Ascot Preview, 5th Dec 2015

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R1. Ascend Sales Trophies Aquanita Stakes - Scott Embry

The fact that this field represents a Listed race, where one runner, Prayer in Cee can scratch from a Northam Maiden event to get a start is farcicle at best. Only bad lucks gets Arcadia Dream beaten, she hails from form lines along side Perfect Reflection and Blackwood and this lot are, without offence, midweekers. $1.50 is short, but winning looks almost certain. No such thing as a certainty in horse racing...but she looks pretty damn close. Battle Torque the best of the rest and definite minor leg of the exacta. I think he is one on the rise and still has a lot of raw talent, yet to be fully tapped. More than Happy to take $2.50 the drum, even in a pay 1-2 event because he is the only one who I think can test the favourite. Saxophonist has been bitterly disappointing all preparation but this is quite possibly his easiest assignment yet.

6. ARCADIA DREAM - 4. BATTLE TORQUE - 2. SAXOPHONIST

SUGGESTED BET - 6. ARCADIA DREAM $100

Gray · December 2015

Ive just about got Pike winning or running a place in just about every race.

This week may be right up your alley @RIO

Should give you a fun day at the Punters club do mate.

TheDiva · December 2015

no deductions for emergencies boss.. which is why the market is 160% odd, allowing for the 25-30% to come off the top when at least four come out.

OliversTwist · December 2015

Learn something every second day

OliversTwist · December 2015

The other day I drink

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R2. Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic - Scott Embry

Really quite keen on Lite'n' In My Veins on Debut in the lacklustre Group 3 Sir Ernest Lee-Steere. Have been keenly following his trials and is on the very top of my BlackBook for horses to back on debut. Admittedly was hoping for a midweeker but this "Group" Race is far from that level of quality and I'm putting him on top on debut and as one of the better bets on the card. About the $4.50 mark which is a nice price and with one of the Worlds best jockeys in Douglas White riding for the powerful Kersley stable, in the famed Oakland Park silks he can get the job done here. Obviously the hardest to beat will be Let it Slip who really has had a faultless campaign and got the big win she deserves last start. Lord Conrad could be a value play with Damien Oliver aboard, half brother to Listed winner Lord Hatras and Iron Horse Ocean Cracker.

5. LITE'N IN MY VEINS - 6. LET IT SLIP - 1. LORD CONRAD

SUGGESTED BET - 5. LITE'N IN MY VEINS $50 x $50

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R3. Professionals Granger Clark Handicap - Scott Embry

Taking a bit of a stance against the more favoured runners here and throwing up 3 at decent odds in the hope that I can give some exotic assistance. Liberty Rise was the on top selection last start in Saturday grade and drifted from about $3.50 out to $7.50 because of the heavily leader bias nature of the track on Super Saturday. With potentially a hint of rain and definitely no Easterly predicted I think that he can bounce back to form here at a decent price. The first-up effort of stayer Galaxy Prince in the stables of Adam Fairey caught my eye first-up running 6th to Neverland, a form reference we know and trust. At $31 if he runs a similar race he finishes in the money here. Vital Edition has returned to form and can definitely turn the tables on the more favoured Tales of Summer. On an even track he can turn the tables and is worth inclusion at odds.

11. LIBERTY RISE - 1. GALAXY PRINCE - 5. VITAL EDITION

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R4. Perth Cup January 2 Handicap - Scott Embry

I found this race incredibly hard to analyse and the market reflects that with eachway odds the field. I'll go with Logic and go with "when in doubt tip Pike". He is the best hoop in the state and Cosmic Storm will appreciate every single inch of 1400m. 1200m was always going to be too far first-up and yet the punters kept coming for her over the unsuitable distance. Should be much improved second-up and I'll put her on top. Sireeze is in arguably career best form, a big statement for a runner who has a Hannans Handicap to his name. Randy 'Savage' Tan as named by H-Bomber midweek will be unleashing down the middle of the track late in the piece. Simon Miller usually wins one on the big days to brag and impress owners, hard to tip Sujet after that Winterbottom effort but maybe 1400m and Dougy White will be the key?! Who knows...

9. COSMIC STORM - 2. SIREEZE - 1. SUJET

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R5. G.a. Towton Cup - Scott Embry

I'm a sucker for certain horses and obviously Ask Me Nicely is one of those gallopers. I have a massive poster of the Grey in my room as the 9 year old Ustinov gelding was my first $1000+ collector. I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for the big fella but genuinely believe he can play a part at odds in this relatively weak edition of the Townton Cup. The 2015 Boulder Cup winner wasn't given a hope last start after settling on the inside at the back of the field and didn't get clear running until late. He is super consistent and $15 is probably a touch overs. Peter Hall sticks with Raising Dubai who was very heavily supported last start and nearing another win. Should get a cosy run along the fence. Rebelson is a miler to 1800m horse in my opinion and stretched out over 2200m is the major concern. Classiest horse in the race but tested at the distance.

4. ASK ME NICELY (NZ) - 7. RAISING DUBAI - 1. REBELSON

SUGGESTED BET - 4. ASK ME NICELY (NZ) $10 x $40

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R6. Jungle Dawn Classic - Scott Embry

Ideal Image was charging late against a heavily leader bias track behind Sheidel and I think she is Ideally Placed (pardon the pun) to notch a 5th win from just 12 career starts. Second-up record of 1 win from 1 start looks like it will extend to 2 wins from 2 starts with Iron Mare Wink and a Nod an early scratching. Beyond the favourite, Cool Trade should be improved with a drop in class, however, she has been racing below her best for a fair while now. Fashion Princess has been running some crackers so far this preparation but is no match for the favourite. Once she hits 1600m I'll be jumping aboard with my wallet primed. Standing Ideal Image one out in the quaddie.

4. IDEAL IMAGE - 3. COOL TRADE - 7. FASHION PRINCESS (NZ)

SUGGESTED BET - 4. IDEAL IMAGE $100

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R7. R.s. Crawford Stakes - Scott Embry

Silverstreams run in the Group 1 Winterbottom was enormous and you simply couldn't ignore the finishing burst. Pike jumps off Shining Knight who he elected to ride in the Winterbottom to reunite with the mare and I'll follow his lead here and put her on top of the stablemate. At 53kg she is brilliant proposition and should be charging down the middle of the track. Shining Knight was far from disgraced in the Winterbottom and should be fitter second up. He oozes class and only a fool would leave him out of their top selections. Along those lines, Travinator is too good to leave out and represents big value at the $17. Shouldn't have to spend a penny in the run from barrier 1 and could easily be leaders back. 3 wins from 5 starts first-up, 8 wins from 12 starts at 1000m and 6 wins from 8 starts at Ascot. You can back him at $4 the drum, now that's some serious Christmas shopping.

11. SILVERSTREAM - 1. SHINING KNIGHT - 7. TRAVINATOR

SUGGESTED BET - 11. SILVERSTREAM $50 x $50

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R8. Tabtouch-kingston Town Classic - Scott Embry

3 year olds have a rich history in this race and I've gone with the 2 fillies, Perfect Reflection and Blackwood on top in this years edition. Perfect Reflection has a perfect record and if either of these fillies were to put on a big showing in the Kingston Town would be a force to reckon with in the Cox Stakes over 2100m carrying only 49kg. Perfect Reflection has the pedigree to get a journey and the electric turn of foot to be a champion. I think she can win this from back in the field. Last year Disposition almost stole the Kingston Town behind Moriarty and Perfect Reflection will be out to give Grant Williams his first victory in the feature event. Blackwoods run in the Guineas was excellent, settling last and tracking wide from the 800m she was afforded no favours at all in running and reeled off the fastest final 600m, almost a half second faster than any other runner in the race. She can figure here. Magic Artist should be the best of the older brigade and the entire showed his class in both the Mackinnon and Emirates Stakes, hardest to beat clearly. Peters trio Delicacy, Real Love and Neverland are the best of the local hopes in my opinion. Best of luck to Chelsea and the ladies with Man Booker, a genuine star.

16. PERFECT REFLECTION - 15. BLACKWOOD - 4. MAGIC ARTIST (IRE)

PerthTurfTalk · December 2015

R9. Amelia Park Handicap - Scott Embry

Normally this is the weekly running of the Get Out Stakes but I'll be labelling this the Good Luck Stakes on Kingston Town Day because this field is as even as they get. The $4 fixed odds favourite is the 3rd Emergency, number 19, Express Dancer, who realisitically is unlikely to get a start and will leave major deductions and re-evaluations of the market to Saturday morning. I've settled on Cougar Nights who was unsuited first-up over 1200m on a heavily leader bias track and think that he can bounce back here second-up at big odds. $18 at the moment, probably $10 after scratchings one would think. Fuld's Bet could easily assume favouritism by jump and with the blinker on for S.Miller can definitely figure. Lenience was excellent first-up but aided by the leader bias nature of the track, this is harder. Quaddie: 4 / 1,6,7,11 / 4,10,11,12,15,16 / Fld - $96 = 25%

6. COUGAR NIGHTS - 7. FULD'S BET - 1. LENIENCE

obrienrb · December 2015

Does anyone else think if ideal image gets too far back from barrier 1 cool trade could off and gone by the time II starts hitting her straps??

butters · December 2015

butters thinks vampi lass can pinch this one at odds

obrienrb said:
Does anyone else think if ideal image gets too far back from barrier 1 cool trade could off and gone by the time II starts hitting her straps??

TheDiva · December 2015

obrienrb said:
Does anyone else think if ideal image gets too far back from barrier 1 cool trade could off and gone by the time II starts hitting her straps??

i dont think ideal image will get as far back as you think.

FreoHitman · December 2015

butters said:
butters thinks vampi lass can pinch this one at odds

obrienrb said:
Does anyone else think if ideal image gets too far back from barrier 1 cool trade could off and gone by the time II starts hitting her straps??

Be wary of the man who refers to themselves in the 3rd person... but I am hearing ya !!

Bucks · December 2015

Just trying to analyse race 2 in detail and i think it could be set up for Yoshi Noxious or Pushin Shapes.

I see Remember Berlin and Puteri Jewel leading but being from the same stable I can't see them going too hard. For this reason i think Yoshi Noxious might be able to sit mid feild or just in behind the leaders in order to get a few lengths head start in front of let it slip. Pushin Shapes will be right along side it. He got held up at a crucial stage last time and finished the race off strongly.

I don't think you want to be on the fence with the leaders not being able to run out a strong 1400m therefor i think total eclipse won't be able to get a clear run to the finish. Lite'n In My Veins looks an interesting runner but i think the draw may be a slight disadvantage as it looks like he needs a fair bit of room to get going due to his size and big stride. He might get cluttered up on the fence with the leaders possibly falling back in his lap.

That leaves Let it Slip. She is unlucky not to have 4 wins to her name with her biggest loss being by 2 lengths behind perfect reflection. The small field and strong westerly goes in her favor as she will (hopefully) be swooping on them late. Her mum won 3 at Rosehill over 1400m so the distance should't be a problem. The only thing that goes against her is i think the potentially slow pace of the race might not suit. That's why i think those that settle closer to the leaders might have a slight advantage.

FreoHitman · December 2015

OK Here is my $500 throw at the Stumps on a very difficult day

Race 1 - Saxophonist / Arcadia Dream Quinella $50

Race 2 - Let It Slip $50 wins

Race 3 - Our Finest Moment $25 EW

Race 4 - Stocks $25EW

Race 5 - No Bet

Race 6 - Vital Importance $25 EW - Roughie of the Day

Race 7 - Flytego $25 EW - 1 of 2 Horses way over the odds

Race 8 - Neverland $50 EW - 2nd of the 2 way overs unless she has lost a leg

Race 9 - Tiger Pete if Express Dancer doesnt get a start $50 wins

FreoHitman · December 2015

My bets add up to $450 but I will hold on to that , thats all I may have left along with confetti at the end of the day

Darkhorse · December 2015

butters said:
butters thinks vampi lass can pinch this one at odds

obrienrb said:

What sort of margarine do you think there will be at the finish

Thoroly_Bread · December 2015

Probably Flora, hopefully there is some sprinkles too and we can have fairy bread..

butters · December 2015

Darkhorse said:

butters said:
butters thinks vampi lass can pinch this one at odds

obrienrb said:

What sort of margarine do you think there will be at the finish

Not a big one. However Butters would like to remind punters of Vampi taking care of Real charm last carnival when real charm was $1.50. Butters is sensing a bit of deja vu

H-BOMBER · December 2015

Darkhorse said:

butters said:
butters thinks vampi lass can pinch this one at odds

obrienrb said:

What sort of margarine do you think there will be at the finish

If they do win, "they outta be congratulated"

8-}

Chelsea · December 2015

With every man and his dog tipping either Perfect Reflection or Magic Artist the quinella should pay about $3.00.
I'm sure that the majority of Media tipsters have tipped one or the other

thefusillijerry · December 2015

@chelsea I actually think Blackwood is the 3yo who will get all the favours up on the pace. If PR is ridden back I don't expect it to be a winning chance. If a swooper wins it will swoop on an on pacer unless they over cook the tempo and the leaders get swamped by a bunch of them.

The way Blackwood was ridden in the Guineas reminds me of the Oaks winner, Jameka. She was ridden quiet in the Thousand Guineas and flew home. Next start she went forward in the Vase and won, she did the same in the Oaks, leading all the way. You can't gas them all the time going forward, sometimes a quiet run allows them to run consistently at a high level longer into a prep. Yes PR has got the better of Blackwood but this is a totally different race.

LuckyLongshots · December 2015

The Diva said:

obrienrb said:
Does anyone else think if ideal image gets too far back from barrier 1 cool trade could off and gone by the time II starts hitting her straps??
i dont think ideal image will get as far back as you think.

I haven't done the form yet, but I don't think I'll be anywhere near Cool Trade, simply not travelling well enough atm. Albeit back to her own sex, will no doubt help!

octavius · December 2015

If Magic Artist has equal luck he will win the KT in a canter...but seems to find trouble in his runs and with that barrier could find himself 3/4 back on the fence and too short a straight and too many horses to weave....

The jockey goes pretty good though.

thefusillijerry · December 2015

octavius said:
If Magic Artist has equal luck he will win the KT in a canter...but seems to find trouble in his runs and with that barrier could find himself 3/4 back on the fence and too short a straight and too many horses to weave....

The jockey goes pretty good though.

Yeah I don't think he was the only horse to find trouble over the cup carnival at Flemington. I wouldn't read anything into it. They all wanted to be on the fence. Having said that Oliver rides the rail better than any hoop I know.

Makybedon · December 2015

@Bucks: Based on what the jockey said last start,expect Puteri Jewel to be given time to find her feet and not be bustled to lead.Ridden quietly should run the 1400 easily.

carey · December 2015

Below are your selections for the upcoming card.
R    No    Horse
1.    6.    ARCADIA DREAM
2.    6.    LET IT SLIP
3.    10.    OUR FINEST MOMENT
4.    5.    STOCKS
5.    1.    REBELSON
6.    4.    IDEAL IMAGE
7.    11.    SILVERSTREAM
8.    2.    BLACK HEART BART
9.    10.    BARAKI BEATS

G'day Punter!

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Ascot Preview, 5th Dec 2015

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