Betting on more than one horse per race ie Dutching

H-BOMBER · June 2013

Just a question that I am sure it has been asked many times, but what are the thoughts on this? I have found that after doing my form and picking my top 4 numbers I invariably pick the winner from one of these selections. The last 3 Saturdays I have picked the winner of the race from my top 4 selections in 7 out of 8 races on the card (no, I certainly haven't backed them!!) and am interested to know if people do this and what is the best way to go about it.

I do now have a Dutching Calculator App which is very helpful, however, I am finding on a lot of the races I put through it with the closing fixed odds for the 4 selections seems to give a profit, but generally its not worth the trouble. Is there an optimal way to go about this ie how many selections, bank etc.

My theory is that I would run the odds through the calculator and target the race that has the best return (based on the available odds) and use my bank for that one race, instead of having a go an all races. I dare say though that the way the markets are framed that this wouldn't really work, unless you found a market completely incorrect in you personal view, so again its down to personal perception.

Cheers

:-?

H-BOMBER · June 2013

Further to this, if you are set on having 4 selections in the race, is it better to shop early on a couple of the selections and then work out what odds are needed for the others in the same race to ensure your required profit.

darkshines · June 2013

Price every runner, kelly bet on all overs, as though they are individual binary outcomes.

\m/

goose · June 2013

Usually have found Bomber that this is the only way I can consistently win punting but does require more time and effort so I don't often win. Also like to target one or two in the race and save on the other one or two find it easy to follow on betfair.

RIO · June 2013

Betting theories...damn minefield that one. I've tried to do a similar process with top 3, and found that yes i could get the winner out of most of the races, or a simlar ratio to you. But the returns were relatively small. Under 20% - so if you only got 4 for the day you are behind.. I then introduced a rule that if the favourite was under a certain odds then i'd either put it all on the favourite if i agreed with it, or not bet on that race.. That improved it to around the 20% if you got 4 home on a normal Saturday...

I have since gone back to covering no more than 2 horses per race. That way you can cover the selections even if they are red hots. Once again the return may be small, but i have also altered my novelty bets to reflect that as well, so if you have a win you generally have them coming in as well, and the per race return is sitll above the 20% if one of them is a red hot. If i dont have a strong opinion i just have a little e/w bet on one at winning e/w odds and wait for the better odds.

I've found covering 2 horses i can generally be in the black with 3 winners a card, as long as they average better than $3, due to the novelties coming into play, with less output for a greater dividend.

Dont know if that helps or makes sense, but i hope a few real punters on here post on this thread..

Rodent · June 2013

darkshines said:
Price every runner, kelly bet on all overs, as though they are individual binary outcomes.
\m/

This works, except on Saturdays where the overbet horses push lots of horses out to "value" odds. It's simply staggering how often the overbet horses get the races run to suit and duly salute. There are lots of "value" losers on a Saturday.

darkshines · June 2013

Yep, top reason to not bother with Saturdays. Unless your model incorporates a coefficient for ridiculous unders/firmers. Then it would be the bomb.

:))

carey · June 2013

mine has a factor called _CHEETAH

ableson · June 2013

check out the champion picks website they have a good staking plan aimed at dutch betting

lame · June 2013

only ever bet 1 horse. bet size depending on confidence, some races 5x5 other races 300 win
if i cant split two i occasionally do a quinella or don't bet that race

carey · June 2013

bomber, i couldn't contemplate backing just the one in any race, if i was a betting person.

as far as win betting goes.....
is there a difference putting $20 on each of two $5 chances to putting $40 on one $2.5 chance?
you will still win 60 if you get a winner with either scenario.

darkshines · June 2013

carey said:
mine has a factor called _CHEETAH

and do tell what this magical factor entails

hash · June 2013

betfair calculates your profit/loss for each runner when placing bets on each race, makes it a lot easier to plan your stakes

carey · June 2013

and piss some people off more than i normally do?
not a chance ds.

but if you are doing stuff with stats, or maybe using bayes, then you can figure the probability that 'x' will happen, depending on 'y'.

what if it's happening at say, * 3 for instance, from what it should, don't you think that could infer something, even if one does not know for sure?
thought it a quaint little name myself. :-B
you only need to know it's happening, not why, but still...........

H-BOMBER · June 2013

carey said:
bomber, i couldn't contemplate backing just the one in any race, if i was a betting person.

as far as win betting goes.....
is there a difference putting $20 on each of two $5 chances to putting $40 on one $2.5 chance?
you will still win 60 if you get a winner with either scenario.

Theoretically, yes, this the same thing. But prices aren't true probability, or are they? If I roll a dice we expect 1/6, but this isn't true for a 6 horse field, so I guess this makes finding incorrect markets the key

H-BOMBER · June 2013

But again, that would be based on my assumptions etc....

carey · June 2013

you need an idea of price yourself.
although you can only estimate a fair price, the better you become at it the better punter you will be.
what happens if you think the evens horse should be $3, or one of the $4 horses should be evens, and the other $10?
unless you are in a certain sydney syndicate, taking less than you should regularly, means a certain death.

the problem with finding incorrect markets, is that there are a few (honest) syndicates around, that make sure they are the ones correcting the markets, and opportunities are becoming less and less.
unless you are better than them, or VERY selective, you're fighting a losing battle.

RIO · June 2013

yes i probably didn't cover that in my novel...i like to have my starting price sorted before i do any betting....that has been the final piece to me being a better punter

bookielover · June 2013

I don't know if anyone still calls it this, but backing more than one in a race in my day, was called making a punters book. You pick your 4 5 or 6 horses, you work out the percentage and you back each horse to win the same amount based on the % being bet.

For example horse 1 is $5.00 that's 20%, horse 2 is $8.00 that's around 7.5% horse 3 is $12.00 that's 9% and horse 4 is $21.00 that's about 5%.

If you back them all to win the same amount, you have taken 41.5% which in the old is a little bit better than 6/4 or about $2.60 for your money.

So you need to be able to calculate bookies %.

It is then up to you if you are happy to get a 60% return on your money or not.

The danger can be that if you fancy horses that are lower odds in the market, you finish up averaging $1.80 which is 4/5 in the old and you are laying odds on.

That's fine if you are right with your selections, but can cost you plenty if you are wrong.

What I have described above is what Australia's biggest punter does. The reason that he is successful, at least he is thus far, is that he basically controls the betting ring, so he obviously knows what he's going to back, and in effect sets the market.

carey · June 2013

bookielover, who is australia's biggest punter, if you don't mind me asking?

bookielover · June 2013

Sean Bartholomew

carey · June 2013

oh, ok.
you are sure he is the biggest?
i would not have thought so.
maybe biggest using bookies?

bookielover · June 2013

You could put that proviso on it re the bookies, but I haven't heard of anyone that's bigger, which doesn't mean that there isn't anyone bigger.

If they are bigger than him, then unless they lose all the time, the Corporates won't let them on, so they can only be bigger losing punters. He's the biggest winning punter that there is.

carey · June 2013

i can remember alan woods having a chuckle when somebody suggested mark read was our biggest punter many years ago.
i would guess the same applies to bartholomew, although i don't know anything about him as such.
i think the biggest are the pari mutuel syndicates, not the biggest for individual bet size, but certainly the biggest in terms of turnover and dollars won.
i know of at least 3 of them that are active in australian markets, but there are probably more than that.

bookielover · June 2013

Zelko , I'm not even going to attempt to spell his second name. was, and some say still is the biggest tote punter not only in Australia but the world.

He turns over billions every year and was the subject of an investigation because of the kickbacks that tote Tasmania were paying him. The fact is that big tote punters get commission kickbacks from the Tab and have been for years.

As far as the biggest punter with bookies is concerned and on Betfair, no one comes close to Bartholomew. He absolutely controls the prices bet in betting rings around Australia both through his volume of turnover and because bookies are vary wary of him. Thus far, and I repeat, thus far, he has been a tremendous success.

The proof of his success will be, if he stood the test of time and is still around in 20 years.

Mark Read was a big punter, no doubt about that, and a lovely bloke as well.

I was a witness to his punting over many years. Yes, he did accept bets from Kerry Packer and then back the horses back with the bookies which probably inflated the level of his punting to the general public who had no idea that he was betting Kerry on the side, but he was still a very big punter in his own right.

He used to frame his own market and stick religiously to that market. If a horse was 8/1 and he marked it 9/1 he would not back it, such was his discipline. The evidence of that was at a meeting at Flemington where my father was operating on the rails. Mark was backing a horse to win 10 or 20 thousand with as many bookies as had the 9/1. By the way, this was at a mid-week meeting around 25 years ago, so that shows you how much you could get on for at that time.

My father had the horse at 8/1. As Mark walked past, my father said, you can have 20,000/2400 off me Mark. Mark said give me 20,000/2200 and I will have the bet.. My father laughed and said no, Mark laughed and proceeded 3 stands away and backed the horse at 9/1 with another bookie. The horse won.

At first I was dumbfounded that Mark had cost himself 20 grand for the sake of $200.00, but time has shown me that Mark was right. It is this discipline that kept Mark in the game, made him a multi millionaire and and enabled him to live the lifestyle that he wanted. Mark suffered a mild stroke not too long ago, and sold IAS. I haven't seen him for a few years, but I'm sure that whatever he is doing, he is very successful at it.

DarkTarget · June 2013

Bookie

The first name you mentioned absolutely controls the prices. Bartholomew would have almost zero impact on the shape of the market.

bookielover · June 2013

Hi DT,

You have always been a gentleman D.T. so it's nice to see you on a decent forum site rather than the Fair.

:))

I'm not so sure that at this point in time you are correct about Z. There are varying reports as to his actual whereabouts, and that since the issues he had, he has relocated overseas. My reason for saying that, is that a couple of blokes that used to do his business in Melbourne, are no longer employed. He might have others of course that have replaced the ones that formerly did the job.

If he isn't overseas, not that this would stop or curtail his ability to punt in Australia, and is back, then he's going to have a marked effect in the ring.

However, I have a very close relative in Sydney who is a rails bookie there and he works all city and provincial meetings and tells me that Sean is basically controlling the Sydney ring, so that's what I'm basing it on. Mind you, he can't get on for what he wants.

DarkTarget · June 2013

Hmmm now you have me thinking of who you are bookie....

From what i understand, Z has been on and off for a bit but is well and truly still around. I'm not saying Sean doesn't have an impact, but he's not controlling the markets around Australia.

carey · June 2013

so were those functions of any use dt?

DarkTarget · June 2013

Actually, I had a look over it and there was one more variable than i thought their would be (or is when i do it my way) so have put it aside for the moment.

Shouldnt you only need old_race and new_race? Isnt the variable days the by product of those 2?

bookielover · June 2013

No worries, DT. Between the two of them, I reckon they are carving the the joint up.But Z would definitely outstrip Sean.

I used to post on there under a different name, and stopped a fair while ago. I couldn't put up with the foul abuse that the usual suspects would dish out if they disagreed with you, or the blatant racism that permeated that forum, and still does from time to time.

Yes, there have been a few heated arguments on here, but at least it's a lot more civilised.

The other forum is completely stuffed anyway. Heaps of posters like me, that used to post there no longer do, and they can't even get a racing thread going with people tipping on it, like they used to.

If you treat people with contempt and like cr@p that is invariably what will happen.

G'day Punter!

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