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Ascot Preview, 2nd Jan 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Free Wi-fi Available Plate - Scott Embry
Very hard to see Vega Magic getting rolled here. His past two have been super impressive and while he probably meets his most talented opponent yet in Scales of Justice he does look almost the best bet on the card. Those two should be far too strong for rivals and gap the field. Thinking that Vega Magic will lead with Scales of Justice probably positioned up outside him and the sparks to fly from the bend. Vega Magic should be too good and prevail in an exciting start to the card. Airlie Sun probably best of the chasers and goes in for third. Hoping for around the $1.60 mark for Vega Magic and I'd be happy enough taking those odds on what is probably the most promising young galloper outside the Bob Peters Empire.
1. VEGA MAGIC - 2. SCALES OF JUSTICE - 3. AIRLIE SUN
SUGGESTED BET - 1. VEGA MAGIC $100
Very hard to see Vega Magic getting rolled here. His past two have been super impressive and while he probably meets his most talented opponent yet in Scales of Justice he does look almost the best bet on the card. Those two should be far too strong for rivals and gap the field. Thinking that Vega Magic will lead with Scales of Justice probably positioned up outside him and the sparks to fly from the bend. Vega Magic should be too good and prevail in an exciting start to the card. Airlie Sun probably best of the chasers and goes in for third. Hoping for around the $1.60 mark for Vega Magic and I'd be happy enough taking those odds on what is probably the most promising young galloper outside the Bob Peters Empire.
1. VEGA MAGIC - 2. SCALES OF JUSTICE - 3. AIRLIE SUN
SUGGESTED BET - 1. VEGA MAGIC $100
Comments
Jordan likes this post.
Stocks is a another very nice horse from the Sean Casey yard and gives Jake a crack at an early double. Beat Cosmic Storm last start and I have her marked as the best on the card in the La Trice later on so the form lines are sensational and he hasn't put a foot wrong this entire preparation. Hard to believe in October he went round in a 1300m Northam Maiden and is now a rapidly rising 80 rater. Looks mighty hard to beat and probably a very popular short priced favourite but I'm willing to look outside and put Flying Roar on top. I was super impressed by his last start effort and think the 1500m is right up his alley. Expecting a much jucier eachway price and given a soft run up along the fence I really think he can threaten the more favoured Stocks. For mine he is a places lock and that's the way I'll be playing. Stocks hardest to beat and deserving favourite with W.Pike in the cerise and white likely to fill a hole in the trifecta.
3. FLYING ROAR - 1. STOCKS - 7. ANTIQUE DREAM
SUGGESTED BET - 3. FLYING ROAR $10 x $90
Tipping Hobart Jones to turn the tables on Vengabus here with a 2kg weight swing. Small field should suit and while I would obviously like to have seen W.Pike in the saddle Lucy does ride him well and he should be able to bounce back and give this a genuine shake. Not given any favours in running last start I thought the effort was sound and this does look a nice winnable race for him. Vengabus got away with murder out in front last start but is unlikely to get it quite so luxurious this time with Lenience expected to sit outside him. Hobart Jones should be about midfield, hopefully with cover, and be able to peel to the outside and assuming the track isn't horribly leader bias again then he should give a good account. Thateldo first-up is always a chance. Coming back from a profitless campaign I'm sure Jimmy Taylor will have him primed. Carry The Nation can bob up from time to time and goes in as the third selection.
5. HOBART JONES - 7. THATELDO - 1. CARRY THE NATION
For a 66+ 2200m race this is a pretty decent little field assembled. There are numerous genuine winning chances and not a lot of horses you can rule out. Don'tgetcaught was severly hampered when running a fast finishing third to Savanarola and then finished alongside Neverland, beating home a number of Perth Cup runners in Dust Me Off, Fulgur and even Properantes. Going on those two efforts Jerry Noske should go very close to winning this aboard Don'tgetcaught. Entrechat was in the same race behind Savanarola and has since gone on to record a very impressive provincial win. Pike sticks and the Street Cry mare is bred to eat up the ground. Looks a highly promising type. Not giving up on Galaxy Price as he gets out to a much more suitable distance. Shinta Mani was never a hope in the Savanarola race after getting caught behind tiring runners and can easily bounce back to the winners enclosure. Saxon Saxoff is capable of running them along and stealing the race, as is Cougar Express. The Pontiff goes onto Ram Jam who looks just about ready to produce something closer to his Albany Cup minor placing. The race is a cracker compared to your normal 66+ grind.
5. DON'TGETCAUGHT - 9. ENTRECHAT - 1. GALAXY PRINCE
Lunar Eclipse has taken it to a new level his past two starts and really since joining the Danny Morton stable this preparation. Back to back wins at 1500m he looks perfectly placed to take on 1800 for the first time. With the electric turn of foot he is showing and the picture perfect barrier draw as long as he can settle he should be winning. Sireeze is a perennial place getter and another places multi lock. Always around the place but never winning. Fashion Princess drops in grade and has obviously gone this way and not the La Trice to avoid running into stable mates Ideal Image and Cosmic Storm. After the claim for CJP she looks well weighted to give this a real shake. Beyond those three last start surprise leader and winner Thunderclap Newman and Our Finest Moment look like the ones to include in novelty bets.
4. LUNAR ECLIPSE - 1. SIREEZE - 2. FASHION PRINCESS (NZ)
SUGGESTED BET - 4. LUNAR ECLIPSE $50 x $50
Cosmic Storm is my best bet of the day and I really think the 4 year old Street Sense mare is a good thing and will go onto bigger and better things in the coming years. Her win last start over a finally suitable distance was nothing short of emphatic. When Pike pulled the trigger he left the rest of the field lined in chalk, dead. They had absolutely no chance at all of catching her and I think we can expect similar here. For mine she is a class above and will win. Coupling her and Vega Magic in a double will be short and sweet, put in - take out. Ideal Image was arguably a good thing beaten last start. All honours to the winner Tarquinn Shadow, but I think many will agree if Ideal Image got the right runs at the right time she would have made it a different result. Putting her in as the hardest to beat and minor end of a popular Peters exacta. Dancing Express as a bit of value to the trifectas, one who should relish a step up to 1800 and will be doing her best work late off the back of the speed.
3. COSMIC STORM - 1. IDEAL IMAGE - 7. DANCING EXPRESS
SUGGESTED BET - 3. COSMIC STORM $100
Rebel King is a short course specialist. He flys over 1000m and while I'm sure DMac will be looking to extend him over further this preparation, even to a mile potentially, he will always be most noted as a sprinter. Drawn beautifully for Chris Parnham who has his first ride aboard the Universal Ruler flag bearer he will prove very hard to hold out over the concluding stages, especailly if he can settle in the first few in running. This race oozese quality and with top end speed from the electric mare Sheidel and turbo horses like Detection, Benito and Lucky Street all likely to engage in an early tussle for the lead it should set things up quite nicely for the powerful finish of Silverstream who found an abundance of trouble last start after drifting from $1.20 out to $1.90 and then failing to finish off the race as we have come to expect from her. Likely to bounce back quickly and is a definite winning chance. First Among Equals is a very handy galloper and Simon Miller does always jag one on the big days #lookatme. Boom 3 year old Lucky Street will be highly competitive as always and you can never rule out Rock Magic fresh. Quality dash for cash and one I'll be eagerly viewing without an investment.
13. REBEL KING - 14. SILVERSTREAM - 8. FIRST AMONG EQUALS
The 2016 edition of the Perth Cup, or Peters Cup as I've coined looks set to be run ultimately between the highly talented 4 year old Bob Peters pairing of Delicacy, 2014/15 3 year old of the year and Neverland, daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. Both regally bred mares are more than capable of matching it with the best in the country and look set to fight out the finish in a sea of cerise and white. I went to the barrier draw at Crown on Tuesday night and when interviewed Bob Peters was of the opinion that over 2400m 1kg was worth about 2 lengths so by his thinking Delicacy would need to be 10 lengths better than Neverland to win. After drawing a fairly awkward gate in barrier 1 and Neverland likely to come into 7 after the scratchings of emergencies coupled with the fact W.Pike has gone with Neverland I'm willing to go against the favourite and put the heavily supported Neverland on top. I've spent 12 months on this preview putting Neverland on top of Delicacy and getting burnt so maybe it is finally time to reap the rewards. Bedamijo is one of the very few on-pacers and from a delicious gate will position up perfectly behind Dashing Dan and Kirov Boy when they eventually take off after sitting 3 and 4 deep for the first 500m. I'm confident Bedamijo will look the winner at the 600 so definitely worthy of an eachway investment. Properantes' A.T.A run was better than it reads on paper after sitting deep throughout and is a genuine threat. Respondent hasn't won for a long time and has many a critic on this site but the weight relief he gets down to the 54kg minimum shouldn't be underestimated and I think he is a live chance. My horse Savanarola was dealt a bitter blow by fellow owner Andrew Green after he drew us barrier 18 of 20. "You had one job, cheers mate".
11. NEVERLAND - 1. DELICACY - 5. BEDAMIJO
Sticks, RIO, Tivers, lame likes this post.
In the very first "Get Out Stakes" of 2016 I'm hoping that Heavy Set is not a description for the girl on my arm come race 9 but infact the name of the final winner. Having come back from career threatening surgery the 8 year old Shamardal gelding is racing extremely well and I think he can turn the tables on Express Dancer, Fuld's Bet, Marchand and Mr Motown who all beat him home last start. 1100m is much more to his liking than 1000m and in a very even race I think he can steal the chocolates in the last at odds. Still not completely sold on Express Dancer and even though he won last start he never went around a single horse and was cutting down a rapidly tiring leader who was sporting the dreaded bar plates. Undeniably talented but not one I'd be jumping into at the likely short odds. Expecting a hot top end speed with the likely pace setters in Onadowntowntrain and Fuld's Bet both drawn towards the outside. Add in Hurricane Hound who can show early dash as well as Calabria Joe I'm quietly confident a swooper will win. So naturally alongside Heavy Set and Express Dancer goes Volkoff whose first-up victory was spectacular coming from well off the pace to win convincingly. Max Almighty will win one early in his Adam Durrant career and must be included. Thinking the winner will come from one of those 4 and will play them as my final leg of my second 2016 quaddie because everyone knows I'll be having a nibble at Bunbury on January 1st. Happy, healthy and safe new year to all.
4. HEAVY SET - 11. VOLKOFF - 10. MAX ALMIGHTY
Gray, Gilgamesh likes this post.
I always thought 1k to 1 length
RIO likes this post.
Impost of weight scaled as distances increased - however the way the spread of weights is compressed these days it does not seem to have as much of a bearing on race results as in years gone by IMHO
rooboy, Thoroly_Bread, Tucool likes this post.
But 1kg as 2 lengths, over same distance, same track conditions, same grade of horse..So a few if's and butts
FreoHitman likes this post.
RIO likes this post.
Seems to me that as a horse reached close to it's maximum effort, weight would have more bearing on the result.
So saying 1kg = 2 len is too simplistic. I would suggest 1kg over 1000M would be less than 1/2 len, 1kg over 2000M 3/4 len, 2400M 1 1/2 len and over 2 miles 2 len plus.
The gross weight of the horse would also have a lot to do with mass at a terminal speed. The heavier you are, once you get to a terminal velocity, the harder it is to get past with less mass, as the larger animal takes longer to stop.
Dead weight verse free moving weight
RIO, Thoroly_Bread, oldhendo, notapunta likes this post.
trustygusty likes this post.
:-O :-O
WTF WHY is not the question. HOW is this horse still running on a racecourse. Owners must really hate there money.
Chelsea, RIO, thefalcon likes this post.
Since then though, he's had that many nags with duckeggs in their numerical form you'd want to give it away. Plus he seems to persist with animals like Wakaha Kid for far too long.
Surely the owners could use the same amount of money to turn them over more often to try to snare something reasonable?
jum likes this post.
http://www.rwwa.com.au/cris/horse.aspx?horse=59823&max=250#top
jum likes this post.
R2 #3 Flying Roar
R6 #11 Dendee
R7 #2 Sheidel
R9 #11 Volkoff
Quaddie
3.4.11
2.8.10
1.10.11
1.8.11
Dark sunnies on - heading up for the day B-)
rooboy likes this post.
The Beer on ice
The bets are on
Sky is pumping
If I'm going to lose a fortune I might as well be comfortable!
Vega Magic
Stocks
Lenience
Entrechat
Fashion Princess
Cosmic Storm
Rebel King
Delicacy
Max Almighty
Best of luck, it's warming up now!!!
SLIPPERGOLDEN, hash, Gilgamesh, Wizard, Darrbs, notapunta likes this post.
H-BOMBER, Chris likes this post.
FreoHitman likes this post.
Wizard, Aussiereds72 likes this post.