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can somebody keen on handicapping(or otherwise)please exlain this....

West Australian Racing

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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    Tivers said:

    Yes, Roganella I'd be kicking up about.
    Can't see the justification for that.
    Was a 62+ rating race.

    it is, for the simple reason that nobody can know how much it will have improved once it has reached being a 4yo
    all the handicapper is saying is that roganella will be 2.5kg higher in ability in august than it is now.
    it's bullchit.


    but i already know complaining will get them nowhere, because it's part and parcel of how they do it.
    their methodology makes perfect sense........to them!
    it's their methodology that needs fixing.

    as far as roganella is concerned, it had a rating before the race of 64 and that would give a 4yo a weight of 55.5 in that race yesterday.
    but as it's a 3yo then it would have had 53kg(2.5kg allowance) if possible, so it was to them 1.5kg out of the handicap.
    so their rating for it winning had to be what the rating would be for a 3yo in this race with 54.5 which is 67.
    then it gets 5 points for winning by a long way.
    there is your 72 points.

  • RodentRodent    7,476 posts
    On face value, Roganella was poorly placed. If Roganella wins a $60k open 3yo, it gets 4 or 5 points. Instead it wins a $40k grad and cops 8 points.
     However, if the WA Guineas is the goal, perhaps the points were necessary to guarantee a start?

    RIO likes this post.

  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    it's not really poorly placed.
    i would say the opposite personally.
    don't forget it still gets an allowance going forwards if in open aged handicaps
    72 would be 59kg in 62+ now, but it would be 56.5(if still 2.5 allowance) for roganella being 3yo.

    the 3yo races are all set weight penalty until april i think, so it matters not what their ratings are there.
    they get their weight depending on wins not ratings.

    those set weight races also make it IMPOSSIBLE to fairly re-rate horses out of them.
    but they will have some method they use, but it has to be wrong.
    because, unless the weights match the rating always, then one can't possibly be fair to all.

    peronally, i would take a broom to the entire rwwa racing/handicapping department.
    this is probably what you get, when nobody that matters, can mark them.


  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    RIO said:

    ^^^^^ me too...will be interesting 

    i got my reply yesterday.
    he is far more polite than me, so did not say straight out it was bullchit.
    but left me in no doubt that is what he thought.
    he could not figure how the race was given the 111.

    he asked me if i wanted him to check with RWWA for an explanation.
    i said only if he wants an answer for his own benefit.
    if he can't see how, and i can't see how, then i already know the answer, and don't need further confirmation that it's crap(the 111 of the perth cup 2016).

    RIO likes this post.

  • seanmacseanmac    7 posts
    Courtesy of Racing & Sports
    2106 Tabtouch-Perth Cup (2400m) (G2) 3yo&up SW 
     
    Number of Runners :14Fld. Average Win SR (31/147):21%
    Fld Number of Runs :147Fld Avg Place SR (70/147):48%
      Fld Avg Winning Margin :1L
    Fld Avg $ / run :$17,737Fld Avg Beaten Margin :4L
    % Ind. Winners in Fld :86%Fld Avg Winning Distance :2041m
     
    Race Type BreakUp :
     RaceType WH PLSR TW RTSR P S PM$ RTR 
     G1 0 0% 0 0% 2 12 $257,500 8% 
     G2 1 7% 2 13% 6 16 $550,000 11% 
     G3 1 7% 1 6% 7 18 $223,100 12% 
     LR 5 36% 6 17% 17 35 $617,220 24% 
     Metro 7 50% 19 32% 34 59 $863,525 40% 
     Prov 2 14% 3 50% 3 6 $88,800 4% 
     Country 0 0% 0 0% 1 1 $7,200 1% 
     NonTab 0 0% 0 0% 0 0 $0 0% 
     totals     31   70 147 $2,607,345 100% 

    Race Type Ratio:
    G1G2G3LRMetroProvCountryNonTab

    PLSR - Performance Level Strike Rate.
    % field that has won at each race type level.
    RTSR - Race Type Strike Rate.
    Strike rate of winners to have contested each race type.
    RTR - Race Type Ratio.
    % of race types contested by total field.
    WH - # of Winning Horses.
    TW - Total Wins.
    P - Total Placings.
    S - Total Starts.
    $PM - Prizemoney $AUS.


    * All Statistics relate to the previous twelve months period leading up to the race.
  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    The key to the discussion is "the expert" who said it was rated at 111. And we all know "the expert" is a fine, upstanding young man, from a great family who gives his heart and soul to this industry. "The expert" would in no way be wrong, or be deceiving anyone as he shows great empathy to one and all in everything that he does.

    Obviously you and your rating guru are idiots who stupidly pretend to know something about ratings...... Without the experience, guile and cunning knowledge that "the expert" has developed over many years within the handicapping area of horse racing, "the expert" is not to be questioned on these sort of issues as he is right....

    haha @carey we are in safe hands in WA.....kick back and relax and just trust us. We know what we are doing...we have "the expert" keeping us in line, on track, and at the forefront of racing in Australia. 
    ;) =)) =)) :)]
  • seanmacseanmac    7 posts
    my advice to the expert .... wine and compiling "accurate" track variants go hand in hand.see what happens when you don't. 

    the number of "too slow" races that week was muchly disproportionate to the norm.
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    seanmac said:

    my advice to the expert .... wine and compiling "accurate" track variants go hand in hand.see what happens when you don't. 


    the number of "too slow" races that week was muchly disproportionate to the norm.
    you're on the wrong thread.
    what has the above got to do with the offical handicap ratings, and if the 2016 perth cup was a true g2(it wasn't)??

    not to mention...i am the time expert here!!!  =))

    RIO likes this post.

  • seanmacseanmac    7 posts
    i'm like that guy (john / jon snow?) out of game of thrones ... i refuse to kneel lol
  • seanmacseanmac    7 posts
    the "too slows" from 3 meetings w/e 31/12/16 were running at the same rate as "average".

    not to mention .... i am the time novice here!!! =)) and i still refuse to kneel!
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    5,012 posts
    Listening to the handicapper talk about his discretionary powers this morning I couldn't disagree with him more. If two horses win a 62 plus worth 40k one by a nose one by 5 lengths why should the owners who happen to jag what appears the better horse have their ability to earn at their next start inhibited more by copping a bigger handicap? After all they dont give out any more prize money for a better looking win.

    There's a massive difference between the raiting you run too in a particular race and the raiting you deserve for your actual career point.

    My really simple idea would be to have a table where on one access you have a prive money band and on the other have a raiting band, in the content have raitings points increase/decrease.

    So for example if you are a 60 raiter you fall in the 60-64 band if you earn 40k prizemony regardless of the grade of the race (you could win a 60+ or run 2nd in a group 2 desnt matter) you know you are going to go up 4 points.

    Similar fo if you aren't earning, dropping points from a certain raiting would be in the table too.

    Keep it simple so trainers/owners can map out a program. I'm a 60 raiter, if i win this this and this at my next 3 starts I will be a X raiter and I would hav earned Y amount of prizemoney.

    Surely it isnt that bloody hard?
  • hollda09hollda09    225 posts
    Question-

    Why does The Shoe carry 1kg more than reykjavic on Saturday when reykjavic has a higher rating?

    Tell me to shut up if its obvious but i cant work it out
    ~X(
  • The_BullThe_Bull    930 posts
    hollda09 said:

    Question-

    Why does The Shoe carry 1kg more than reykjavic on Saturday when reykjavic has a higher rating?

    Tell me to shut up if its obvious but i cant work it out
    ~X(

    hollda09 said:

    The race is not a ratings based handicap, It's a 3yo SWP.

  • The_BullThe_Bull    930 posts
    > hollda09 > Question- Why does The Shoe carry 1kg more than reykjavic on Saturday when reykjavic has a higher rating? Tell me to shut up if its obvious but i cant work it out ~X(


    Not a ratings based handicap. It's a 3yoSWP
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    The_Bull said:

    > hollda09 > Question- Why does The Shoe carry 1kg more than reykjavic on Saturday when reykjavic has a higher rating? Tell me to shut up if its obvious but i cant work it out ~X(

    Not a ratings based handicap. It's a 3yoSWP

    indeed it is, but what an idiotic concept those age restricted races are.
    swp
    should at the very least be reserved for stakes racing only, and for
    the first month or two, for 2 years olds while they sort themselves out,
    but never for ordinary open 3yo's
    and it also makes it IMPOSSIBLE
    (regardlesss of what the so called experts says) to rate horse out of
    them in a fashion that is fair to all.

    and why does trap for fools cop 4 points for winning that race yesterday?
    somebody is on planet fairyland and it 'aint me.
    it was the only runner in the race that was not out of the handicap; varying by .5kg dark alert & bollywood to 9kg!! juicing carrots & CB
    in other words it was less than substandard
    but rerated as if it was a fair dinkum 88+!!!

    and it's even worse for dark alert that cops 3 points for beating the rest which were mostly all  a zillion miles out of the handicap.
    you have to be kidding mr.....i was going to call you mr handicapper, but i refuse to tell lies!
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    General:
    Trainer Mr M. Lane was interviewed by Stewards regarding his comments on Racing Radio on Tuesday, 19 December 2017 in relation to GEEBOSS being penalised 6 rating points following its win at Ascot on Saturday, 16 December 2017. He was subsequently found guilty to a charge of improper conduct under AR.175(q) for making an inappropriate comment in relation to the Senior Handicapper and he was subsequently fined the sum of $200.00. When assessing penalty Stewards took into account that Mr Lane intends to apologise for his comment and that he expressed remorse.


    what did he say?
    does anybody know?
    think they need to pick their complaints better, as that one looks about right in so far as the points it got for winning are concerned.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    So what does the winner of the cox stakes get penalised on Saturday?
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,979 posts
    edited December 2017
    ^^No. Can't be penalised for winning weight for age races. ( As far as I know )
  • careycarey    6,424 posts

    ^^No. Can't be penalised for winning weight for age races. ( As far as I know )

    yes they can(and they do)
    your handicappers(and maybe others) mistakenly think that wfa are the same or better than comparable handicaps and they're not.
    at wfa the best meet the inferior on equal terms depending on age and sex, handicaps they have to give weight to those same inferior horses.
    the horse that won the kingston town for instance went from 96 to 107, which I don't know if is fair or not because i have not studied it
    but knowing who does it, then i would guess it's wrong!!

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts

    ^^No. Can't be penalised for winning weight for age races. ( As far as I know )




    I think the same, but I wanted to make sure. Seems you can !

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  • JellJell    1,202 posts
    My knowledge in handicapping was non-existent until this thread. After following it and educating myself in the area, I did some research of my own.

    After hours of deliberation, I’ve finally come up with the reason the handicapping is so skewed:

    HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS


  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    Jell said:

    My knowledge in handicapping was non-existent until this thread. After following it and educating myself in the area, I did some research of my own.

    After hours of deliberation, I’ve finally come up with the reason the handicapping is so skewed:

    HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS


    And that has dispelled the rumour that everyone has been spreading about you being a slow learner!!!! hahahaha... Perfect analysis....I said somewhere else that I got a warning about comments on social media. It looks like they are once again going after the people talking about problems, rather than the people creating the problems...

    Don't know what the conversation was carey as I stopped listening the day they bought the trotting man in... Well I reduced my listening when Shortte was there and the new crew are even more distracting and uninteresting to me, so not listened for about 2 years!!!

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  • JellJell    1,202 posts
    RIO said:

    Jell said:

    My knowledge in handicapping was non-existent until this thread. After following it and educating myself in the area, I did some research of my own.

    After hours of deliberation, I’ve finally come up with the reason the handicapping is so skewed:

    HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS


    And that has dispelled the rumour that everyone has been spreading about you being a slow learner!!!! hahahaha... Perfect analysis....I said somewhere else that I got a warning about comments on social media. It looks like they are once again going after the people talking about problems, rather than the people creating the problems...

    Don't know what the conversation was carey as I stopped listening the day they bought the trotting man in... Well I reduced my listening when Shortte was there and the new crew are even more distracting and uninteresting to me, so not listened for about 2 years!!!
    I tuned in and out about 6 months ago trying to get them to answers issues. I've sent texts, multiple times, with no answer. I also put out a tweet from my personal account which I got a response saying "We'll look into it", I never received any response to it.

    Handicapping is just one of the issues plaguing WA racing at the moment and granted it seems like an important one. There is a myriad of issues though, including TABtouch being partially managed by corporate's (I bang on about that one more than a pornstar).

    If anyone from Perth Racing or RWWA reads these forums how about getting together people from all areas of the industry and coming up with some solutions. I'm more than happy to put my money where my mouth is and stand in front of anyone and voice my concerns, I'm not one to hide behind a keyboard. As I just sold my last shares in my dogs, I'm no longer an owner but I'm more than happy to represent the degenerate gamblers in the industry.

    Even with all it's problem, I still love WA racing and don't want to see it further down faecal creek without a paddle.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,979 posts
    edited December 2017
    Tim Gossage when he was the main announcer on the morning show, in fairness let punters call in with any complaints etc...and they did!

    The segment didn't last too long..wonder why ? :-?? Freedom of speech only applies when the speech favours the establishment, otherwise it's not so free...literally!! ( Michael Lane, Rio haha )

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  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    I've spoken out many times, at meeting and have no problem asking questions also Jell. maybe a PM to Fastmoney and ask him if his sub committee he is on is addressing any of these issues. it may be a pathway to be heard.

    One for you @carey ..... sorry that should read another one for you!!!

    The Black Watch is in at Bunbury in a Class 1, 52+ Race 5 Carrying 58.5kg with a 59 rating.
    He raced last time in a Class 1, 52+ race, carrying 58kg with a rating of 60 rating.

    So for coming 6th in his last race, dropping 1 rating point, he has to carry an extra 0.5kg in the same class of race next time he steps out?????

    I do see that the Class 1 52+ race he is in on Sunday has got (+1) on it....Is this the difference??? If so, what is achieved by doing the +1...Who gets the benefit???
  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    He got fined for that!!!!!!!!! Racing is FU CK ED if a trainer cant comment on some of the muppets that are FU CK ING up this industry

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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,505 posts
    just listened...cannot believe he got fined.
    they said nev. parnham made exactly the same points...was he fined.
    what was the fine? i'll say Michael refuses to pay..then again that would lead to a suspension.
    indeed, rio it seems the joint is indeed pharqued...having said that trainers and owners are almost at exploding point and feel there will be a huge cat fight in the new year...

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  • saxonsaxoffsaxonsaxoff    179 posts
    RIO said:

    I've spoken out many times, at meeting and have no problem asking questions also Jell. maybe a PM to Fastmoney and ask him if his sub committee he is on is addressing any of these issues. it may be a pathway to be heard.

    One for you @carey ..... sorry that should read another one for you!!!

    The Black Watch is in at Bunbury in a Class 1, 52+ Race 5 Carrying 58.5kg with a 59 rating.
    He raced last time in a Class 1, 52+ race, carrying 58kg with a rating of 60 rating.

    So for coming 6th in his last race, dropping 1 rating point, he has to carry an extra 0.5kg in the same class of race next time he steps out?????

    I do see that the Class 1 52+ race he is in on Sunday has got (+1) on it....Is this the difference??? If so, what is achieved by doing the +1...Who gets the benefit???
    From my understanding they have to have a top weight of 59kg in these races. The highest rated horse in this case is grand cadeau with a rating of 60. Working up from the minimum 54kg weight only gives GC a weight of 58kg (+1kg for every 2 ratings points above 52). So in order to give the toppy 59kg every horse goes up 1kg making the minimum 55 instead of 54. That's what the +1 is for. 

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  • spinkingspinking    4,002 posts
    Not disliking your post Rio disliking the fact Laney got fined for it might ask him how much. Bloke says what all trainers are trying to get across and cops a fine my god

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