G'day Punter!

Sign In Register

In this Discussion

Who's Online

0 Members & 36 Non Members

2019 Perth Cup - early thoughts.

West Australian Racing

Comments

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    If Galaxy Star wasn't in the field Mississippi Delta would be ( false ? ) favourite...say's it's a very open race outside of Galaxy Star and anyone of about 5 or 6 of them could be favourite.

    The cerise & white runners are all well fancied but still wide apart depending where you look. The added intrigue of Material Man is making this an unusual ( betting ) race - for the usual suspects!
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    At the end of the day...Galaxy Star may beat Gatting or Material Man - same Railway Stakes trifecta and 2,3,4 placings in the KT...proving that a good handicap miler, can run well in a WFA Kingston Town, and rebound to fill the placings in a 2400 metre handicap Perth Cup. Time will tell.

    The Galaxy Stars, Material Men and Gatting Guns are the horses of the future to own! All round flexibility.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,553 posts
    Material Man returns a positive swab and is not running tomorrow.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,553 posts
    https://thewest.com.au/sport/horse-racing/material-man-returns-positive-swab-ng-b881057427z.amp?__twitter_impression=true
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,553 posts
    What a joke this is becoming. It's BS
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    Wow that's dissapointing. Nice if you took the $2.20 Galaxy Star a week or so ago, but darn right shocking if on MM before final field declared.

    The major problem in futures betting and why it's a bookmakers dream bet ( overall ), no refunds.
    +1 -1
  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    still not a scr on cris site for 2moro
    +1 -1
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Wow that's dissapointing. Nice if you took the $2.20 Galaxy Star a week or so ago, but darn right shocking if on MM before final field declared.

    The major problem in futures betting and why it's a bookmakers dream bet ( overall ), no refunds.

    $2.40 over here  :-*

    Ridersonthestorm33, therealkramer likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    If MM comes out ( he will ) then think Galaxy Star will be as short as $1.30 to $1.40...with Gatting only other runner under 10/1.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    ^^Talking CB Cox Stakes of course...would be funny if scratched from Cox Stakes and ran in the Cup!
    Don't think we'll see him in either though.
    +1 -1
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,404 posts
    cox down to 7 starters... :-?
    +1 -1
  • NgawyniNgawyni    780 posts
    Why 7?
    +1 -1
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,404 posts
    I think the 2 of warwicks will be out...

    H-BOMBER, Ngawyni likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    Material Man officially scratched from Perth Cup
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    Galaxy Star into around $1.80 for the big one.

    Just thoughts on the seven of them from the Cox.
    Galaxy Star - obviously the one to beat. Deserve to be about 4/5 ?
    Gatting - did he over race a fraction ? Good run - quality horse.
    Perfect Jewel - she's improving but still happy to pass on her. ( As a wining chance )

    The Rest.
    Prize Catch - yes liked the run albeit a fair way off the top three.
    Star Exhibit - give him the benefit of the doubt that he's a rough place chance in the Cup. Appears lengths off the horse he was just the same.

    Prying Tom - think will struggle. Leaving him out of calculations.
    Dark Musket - wait until the WA 3200 Cup!

    The horse going to add in as a first four player ( that didn't have before ) is Prize Catch.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    The other 2100 metre race -The Big Show, like him - including on the flexi first four ticket.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,553 posts
    Looks like Prying Tom won't be going there if Kennedy's comments anything to go by.

    The first 3 cleared out from them.

    Hard to see anything challenging the top 3 in betting. Galaxy should be going there in a very light on year...maybe wouldn't if it was a stronger renewal.

    I think the 3 kg turnaround for Gatting is crucial. Galaxy had it world perfect today and Gatting was forced to go early with the plodding speed. There will be more speed in the cup which is another crucial element.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,553 posts
    Is tally even here?

    Weights for the cup looking like

    59 Galaxy Star (110)
    58 Gatting (108)
    55.5 Tally (103)
    55.5 Star Exhibit (103)
    53 the rest (highest rating is 93!!)

    Now that Acherner star is out as well leaves a massive gap between Star Exhibit (103) and Prize Catch (93). This means that the race is most likely looking like a 98+ with all minimum weighted horses worse off by at least 2.5kg!

    Star Exhibit meets them all better off, but is he going well enough? Definitely right stable. Tally the big unknown.

    Elegent Blast could be a KO horse by sneaky Warwick...again though it would be a massive upset and ratings hike for it.

    I'm hoping Galaxy doesn't run for Gattings sake. He still meets them all better off except for Star exhibit. The race would be a 96+ but the lower rated horse won't meet the minimum still.

    Just hope the big fella pulls up well!
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    Goodness knows about Tally...he's got some form that makes a case for him being one of the favourites...other runs awful. For me no don't think will start.

    Is their some doubt about Galaxy Star ?

    Star Exhibit had a scintillating win just before winning his Perth Cup - his form now is average at best..gone off him - but putting him in first four!

    If Galaxy Star doesn't run then everything changes and horses like The Big Show, Star Exhibit, Prize Catch will go up a notch or two in estimation.

    Ridden fairly quietly out the back from go to whoa Prize Catch after an awkward jump. Thought hit the line ok. But around 25/1 is his correct price.

    Agree Elegant Blast is the blow out - if she runs!
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    See too that finally after being kept tight in the market that Missisippi Delta has got the drifts from $5 to $7. Doubtful starter ? Haha.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    Just on the Cup market Galaxy Star is $1.80 on Tabtouch and they have four horses $7 or less...that's just rubbish and shows the shocking high % in their favour.

    You can't have a horse 4/5 and four horses 6/1 or less. Unless you're a non competitive bookmaker. Bingo haha.
    +1 -1
  • goosegoose    1,637 posts
    Is Galaxy Star a definite starter in the Cup?
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    One thing definite..wouldn't be taking $1.80 to find out!

    The difference in odds between Tabtouch & Sportsbet is quite a great deal on a few horses. Bet365 has suspended betting.

    Sportsbet have Galaxy Star $2.60, Perfect Jewel at $12 and Cappo D Oro $18.
    The market continues to fluctuate wildly ( between corps ) even the one thing that was constant - Galaxy Star - has taken a twist.

    therealkramer likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    certainly not promoting them as they're my least favourite for personal reasons but Ladbrokes seemed to have been offering the best prices on most of them up until this morning

    they were the only one to still have the Perth Cup market open yesterday during the Ascot meeting and you could have got $17 for the Big Show pre and post race after it's win if quick enough....
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,553 posts
    Perth racing have a massive problem if either or both the the two don't start.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    Were very lucky they had an in form Pounamu & Material Man for the previous edition.
    This time it's looking shakey.

    Last week would have said 33/1 The Big Show - think he's a progressing good chance now. But that's of course more so if Galaxy Star out.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    Wonder if their is anything left in Star Exhibit ? Has it been the Cup all along where he will bounce back ? If this field fell away much more, guess got to be some hope, and will still be double figures.

    Never changed the mind so much on a horse!

    The $11 and $12 ? each way that was available all last week on Gatting - a good ticket if you're holding.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    That's providing Gatting is not in doubt too! Can't keep up with it all...then Tally will probably lob and beat the lot of 'em!
    But he's probably in a nice paddock having a spell - how would you know ?

    Just need about another 12 of them to come out and my $10 each way on Dark Musket @$151 and $38.50 a drum can be retrieved from the waste paper basket. Might need a fraction more than 12.
    +1 -1
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    825 posts
    Really its ip to the Handicapper to use his scull and not to go stupid on the handicaps,(sometimes you wonder what they are thinking)do if they want top levelers Galazy Star and Gatting go easy on weights otherwise they wont be there.no way can you expect them to carry 60kg+
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2018
    So that's why Galaxy Star is in some doubt...the weight she might be allocated ?
    She's running. If scratched because of her allocated weight I'll go and jog 3 laps of the course proper!
    +1 -1
Sign In or Register to comment.