' can perfrom in this race. Not a bad run in the Emirtates but he did have every chance there from off the pace and a good barrier with Fat Al actually meeting him better at the weights 1kg for beating him home there. Well drawn here is a bonus but I want to see him do it first in a handicap race of this calibre.
Wall Street- 9 of his 11 career wins have come at this distance and he ran another very nice race in the Emirates (a race he has won before). Problem is he is getting older and has drawn the car park here which is nearly always impossible to overcome. Jockey reported last start that he just couldn't sprint with the eventual placegetters when it mattered so you just have to wonder whether the legs have quite enough left in them to make an impact here.
Yosei- Extremely talented but enigmatic mare who has 3 G1 wins to her name. One of them was at this distance in the Thousand Guineas as a 3yo. She has run 2 super races in G1 miles this Spring but n between ran an awful race in the Myer Classic which should have suited her more being at level weights in against her own sex. She hardly ever runs 2 races alike but if she does this time she will just about win. She has drawn wide though which normally means you have little hope in this race unless you are on pace, not her normal racing pattern. I'm not convinced 1600m is actually her best distance either, suspecting 1400m would be better. Whilst she is weighted to win this race at her best I can't get overly warm about her from that barrier first time in WA.
Westriver Kevydonn- Ran a distant 3rd in this race last year and meets Luckygray 4kg better for it this time around. Did win 2nd up this preparation in an on pace dominated and slowly run 1400m race before a disappointing effort at WFA behind Luckygray last start. Drops 5kg and a moderate tempo here should suit him and he is well drawn to take advantage of it. Just not sure he quite has the class to win though and he will have to shake off the better credentialled Fat Al up front if he is to have any hope of winning. He is yet to miss a place at 3 runs this distance and if they do walk here he could well do same again. Age is against him historically but he robably a must for multiple players given the lack of obvious pace in the race.
Lords Ransom- Old stager who is poorly drawn and almost certainly needs more distance and another run under his belt. Probably being prepared for a Perth Cup win in just over a months time.
Battle Emblem- Stablemate to the aformentioned and he looks hopelessly outclassed in a race of this stature.
God Has Spoken- Looks some sort of hope here on a historical basis excepting his age. Drops massively in weight off a 2L second to Luckygray last time and meets that horse on 5kg better terms, enough to reverse that outcome. Problem is he too is getting on in years and he did fail badly in this race last year. Quite noticeable too that his record at this distance is very poor. with only 1 placing from 8 attempts. Nevertheless he is drawn well and weighted well so has to be a place hope.
King Saul- Another that has fared badly with the barrier drawn and will need to be at his absolute top to feature from out there. Good effort to win first up (he is 3/3) followed by a mystifying last placing second up (0/2) at WFA behind Luckyygray. Maybe he runs flat 2nd up, is exclusively a handicapper and looking for at least this distance now? Hard to assess but that last run doesn't augur well for him on a historical basis. Looking to others but he could run into a place at big odds.
Blinkers On is interesting.
Maschino- Has hit form at the right time and history largely points to him as being the winner excepting that he does tend to get too far back in his race, which is definitely not the norm. He drops nicely in weight 4.5kg and the RJ Peters race that he won last week is normally a good guide to winning this. He also has a decent backup record winning once off 8 days and once off 7 days so he is tough enough to win 2 on the bounce here. I'm just questioning what he beat last week and a look at the replay doesn't really impress that much. The race was definitely run to suit and whilst he was in no danger of defeat you wouldn't say he was hitting the line with 'gusto' and the horse he ran past was Niblick who hasn't proven to be genuine and rather threw his winning chance away there by again racing fiercely throughout. Maschino's previous run was only fair behind Westriver Kevydonn in a race that wasn't run to suit. That horse was sounly beaten by Luckygray at WFA at his next start.
Once again this race looks to have a below average tempo so he might face an uphil battle. I'd have to say he is some hope of winning but perhaps his chances of placing are better.
Mr Moet- A very interesting runner due to his prolific strike rate and an ability to race well fresh. He has won his past 2 first up runs at 1400m and won 8 of his past 13 starts. This is a step up in class and a major assignment to win first up at 1600m. 5 of his last 6 wins have been at 2000m or more though so perhaps he is being aimed more at the Kingston Town Classic & Perth Cup? Very hard to say he can't win and the odds are very generous considering his overall record. A good barrier should see him get a nice run in the race .Has won his last 3 starts at this track so there isn't a lot to pick holes in excepting his ability to win a race of this calibre without a run beforehand. Definite place claims at least.
Niblick- Has let me down 3 times in a row now in his new career in the West. Whilst there had been excuses at his first 2 runs, I couldn't really find one last start where he was ridden more aggressively yet stilled 'pulled' ferociously leaving him a sitting shot late. Not that bad an effort to hold second in retrospect and the gear changes have been rung here. He might need more than that though as his head just doesn't seem to be in the right space at present. Drawn well and nice weight drop probably sees me having a speccie at big odds but even on his best form in Victoria he seems to be too close in the weights to trouble a lot of his Eastern States counterparts. On the positive side he has had experience in Perth and he could take a forward position. Take on trust!
Ranger- Absolutely and positively one of the best weighted horses I have ever seen in a G1 handicap! How he gets in here on the minimum has me flabbergasted as he is a G2 WFA winner and G1 runner up. He started close to favourite in this race last year giving away 3.5kg to eventual winner Luckygray. Unfortunately he got poleaxed from the interference that eventually decided the outcome of the race. He was beaten 6L and it is mere conjecture how much ground he lost in the scrimmage. Conservatively 3L I'd say and that doesn't take into account him having to get back into a decent rhythm. By the time he did the race was all over. This time around he meets LG 8.5kg better which is a monstrous weight turnaround. Even the last run at WFA in Victoria doesn't look too bad beaten 5.5L by Green Moon at WFA considering he gets 5kg weight relief here. Unfortunately there is a negative and that is the fact he is first up trying to win a G1 mile! Certainly no easy task but it does seem that his trainer has left no stone unturned giving him 3 barrier trials in preparation with the last one @ 1400m. Last year he had 2 trials @ 950m and was able to win first up at 1400m. The prior preparation to that saw him win first up over 1300m by 3.5L and seemingly with no trials.Suffice to say he is a decent fresh horse. Significantly Blinkers go on for this which could be the sealer. If they make him race more prominently (as you would expect) then he should just about win this.
Rosie Rocket- She has definite claims here. Probably the best prepared horse in the race when you consider her third up record of 2/2 which could possibly be 3/3 if you take the win on March 4 this year into account which was her 3rd run off a 6 week break. It has been 7 starts since she last carried less than 55kg in a race and she just happened to win that. Last December she spanked a decent mares field @ 1600m by 4.5L and did it from an identical wide barrier to the one she has here. She has an ability to race on the pace and if Glen Boss has done his homework properly she will be crossing from that barrier toward the leaders early in the race. If that all goes to plan she could possibly box seat or be in a one, one position getting the run of the race. She is very fit now and the run at 1800m has her set stamina wise to make an impact if the others find the going tough.
In June she was only just beaten by Luckygray at WFA this distance off a 2.5 month break whilst he was having his second run from a spell. She meets him 3kg better for that and is fitter than him this time around. Hard not to think she can turn the tables on him here. I don't like the fact that she gets no weight off Ranger but then again she has the fitness edge. She is a super chance here and the odds are ludicrous given the positives.
Zester- Really does seem to be making up the numbers here having not run as far as 1600m before and facing his acid test class wise. Can't have!
Summary;
Just have to go with Ranger as number one pick here given the handicappers overwhelming generosity. He will have to set a precedent to win this first up but the Blinkers go on which would appear to mean the stable is very serious about winning. And the early money was big for him which only confirms it.
Rosie Rocket next best and certainly a winning hope at generous odds if she gets over just behind the pace early.
Fat Al has to be considered and could get away with winning the race if there is no pressure up front.
Luckgray still comes into consideration despite not being well weighted and his get back style. He does have the best acceleration in the race, is a proven weight carrier, is an Athletic type and obviously has maximum respect from the handicapper.
1. Ranger
2. Rosie Rocket
3. Fat Al
4. Luckygray
Only 15 wide coming round the turn #-o
Hadn't seen a horse at Ascot that wide since Better Loosen Up won in 89
Good day on the punt yesterday 4 winners and 2 saved winners so good result over 10 races book ended with Beach Express and the Pontiff in the last . :))