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Belmont Preview, 11th Jun 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Pink Ladies Day Luncheon - July 9 Plate - Scott Embry
There is no more potent and powerful combination than Justin and Lucy Warwick at the minute. They are electric and his horses are absolutely flying. There is $2.20 on offer fixed for Elegant Blast and I would be gobbling that up. She will start closer to $1.50 than she will to $2 and looks home and hosed in the opening event. Big wraps on the Blackfriars filly and for good reason. Lock her into any multi and watch her breeze home, classes above this lot. Herron Point got away with murder when leading throughout to notch his maiden victory, this is harder but with the Pontiff retaining the mount will give some cheek. Veuve De Vega was backed off the charts last weekend and faded to run fourth after leading. Expect him to be ridden cold and allowed to work into the race. Big fan of the favourite and will fill the wallet with $2.20 tickets.
6. ELEGANT BLAST - 2. HERRON POINT - 5. VEUVE DE VEGA
SUGGESTED BET - 6. ELEGANT BLAST $100
There is no more potent and powerful combination than Justin and Lucy Warwick at the minute. They are electric and his horses are absolutely flying. There is $2.20 on offer fixed for Elegant Blast and I would be gobbling that up. She will start closer to $1.50 than she will to $2 and looks home and hosed in the opening event. Big wraps on the Blackfriars filly and for good reason. Lock her into any multi and watch her breeze home, classes above this lot. Herron Point got away with murder when leading throughout to notch his maiden victory, this is harder but with the Pontiff retaining the mount will give some cheek. Veuve De Vega was backed off the charts last weekend and faded to run fourth after leading. Expect him to be ridden cold and allowed to work into the race. Big fan of the favourite and will fill the wallet with $2.20 tickets.
6. ELEGANT BLAST - 2. HERRON POINT - 5. VEUVE DE VEGA
SUGGESTED BET - 6. ELEGANT BLAST $100
Comments
2) mystic maid eway
3) -
4) lay both on trend and socially unique. Feel it's an eway race
5) King river win/Malibu style places. Very keen on both
6) -
7) wink and a nod - best bet. Mr utopia places
8) scales of justice lay of the day. Will be backing a few eway. Spin da wheels, senso, infatuated, showy Chloe, baraki beats if it gets a run
I think the Pontiff can take a sit here with Two Silver Trees and then unleash powerfully down the long Belmont Straight. Lots of speed engaged with the fleet footed pair Prime Witness and Corvara likely to lock horns in a battle of early toe. I have question marks over the form lines of both Corvara and Prime Witness and am happy to be aboard the patchy grey and suggest that two favourites can get punters off to a flyer. Hopefully Harvey can position up behind those two speedsters and get a lovely suck run into the race and zap them late. Can't see Prime Witness crossing to the fence and from there she is a sitting duck to be run down. Sovereign Hall has been a good horse to me in his short career and the Universal Ruler gelding will appreciate the hot top end tempo. Mystic Maid dropping back to 1000m looks a huge plus and he is overs at the $11 on offer. Well worth an eachway investment with CJP in the saddle.
8. TWO SILVER TREES - 3. SOVEREIGN HALL - 1. MYSTIC MAID
SUGGESTED BET - 8. TWO SILVER TREES $100
Simon Miller holds all the cards in the third race with talented duo Ragnar's Saga and Key to Fame at the top of the market and also saddles up Rosmartini who was unfortunately scratched from an extremely winnable race last Saturday. Ragnar's Saga looks a nice galloper in the making and charged home first-up for team Miller when gunning down stablemate Puteri Jewel. This looks a distinct rise in class and I think he is definitely under the odds. May well win and I am tipping him as the on top selection but not a betting proposition in my opinion. Key to Fame should roll to the top and control the race. If Rosmartini positions up outside then the race will be controlled from the front. Great Shot is a very consistent galloper and will be there abouts when the cheques are being written. Just Like That will be the best bet of the month when Hec McLaren drops him back to maiden or midweek company. Keep him in the blackbook.
7. RAGNAR'S SAGA - 2. KEY TO FAME - 1. GREAT SHOT
I am completely off On Trend here and will label him as the lay of the day. When I did my markets I had him closer to $4 than $3 and he has opened up ridiculously short at $2.25. I think horses like Socially Unique and Eurosun are a class above him and he will be getting no love from me. More than happy to take him on here and leave him out of the selections completely. Socially Unique is a super talented type with an electric turn of foot. If he is anywhere near her best for this first-up assignment with W.Pike aboard then will be mighty hard to beat. Eurosun is a perennial place getter and noted bridesmaid, always seems to find one better than him on the day but should go close (as always). 2 wins from 2 starts at 1300m and finished top 3 at 8 of his 9 career starts at Belmont Park, a lock for any places all-up. Star Glitter meets On Trend 1.5kg better for their last start encounter after reeling off a faster final 600m. Hard to believe On Trend is $2.25 and Star Glitter is $19. Stay away from On Trend is my tip.
4. SOCIALLY UNIQUE - 1. EUROSUN - 9. STAR GLITTER
My questionmark over Cool Passion last weekend was where she would land in the run. On my speed map I had her three and four deep throughout not getting anywhere near the lead and that's exacly how it panned out. The only thing I didn't take into account was just how good she is. I did not think she could sit wide throughout and still win but boy was I wrong. Drawn barrier 12 here she will likely do it tough throughout again. Happy enough to butter up and back against her, hopefully I don't end up with another Omlette on my face. Bourne Supremacy put a severe dent in my wallet last start when ridden up on speed and gunned down late by talented filly Showy Chloe. Should get a lovely run midfield and if the splits come at the right time he can burst through gaps and win this. Bourne Supremacy to beat a game Cool Passion with King River storming into third placing is pretty much how I read this race. Nothing special or outside the box. Was waiting for the blinkers to be added to gear before jumping on the SS King River but he certainly showed last start that even without them he is a serious horse.
3. BOURNE SUPREMACY - 10. COOL PASSION - 13. KING RIVER
If you boxed the selections for this race and somehow hit the trifecta you would be sailing on your own yacht from Fremantle to the Bahamas. I think we can get a result here. Romelo was bitterly disappointing after an enormous first-up run. Stayers often flop second-up and he certainly did but the jury is still out whether or not he can run out the distance. That was his first career start beyond a mile and was only grinding. Happy to play around him, especailly from a quaddie perspective and see if we can jag a result. Putting I'm A Bluebagger on top at around 100-1 as a mad hope. Second-up over 2100m is certainly an ask but I think the mare is screaming out for these types of trip now days and can run a cheeky race at huge odds. First-up run when settling last on a leader bias track was sound and with the 3kg claim for Fiona Bell is pretty well weighted in a very even type of field. Empyreus is an enigma and becoming a painful horse to follow but I think there is a win right around the corner and it will eventually pay to stick with him. Low Flying was given no hope last start and is another who can run a race at odds. Been working nicely into form and has a sharp turn of foot when the race is run to suit.
2. I'M A BLUEBAGGER - 12. EMPYREUS - 3. LOW FLYING
Nobody can argue that Wink and a Nod is the current Queen of Belmont Park. 15 starts at the track for an incredible 8 victories, she loves the concrete surrounds, loves the long straight and loves Lucy Warwick. Their association is incredible and I hope she can go over East later in the year and match it with the best. Hard to tip against her here after she was backed as if unbeatable in the Belmont Sprint and duly saluted. Will do it tougher from barrier 7 than she did from barrier 1 but is clearly still the one to beat. Proceedwithcaution was epic carrying 61kg to victory and is a very handy pick up ride for Ben Paterson after Shaun McGruddy elected to retain the ride on Balmont Girl. Her first-up run was excellent coming from last and shouldn't be discounted. Hazzabeel has a huge following but still looks a bit below top class company. He will win his fair share of races but I think they will be 72+ and 78+ events rather than at Group and Listed Level. Hope to see the old champ Luckygray pick himself up again and run a big race.
14. WINK AND A NOD - 8. PROCEEDWITHCAUTION - 13. BALMONT GIRL
SUGGESTED BET - 14. WINK AND A NOD $100
frenc11 likes this post.
Scales of Justice is weighted to win carrying a postage stamp weight of 51kg after the claim for Randolf Tan. Drawn perfectly in barrier 5 the Not A Single Doubt gelding looks to have this race at his mercy. Impeccable career record of 3 wins, 3 seconds and a third from just 7 starts. Drops a commanding 6kg on his last start victory in 3 year old company at this track and distance.51kg for a horse of his calibre is too good to ignore and I am happy to label him as the Get Out for punters at Belmont Park on Saturday. Showy Chloe showed she is all class last start putting away a top line sprinter like Bourne Supremacy away with ease. Stepping up to 1400m should be to her fancy and I'm happy to have the fellow 3 year old as the one to beat. Spin Da Wheels ran another really nice race last start, hitting the line hard after finding a fair bit of traffic. Should get a cosy run from barrier 4 and is not without a hope of running into the minor end of the money at juicy odds. PTT Quaddie: 3,10,13 / 1,2,3,4,5,11,12 / 1,5,6,8,13,14 / 10,16 - $100 = 40%
16. SCALES OF JUSTICE - 10. SHOWY CHLOE - 11. SPIN DA WHEELS
SUGGESTED BET - 16. SCALES OF JUSTICE $100
Took multi at 54/1
Bowl A Doosra on Thursday $3.10
Elegant Blast $.2.70
Two Silver Trees $ 2.20
Scales Of Justice $3.00
On as soon as markets opened at Bet365 before heading to Pinjarra to watch Bowl A Doosra stroll in.
Also backed On Trend at its only 2 starts this prep but will not be on it tomorrow
Dale likes this post.
#:-S
carey likes this post.
Sov Hall wins again and at big odds (again)
would love to own a horse that won back to back races at those odds, wouldn't be far off retiring (off the punt) if it was me
:Pnotapunta, thefalcon likes this post.
Adebe
Balmont Girl
Reflectance
YEAH YEAH :P
watch her make a mess of the big one of the day....
like my attempt at reverse phycology there lol...
she had that one wide, but very very comfortable all the way. no probs.
i reckon there is a jockey that would have went right angles as soon as they jumped, but that's how it should be done.
not that i am betting or anything, i just like poetry in motion. =))
hash, thefalcon likes this post.
;;)
hash likes this post.
well done to the Impressive Racing team with Wink and a Nod in race 7 :-? :-?? 8-}
if i did bet properly again, it would not be wa.
i would never go back to having to verify everything again(which has to be done because wa is the error capital of the world as far as data is concerned), it's too much work, especially as i am on my own these days.