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Ascot Preview, 24th Oct 2015
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Savanna Home Loans Plate - Scott Embry
Jordan Turner and Darren McAuliffe should reap the rewards of intelligent training in the opening event at Ascot on Saturday. Scratched from the Belgravia to contest a substantially easier event. I think she will find the fence from barrier 5, control the race and win it. When Turner releases the breaks she should already have a length or two head start on the main rivals and from there we know how hard she fights to the line. I see High Tea as the main danger and a very backable $8 in my opinion. Debut effort down the Pinjarra straight was excellent and then ran 2nd to Hot Goods, form which is hard to argue with. For third I've thrown in Pushin' Shapes would should have deriven benefit from the first-up hitout. I think Universal Law is one of the lay's of the day and would be genuinely surprised to see him salute.
3. MILITARY REIGN - 9. HIGH TEA - 1. PUSHIN' SHAPES
SUGGESTED BET - 3. MILITARY REIGN $50 x $50
Jordan Turner and Darren McAuliffe should reap the rewards of intelligent training in the opening event at Ascot on Saturday. Scratched from the Belgravia to contest a substantially easier event. I think she will find the fence from barrier 5, control the race and win it. When Turner releases the breaks she should already have a length or two head start on the main rivals and from there we know how hard she fights to the line. I see High Tea as the main danger and a very backable $8 in my opinion. Debut effort down the Pinjarra straight was excellent and then ran 2nd to Hot Goods, form which is hard to argue with. For third I've thrown in Pushin' Shapes would should have deriven benefit from the first-up hitout. I think Universal Law is one of the lay's of the day and would be genuinely surprised to see him salute.
3. MILITARY REIGN - 9. HIGH TEA - 1. PUSHIN' SHAPES
SUGGESTED BET - 3. MILITARY REIGN $50 x $50
Comments
Not a race I'll be betting in. The majority of investments will be centered around both Mississippian and Profit Street, two gallopers one would expect will settle worse than midfield. Ascot is typically leader bias, especailly early in the day and that could make them both vulnerable. Django is one who can spring the gates so for value tipping I'll throw him on top. The other two to fill the minors in the trifecta but definitely a race I'll be avoiding. Hopefully PerthTurfTalk horse Essayez can show glimpses of her 2 year old form and bounce back here.
5. DJANGO - 7. MISSISSIPPIAN - 8. PROFIT STREET
Delicacy returns first-up as a 4 year old and bumps into Winterbottom winner Magnifisio. They are probably the two classiest mares in the state and this should be a cracking contest. Beyond them Dawn Approach could find the fence and roll along and from there, despite conceeding the mares 2kg will be very hard to get past for Ikenushi and team Sigley. They look the obvious 3 and will almost certainly run the trifecta, but the question is, in what order?..Delicacy has been trialling sensationally for her return but I am very, very wary of barrier 1 and getting caught behind Dawn Approach. For that reason alone I'll put her back to third and have the Sigley pair on top. Purely from a value perspective and the fact he will lead I'm going with Dawn Approach to surprise the more favoured pair.
1. DAWN APPROACH - 5. MAGNIFISIO - 4. DELICACY
W.Pike back into the saddle simply sees Special Delivery winning in my opinion. Got an absolute mile out of his ground for Johnson-Porter last start and was low flying over the final 100m but simply couldn't bridge the gap. Pike won't let that happen and I have a big opinion of this gelding. I think he wins and is the best bet on the card, even at the shorts. I think the big improver back to Ascot will be Wroughted. $21 is a big price for a horse who has won 4 times at the track and comes off a completely luckless crack at the Hannans. Thunderclap Newman excels at Ascot and should be right there when the whips are cracking.
7. SPECIAL DELIVERY - 3. WROUGHTED - 5. THUNDERCLAP NEWMAN
SUGGESTED BET - 7. SPECIAL DELIVERY $100
To throw in a heinous Harry Potter reference, "No, No; Definitely Not!" springs to mind when you try and analyse this stayers event. The $4 favourite in Who's To Blame won its first race since a March 2014 Narrogin 1700m event and rises 5kg in the weights and is yet to notch a victory at Ascot after 10 attempts. I'll be staying well clear of the favourite here. Going with the inform Maley stable and former Peters horse Success Story. Steve Parnham should give him a lovely soft run in behind the speed and at $11 is much better value than a fair few in my opinion. Beyond that I'm throwing in Daneclicked to improve back to 60+ grade for the first time in over a year and back to Ascot where he has been successful in the past. Should find the fence and not have to deal with a lot of pressure, could give cheek. Military Service is another who could slide forward and settle in a prominent position.
6. SUCCESS STORY - 1. DANECLICKED - 2. MILITARY SERVICE
Following the recent formula of WA racing, Pike + Peters = $$ it is very hard to see why Neverland couldn't win first-up and launch a summer carnival attack on the mares series. I have always had huge wraps for the daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. I was tipping her on here all throughout the 3 year old season to knock off Delicacy but Delicacy just kept getting better and better. Hopefully after a decent spell she can return to the track and show us her very best. Keeping a close eye on her this preparation because I think she is simply a class above these. Hard to ignore the first-up effort of Bomber Bay. Personally I thought the trial was woeful and couldn't have had her in the top 5 but she proved any doubters wrong. Dark Musket will improve as the distances increase but has genuine claims. Expecting sharp improvement back at Ascot from Palace Intruder.
8. NEVERLAND - 10. BOMBER BAY - 5. DARK MUSKET
SUGGESTED BET - 8. NEVERLAND $50 x $50
From all reports it could be an exact replica of the Fitzpatrick Plate where Dream Lifter was simply too good fresh and blew them to pieces. Slight query being trained down in Albany and needing to make the trek to the races and also the quality of opposition he put away in his trial but I do think that he will be primed for this first-up assignment and graduate out of this grade. Winner of 5 from 13 and 4 of those coming at 1200m he looks mighty hard to beat for Jordy Turner. The value runner in the race is probably Flying Roar, he is a previous first-up winner and could easily pounce on the lead from a gun barrier. Hobart Jones is a quality gelding and with the services of W.Pike must make an appearance in all quaddies and exotics.
1. DREAM LIFTER - 5. FLYING ROAR - 8. HOBART JONES
SUGGESTED BET - 1. DREAM LIFTER $35 x $35
Putting Dabang on top in the final event at around the $26 quote and hoping the little mare can give trainer Brian Kersley his first victory for Loloma Farms since taking over from Shane Quilty. Dabang was desperately unlucky last start when knocked around Jack Watts in a contest and with an excellent record over 1800m of 2 wins and 3 minors from 8 starts as well as 8 top 3 finishes at Ascot over her career I think that she can win this and blowout the quaddie. Emma Stent is a noted front running apprentice and her 3kg claim gets Dabang down to 55kg, she should find the fence from barrier 8 with only potentially the roughie Pollonize to get past in order to lead. From there I am quite keen on her chances at a big price. Massive question marks still over Illuminate who will jump with one hoof in the Swan River. Very happy to take Illuminated on and leave him out altogether. Military Ruler will hopefully take a sit on Dabang and get a lovely tow into the race. While The Forgotten One is an up and comer from the Durrant yard but is 5 weeks between runs, a concern.
3. DABANG - 4. MILITARY RULER - 7. THE FORGOTTEN ONE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. DABANG $10 x $20
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Jockeys @jasonbrown702 and Troy Turner galloped horses on the @PerthRacing Ascot track this morning and reported the surface to be excellent.
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Returned $30
RIO likes this post.
you are obviously thinking the same as me.......
you could see six miles out that it was not going to win, and you could see 7 miles out, that he was not going to be put it in a winning possy.
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:-O well oil beef hooked =))