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  • lamelame    1,757 posts
    BTW 6 million in the steel and coal industry looking at being made redundant and shutting non profitable mills
    From memory each $1 increase in price is worth $1B so that's $7B not sure where these other 100's of billions are coming from
  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    As I said - journo getting their B's and M's mixed up
  • lamelame    1,757 posts
    edited March 2016
    No worries don't get me wrong I wish it was $200 a tonne , then i wouldn't be going from a 12hr shift to a 12.5 , bonus ,not looking at a possible pay cut knowing if we would even get a budget for 2017 and with that a job , just saying the rise will be short lived and the floor hasn't been seen yet although I'm saving for nickel 6-12months ;) LME stockpiles should be low to gone by then, only 2 mines worldwide breaking even and a lot shut , should see a nice rebound , oil still has a climb to sit at $60 but 6 years before it hits its top and peaks
    Copy and pasted from a 2014 paper
    It is worth noting that every $1 fall in the price of iron ore costs the budget $49 million
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,997 posts
    what about when India wants as much as it can get...it will not be long...
  • lamelame    1,757 posts
    edited March 2016
    2050 good 25-29 years to go yet
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts

    what about when India wants as much as it can get...it will not be long...

    India wont be as dynamic as the Chinese, so their growth will be slight, but steady.
  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    edited March 2016
    Soooooooooooooo, which one of Credit Suisse's clients wants to buy the tab hey??? I smell a big F**king rat.
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    have always thought about $100k was the right price......and if not it was a lot closer than 1Bil
  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    edited March 2016
    paraletic said:

    Soooooooooooooo, which one of Credit Suisse's clients wants to buy the tab hey??? I smell a big F**king rat.

    RIO said:

    have always thought about $100k was the right price......and if not it was a lot closer than 1Bil

    Inside mail put the value at $300m tops, so Credit Suisse not far off the mark.
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,997 posts
    Mmmm, I could take a guess but I won't...
  • AquanitaAquanita    566 posts
    The valuation may be a bit conservative but for anyone who has cared to read the RWWA financial accounts it was never going to be in the $1bn range.

    The valuation may put the handbrake on those within the industry who are supporting the sale and hoping that the Government will tip in part of the sale proceeds for infrastructure. 

    RIO, thefalcon likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    We're people really thinking that was going to happen @Aquanita ? Not being a smartarse. I'd heard it mentioned once or twice only and told those saying it that they are in dream land. And haven't heard that opinion for ages.
    After chats early on i thought that the $100mil price-tag would have meant that it was an easy sale and would allow for contractual obligations for the purchasers for ongoing infrastructure funding..
    If they sold around the $250mil mark i believe that the new owners wont chip in anything for long term development and i reckon we are all very confident that the Government (any Government) wont do that in the future either!!
    Next year it will be worth less and the year after less again and so on and so on. I feel the government would do well to get rid of it now while it is worth something
  • AquanitaAquanita    566 posts
    edited March 2016
    I fail to see how it can be worth less each year based on trading results over the past 10 years.

    Are you predicting a substantial fall in revenue for RWWA Rio?
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    No.
    Just a reduction of the value of their client list - undermined significantly already and the corporate raiders will continue

    With TABTouches profit base becoming more and more based on east coast and sports betting, it also reduces the value of betting on the local product as the corporates already have access to all of them.

    I reckon the Tabtouch will grow well, but not cos of its WA racing product. Also we don't set prices anyway and are basically totally underwritten for all our gambling by the very people who we are trying to sell to!?!!?!? Why pay a lot of money for something that you already own a fair share of?? And then to ask the purchaser to support an industry that does nothing but bleed money!?!?!!?

    Oh and I'm not pro one or the other...Fence sitter, but i just cant see how they would get anymore than $100mil without compromising the financial support the industry needs now and into the future.
  • youknowityouknowit    271 posts
    A 100 million for a business forecasting a 170 million profit this year sounds like a good deal.

    RIO likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    is that a profit on gambling or a profit after outgoings and costs???
  • youknowityouknowit    271 posts
    Its after.
  • AquanitaAquanita    566 posts
    edited March 2016
    Distribution to the racing industry comes out of that profit so a new operator would not be getting anywhere near that return.

    The only way a new operator could increase their net profit would be by savings in operations assuming they were an existing Australian operator.

    That would see all the staff in WA and Tab Radio disappear along with all the WA content.
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts

    Aquanita, that's why I'd rather it sell under commercial value but with contracted obligations from ongoing support of the 3 codes.

    There has also been a reality check within Government and Department of RGL during the initial stages of this process, that RGL isn't as stand alone and self funded as everyone thought and assumed. There is a lot of infrastructure/compliance support that is already paid for by the government, so the advertised returns to the government coffers are not exactly a clear and exact fiscal benefit.

    I've been told that if all the extra's that the government absorbs were paid by RGL then the net return to government is only in the millions. Yes it still wouldn't cost the government to run, but it also isn't creating a significant net return for the government.

    Sell on the cheap side, have a good structured contract for funding and infrastructure and make it profitable and beneficial for all players.

  • youknowityouknowit    271 posts
    RGL and RWWA are two very separate organisations.You seem to be confusing the structures here.
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts

    RGL Govern RWWA..........there has been a perception that RWWA contribute a great deal to the government coffers. If you take out the RGL costs of governance that are attributed to managing RWWA and other governance costs associated through government to mange RWWA, then the true net value of any returns by TAB to RWWA to the Government is nowhere near what the gross figure that Tabtouch/RWWA record in their financials.

    This has only been realised by the government in the past 12-18 months. When they started drilling down into how much it would cost the government to govern their part of the RWWA if the TAB was sold. I am very reliably informed that the true net financial value to the government is very small.........there fore the chance of any of the sell price being given back to the industry for infrastructure is about -10% chance of happening.

    Also, lets not forget this situation is very liquid. And the joys of such a confusing financial recording situation that has been used and not understood for years, generally means that anyone can make the figures tell any story they want to. What I got told mid last year, may no longer be applicable. But the reality seems to be that the recent report is getting a lot closer to the real value of the TAB, and any cash windfall the industry thought they may get is not going to happen.

    Oh and value and sell price are generally not the same. I recently bought a small farm that was valued by the bank for 480k, and I paid well under 400k for it. For something to realise its value you need at least 2 people who want it.

  • youknowityouknowit    271 posts
    RGL govern RWWA? Thats a new one. And you were reliably informed? So am i through the meetings i attend monthly at RWWA.  And there are at least two people looking at the purchase of the TAB.
  • AquanitaAquanita    566 posts
    RGL governance of RWWA would be miniscule and if RGL are claiming that they require substantial government funding for that purpose that would be ridiculous.
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    youknowit said:

    RGL govern RWWA? Thats a new one. And you were reliably informed? So am i through the meetings i attend monthly at RWWA.  And there are at least two people looking at the purchase of the TAB.

    So am I not allowed to talk to government ministers and their assistants?? I find them a good source of information personally. There are many players involved in this process as you should well know, and a lot of them like to have a chat.

    Sorry if I implied RGL was the only part of the government that contributes to the governance of RWWA, I should have made it clearer that I meant total government governance.

    And if RWWA don't get governed via the Department of RGL, then could you let me know who governs them? I've had a long held belief that RGL is the department that manages RWWA. Maybe i's wrong. It wont be the first time, but I'd really like you to let me know who governs RWWA if it isn't RGL

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    edited March 2016

    As suggested I'm wrong...My apologise for that indiscretion it appears as though it is the Minister for Racing and Gaming that is responsible for RWWA, not the RGL. My apologies to those who scoffed at my suggesting, especially the poster who meets with them twice a month!?!?!?!!???

    Gee we are in really good hands aren't we???????????

    8-} X_X
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    Aquanita said:

    RGL governance of RWWA would be miniscule and if RGL are claiming that they require substantial government funding for that purpose that would be ridiculous

    I like debating with you Aquanita. However I'm sure that feeling isn't mutual.

    Some of the requirements for governance are absorbed by RWWA already, but if the funding and structure were to change due to the TAB being sold then those functions of governance that RWWA currently do, would go back into the Department of R & G (not RGL cos that is a different department !!!) And those costs are in the millions...this is based on a costing model done if there was no TAB funding provided...

    I admit I'm not good at making myself really clear at times. That's just how I am, sorry about that. Maybe I shouldn't debate on here, so I'll finish by saying( I have to sign off soon) there are many current expenses that are either absorb by government or paid for by RWWA, that will need to be fully funded if the TAB is sold...IMO that is what will drive the Government to try to get the most out of the sale they can, and what will have a big impact on any guaranteed Government spending on any infrastructure.

     

  • youknowityouknowit    271 posts
    I BOW TO YOUR SUPERIOR KNOWLEDGE RIO AS YOU ARE IN CONSTANT CONTACT WITH GOVT MINISTERS AND THEIR ASSISTANTS. YOU PROBABLY SHOULD READ WHAT PEOPLE HAVE SAID BEFORE YOU MAKE STUPID REMARKS, ALTHOUGH STUPID REMARKS SEEM TO BE YOUR FORTE. IE GAFF. I SAID I ATTEND MEETINGS MONTHLY AT RWWA. 
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