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Belmont Preview, 6th Jun
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Westspeed Plate - Scott Embry
Happy to take close enough to even money on Fred Kersley's boom Blackfriars filly Blackwood. Her two wins to date have been dominant and she should win this with one eye closed. Lucy Warwick is 2 from 2 and she should position up close to the speed and simply zap them halfway up the straight. Regal Gleam should provide her toughtest test to date. Will probably have to sit outside Laurensen but the Alfred Nobel youngester is all class and sure to fill the minor end of a highly popular exacta. Black Cuban is looking for every inch of a mile already. Ranger's half brother Courageous Hero best of the rest.
2. BLACKWOOD - 1. REGAL GLEAM - 3. BLACK CUBAN
SUGGESTED BET - 2. BLACKWOOD $100
Happy to take close enough to even money on Fred Kersley's boom Blackfriars filly Blackwood. Her two wins to date have been dominant and she should win this with one eye closed. Lucy Warwick is 2 from 2 and she should position up close to the speed and simply zap them halfway up the straight. Regal Gleam should provide her toughtest test to date. Will probably have to sit outside Laurensen but the Alfred Nobel youngester is all class and sure to fill the minor end of a highly popular exacta. Black Cuban is looking for every inch of a mile already. Ranger's half brother Courageous Hero best of the rest.
2. BLACKWOOD - 1. REGAL GLEAM - 3. BLACK CUBAN
SUGGESTED BET - 2. BLACKWOOD $100
Comments
I'd love to put "that old cat" Gladstone on top but I just can't catch him, every time I back him to win he runs second. Tower of Lonhro bucked the odds last start and carried the 61.5kg to victory with relative ease. With in-form apprentice Jordan Turner aboard he carries that again and is looking for 4 on the bounce. $4.40 eachway is a big price in a field that lacks depth. Gladstone is a wallet burner from way back and could well go down as favourite for a sixth time. Ask Me Nicely was weighted to win last start and definitely should have gone close, Jake Casey found Bangkok type traffic and couldn't get clear, meets rivals much worse at the weights and O'Donnell is aboard Ram Jam, tough to tip him on top.
1. TOWER OF LONHRO - 3. GLADSTONE - 2. ASK ME NICELY (NZ)
SUGGESTED BET - 1. TOWER OF LONHRO $50 x $50
I am certainly no where near the Captain of Fashion but I'll be on-course on Saturday trying to look sharp in my suitpants and colourful spotted long sleever however hoping Fashion Princess can show me how it's done by winning the 70+ mile. Worked home strongly first-up when given a rare average ride by Lucy Warwick and then second-up couldn't quite reel in Brother Patrick. Has beaten stablemate Dark Delight home on two occasions previously and this should make it three. Ran Real Love to within 2 lengths last preparation and with 55kg looks hard to stop. Low Tide put on an exhibition at Kalgoorlie, he looks the testing material. Keysbrook was good first-up at a mile and should strip a lot fitter, form behind Delicacy in the Listed and Group 3 year old events is strong but I can't tip a $2.70 favourite with just 1 win from 16 starts.
2. FASHION PRINCESS (NZ) - 3. LOW TIDE - 5. KEYSBROOK
More than happy to tip a Jordy Turner race to race treble: Tower of Lonhro into Fashion Princess into First Among Equals. The 3 premier stables of WA racing Durrant, Williams and Miller have put their faith in the Aquinas youngster and I'm pulling the J.Turner bandwagon. First Among Equals is shooting for 5 straight victories and with the claim carries a mere 58.5. Beat Malibu Style over 1200m by only a short head two starts back but meets him 4.5kg better at the weights. Has an electric turn of foot and in my speed map sits around 7th with cover, can peel to the outside without any traffic issues and burn them. Malibu Style is the danger, 60kg is the worry but the Pontiff is the best so it evens out. Secret Nova has never finished further back than second from her 6 starts but this is tough. Makes my early quaddie: 2 / 1,3 / 2,3,4,5,6,7 / 1,3 - $24 = 100%
1. FIRST AMONG EQUALS - 3. MALIBU STYLE - 6. SECRET NOVA
SUGGESTED BET - 1. FIRST AMONG EQUALS $50 x $50
Very hard to tip against Top Show in this 3 year old 1400m event. She settled a mile off them first-up over 1400 and charged to the line beaten a neck by North Ridge. Meets that galloper 4.5kg better at the weights and drawn barrier 1 should get the softest of runs along the fence probably three back the rails with Liberty's Gem laeding and Mosseratti dropping leaders back. Lucy can either spot a run through traffic or more likely ease out around heels to the outside. Liberty's Gem had excuses last start with mucus and an ulcer causing issues, is much better than that and I would expect punters to forgive the run and take $4. Jordan Turner could be having the time of his life by race 5 so I'd follow the money if (when) it comes. North Ridge rises 5kg on his last start victory but Harvey-Kersley are an awesome combination.
4. TOP SHOW - 1. LIBERTY'S GEM - 3. NORTH RIDGE
At $9 I am willing to forgive the last start effort of Bradford Badboy and stay aboard. Run behind in form galloper The Dankster was sensational, charged to the line and missed by a short neck after being 16th and last rounding the home corner. Last start was highly disappointing but didn't settle in running. Drops back to 1400m which looks an ideal distance on a weeks back-up and at the eachway price I'll stick with him. Bjorn to Love is yet to hit his straps this preparation, made solid late ground in a leader dominated race behind Wink and a Nod and with you guessed it, Jordan Turner aboard is value at the 10s on offer. I am confident that Wombie's Legacy can find the fence and lead with ease, that makes $5 the place very juicy.
9. BRADFORD BADBOY - 7. BJORN TO LOVE - 2. WOMBIE'S LEGACY
SUGGESTED BET - 9. BRADFORD BADBOY $10 x $40
Nightingale Road was run off her feet first-up behind Hey Bro but so were Flying Zoe and Lord Balthazar, second-up she savaged the line and couldn't quite reel in talented Miller sprinter First Among Equals. From barrier 2 she can settle a little closer to the leaders in a race which doesn't have quite as much electric top end speed as the Aerozine/Regal Romp race did first-up and from there she should be hard to hold out. Flying Zoe is a horse I always pictured as better over 1200m but Durrant is the king and she should get a lovely run from barrier 5 and she is sure to win one soon. Lord Balthazar is a noted non-winner but has a better than 50% places strike rate at this Track and Distance so $3.80 the place is an attractive proposition.
2. NIGHTINGALE ROAD - 13. FLYING ZOE - 1. LORD BALTHAZAR
Happy to stick with Chloe Azzopardi and Rebel King, while he is most noted as a 1000m horse I believe he can stretch out this campaign and potentially show a career beyond 1200m in the future. Sat 3 deep throughout last start and still won by an effortless 2.3 lengths, rises 1.5kg on that run but only carries 53.5, a feather weight. He doesn't have to lead but with Blacksmith not in the field and only Longma really anticipated to go forwards the McAuliffe team may be looking to sit in the breeze outside the leader. From there they control the race and should prove too good. Settle Strada had a throat operation after a dissappointing preparation but has proven with his two runs back this campaign that he is over all his issues and a genuine threat. 8 starts over 1200m at Belmont for 5 wins, $13 is a big price and I'll have a fair chunk of the $3.50 to place in my pocket. Windswept is better than his first-up run and should be a big improver. Makes my quaddie: 1,4 / fld / 1,2,13 / 5 - $66 = 100%
5. REBEL KING - 3. SETTLE STRADA - 12. WINDSWEPT
SUGGESTED BET - 5. REBEL KING $100
Malibu won with the Bars last start ?
young turner could win 5...on paper.. :-B
I like settle strada in the last.
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