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GP 18/01
Harness & Greyhounds
Gilgamesh
4,739 posts
R1: No3 As Happy As Larry. I like this gut tonight. I'd like to see him in the breeze, it is probably likely with Im Soxy happy to lob the 1,1 but it could easily go the other way. I just think he can sit outside of Stefsbest and go past him. EQ:1,3,4.
R2: Not a race i'm overly keen on. You would think Golden State would lead and win but there is some speed under him and they have openly stated the think he is better sat up (I'm not so sure). Simba Bromac has a great winning record, clearly has a big chance but he isn't one of mine. JayJays horse Neighlor is a blowout chance and probably represents the bet option for a couple of dollars EW. EQ: 4,5,7.
R3: No2 Bettor Aim. I think Bettor Aim is the more likely winner but at the prices Chiaroscuro is probably worth the punt. I had it pegged Chiaroscuro having a crack for the top, not quite getting it, Bettor Aim sitting on him and running over them but he could lead, not even have a crack for the lead. Tell you after 200m. EQ: 1,2,3.
R4: Not a race I'll be betting up in and it definitely doesn't look his race but Major Rush was a real flashing light run, he's out of the handicap here but I will be having the ash tray money on him and throwing him in the quad hoping for the pool. EQ: 2,3,8. 100% costs $81.
R5: No2 Rocknroll Lincoln. I have to stick with him, I think he will lead which is bloody hard in this race now but his biggest danger doesn't have a buddy to help keep the rate up like in previous years. I think that Saying Grace doing no work is a chance, some knocking that it was behind them in a close finish but then talking up El Jacko for the identical thing. I do however have doubts about it being a 2900m horse. I thought Runrunjimmydunn was a fantastic run, no idea how it would work for him to win and he probably does something similar running a nice race to be just behind them but at the price I again have to head back to the ash tray. You have to respect the fav, great horse, great record, too short in the market. Not a race i'm confident in but I do like it, heaps of questions should make it a greeat watch. QD: 2,3,5,11.
R6: No3 Lagoon Stride. I thought he would get a soft lead here and just be winning, $7.50 ladbrokes, I will be betting this one. Again his numbers don't say it but Jaxon Fella is bursting to win a race, soft on the pegs if he gets the gaps he will be flashing. Certainly not an in depth look into Bushido's form but odds on I will be staying away from. Can run some time but I'd want to see it here. QD: 1,3,6,10,11.
R7: No5 Caviar Star. He will probably win but again at those odds I'd want to see him to do it, it's not like he is just going to lead and do it as he likes. Ohoka Darcy is likely to lead and stop the last 80m but could just keep going. I actually give Parisian Party Girl a chance in this sat just up behind them, another few bob EW go. QD: 1,3,5,10,12.
R8: No10 Whoswhointhezoo. You want to back a horse that is going well, is racing genuinely and is at a nice EW price this is your guy. He will just sit on the fence somewhere and be all over them late. I think Clarenden Hustler is a winning chance but those odds are poison. There's a chance this is a hotly contested lead and that brings his stablemate Brookies Jet right into it at the 40/1, non of them might come in but there is some exceptional value worth a few coins about in this meeting. QD: 1,2,3,4,10. 100% costs $500!!! Def need a bolter in to make this one worth while.
R9: No10 Luis Alberto! Come on Luis stick it up em! (Sorry for spelling your name wrong last week mate).
R10: No7 Marry Catherine. I thought she was the leader and a bloody good chance of being the winner, looks like being some great value on offer about her.
Happy Punting.
+1 -1
Ridersonthestorm33, VillageKid, curmudgeon likes this post.
Comments
Galactic Star just like the Fremantle Cup continues to drift out to $5 and at this rate may start at around $6 or better.
Tabtouch has Maczaffair very short a place @$3.70, plenty of $6 around.
Runrunjimmydunn is at $126 and $17, not bad odds for a handy horse.
Race 8 - #1. Kaptain Kenny. From the bullet draw again, make the most of it! Place special.
Race 9 - #10. Luis Alberto. Soft run - go you good thing. Bigger place special!
All onto to win
Race 10. - #9. Gotta Go Gabanna - if ever a horse deserves a win its her, she will be odds on, barrier 9, will have to work around to the breeze again - she never gets it easy but has terrific stamina.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
10k first four jackpot: am going 2,3 to win and 1,7, 8,10,11,12 to follow through with.
Good support today too for Runrunjummydunn, likewise Vultan Tin and all the faves have drifted.
Offthebit, Markovina likes this post.
Two favourites 1st and 4th - split by the two peg runners.
curmudgeon likes this post.
Bond horses ran well but no cigar.
VillageKid likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33, Gilgamesh likes this post.
Been on the other two as well!
Offthebit likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
curmudgeon likes this post.
Shortly after the start you would have been As Happy As Larry.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
You just need one upset the GP quad as the fav results are so over bet.
Ridersonthestorm33, curmudgeon likes this post.
Gotta Go Gabbana!
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Keep telling anyone who'll listen - the more things change, the more they stay the same.
At this stage she's a breeze specialist. As good as that is when goes against the top horses, as tough as she is, it's going to be even tougher.
But she will win the Pacing Cup in 2020!
curmudgeon likes this post.
No doubt the flat 20% takeout rate helps to achieve a good dividend.
Your getting hit just once in comparison to a 14.75% ( think it is ) takeout rate on the win bet four times over.
Also then taking into account Tabcorps rounding down of dividends to the nearest ten cents 8-| makes for a larger takeout figure than 14.75%.
Quaddies if you can get them deserve to pay well and on many occasions they do.
Possibly six or seven different winners depending on the luck of the draw.
Marshall and Lincoln got the luck - Bond stable didn't. #winnersrgrinners.
In saying that, and realising it's a case of "you're darned if you do and darned if you don't " it's WA's richest race - the lack of a contest for the early lead and the lack of pressure applied to Rock'nroll Lincoln - astounding.
Well played Junior - out drove the rest of them and made his own luck.
Three of the biggest races on the Harness calendar in the previous 6 weeks.
Interdomion - Tiger Tara - leads all the way.
Fremantle Cup - Field Marshall - leads all the way.
WA Pacing Cup - Rock'nroll Lincoln - leads all the way.
Moral of the story..."lead from the front!"
Horses are winning big races at GP - purely off the barrier draw -
Matty White won a WA Derby on an average horse - purely because guess what it drew barrier 1 and led all theway - and i think the 2nd horse was barrier 10 that year
WA have 1 fair track in Pinjarra - the rest of them are a joke - screaming leader tracks - makes the product very boring
I dont even follow the WA form anymore - its a waste of time
VillageKid, PackedMetalPanda likes this post.
JayJay, jum likes this post.
Yet you feel the need to post on a WA Harness Racing public forum bagging everything out every chance you get. You’d be a hoot at parties.
JayJay, VillageKid, Rocket_Reign, jum, Offthebit likes this post.