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Ascot Preview, 9th Apr 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
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fantastically well this prep and the step to 1800m is ideal and logical. $2.70.
Race
6 Showy Chloe – Back to 1400m for the 3yo, she is attacking the line strongly
and has 54kg here. $3.50
And a couple of roughies
Race 1 Electric City – Hate 2yo betting, but theres some value in a big
field. Good win last start after siting close to the speed and running away
from a moderate field. Back to the 1000m they will sit close and sprint. $10.00
Race
6 Tame Impala – Not the worst. Was a bit unlucky last Sunday in an
easier race and with the right run can figure in the placings. Must go into the
quaddie. $91.00.
Cheers to PUNTA for the excellent prices as usual. Need to get some back after last weeks blow out
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Best bets
Dainty Tess barrier 1 Willie Pike
Man Booker race 3 ideal first up
Go to Stonemotherless after race 3
BURROWS (WA)
Ascot Race 7 – #10 Royal Supreme
Burrows Says: “Lacks acceleration in city class events. Is under the odds due to William Pike booking and I can’t see it finishing over the top of them. Ripper Rio is a progressive horse that looks the one to beat.”
PETER MCCORMACK (WA)
Ascot Race 4 – #6 Pounamu
McCormack Says: “Meets a few horses on the rise here and needs to show significant improvement to win this. Blinkers on is a plus but I’m confident he’s a length or two short of what’s required to win. Three narrow defeats in as many starts suggests as much. 7/4 in early betting is no value.”
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Not anymore!
I do recall an article about Man Booker and Hazzabeel targeting the upcoming WFA program. Change of plans?
Even if I had a free bet to throw at this race I wouldn't have any idea at all where to look. Definitely of the opinion that Dainty Tess is way unders at $2.50 drawn the inside in a 2 year olds race after only narrowly beating Kimbo's Girl who flopped badly the following week. Throwing up Pick Up Line as a value selection. I quite liked his first-up run when he sat outside the lead on a day which heavily favoured run-on type horses. Thought he battled on really well in the conditions and has the necessary gate speed to zip across and potentially sit outside the lead again. Wouldn't be tempted to back him at anything under 40s but you may well get that price by the jump. Belter has trialled well and should get a lovely run from barrier 4. Block and Tackle caught the eye with his trial effort, probably needs further than 1000m to show his best. Not a race I'll get involved in at all, except maybe laying Dainty Tess on betfair.
3. PICK UP LINE - 4. BELTER - 5. BLOCK AND TACKLE
Everything points to Wink and a Nod here as probably the best bet on the card. She flogged these same rivals two weeks ago on a wet track when backed off the charts and meets them on the exact same weight terms. There is a possibility of rain again here and she'll be mighty hard to beat. I had my concerns last week that she would flop dropping back from 1500 to 1200 and looks far better suited over a mile. May have just lost a touch of sharpness in her older age and I think a mile is now her pet distance. She'll settle midfield and run over the top of them I'd say. Battle Hero has put in two very servicable runs this preparation but certainly isn't weight to win this race having to again conceed 2kg to Wink and a Nod. Terror Force is the only new addition to those who contested the Grandstand Cup and is a bit hit and miss. Only carries 0.5kg less than Wink and a Nod and I can't see him being able to go punch for punch with a mare of her class and quality.
4. WINK AND A NOD - 3. BATTLE HERO - 5. TERROR FORCE
SUGGESTED BET - 4. WINK AND A NOD $100
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Scrappy little race here with only 8 in the field and a muddling bunch of speedsters and swoopers. I've ended up popping Dawn Approach on top, not with any confidence at all. This is not a race I'll be getting invested in and if I was to have a play in the race it would be to Lay Man Booker who I think will struggle at this distance in this type of company. Dawn Approach doesn't have the greatest of first-up records but looks relatively well weighted with only 58.5 after the claim for Randy Tan. Should account for most of these on class alone and could get a handy run midfield. Not a whole lot between the Miller pair Ron's Call and War Prince but if I was pressed to split them I'd be in the War Prince corner. Zuccheros flopped badly first-up but is a bleeder so there's always excuses around. He can be the sharp improver second-up ridden cold for one last crack at them. Petrol Power is chipping away towards another victory but does lack that killer blow. Longma looks out-gunned on his two runs to date while New Time's rating certain catches up with him in this class.
1. DAWN APPROACH - 3. WAR PRINCE - 6. ZUCCHEROS
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Not often in WA can we get excited by any racing beyond a mile so to see a quality field of clashing form-lines contest an 1800m event I'm pretty pumped. It is well documented that Pounamu will go for a spell after this run and his preparation has been excellent since joining the Mathews stable from NSW. Two starts ago hit the front very early in the straight when Carberry prematurely pulled the trigger and was nailed on the line by Star Exhibit. He meets that galloper 3kg better at the weights for being beaten a nose and should go close again. Star Exhibit is an exciting type and is certainly in the right stable to be contesting races of this distance and beyond. Pike is yet to even use the whip on him this campaign so it'll be interesting to see how he responds. Illuminated was run off his feet first-up as expected and steps straight up to a middle distance. He will improve sharply here and looks the only and logical leader in this event. Noske will be looking to find the fence and steal a few cheap sectionals, don't disregard him.
6. POUNAMU - 9. STAR EXHIBIT - 5. ILLUMINATED
I was pretty keen to Hop Off Lite 'N' In My Veins first-up in the Raconteur after being aboard him at his first two career victories. I'm jumping straight back aboard here and labelling him, alongside Wink and a Nod as the best on the card. There was a fair bit of mail around suggesting he was underdone first-up and not working at his brilliant best so I'm hoping that second-up he'll be naturally fitter and should safely account for this field. Only carries 57.5 after the claim for Randy Randy and considering he was shuffled back and 3 wide on a soft7 track from the 600 first-up from a spell without a trial I think he'll fly second-up and zap this lot. Not a whole lot of easier options for him with his rating and this field doesn't represent anywhere near the best WA has to offer. Cubit and Cundy ran a very cheeky race at almost 200-1 and after leading battled on well. Hard to see him holding out Lite 'N' In My Veins this time and with Headlander Boy in the race I doubt he'll be leading again. Irish Brother was impressive in his Bunbury maiden win and the majority of this field are no better than what he beat.
1. LITE'N IN MY VEINS - 2. CUBITT AND CUNDY - 7. IRISH BROTHER
SUGGESTED BET - 1. LITE'N IN MY VEINS $100
Looks like a 2 horse race between Showy Chloe and Lunar Eclipse here but for the sake of safety I've also included 'that old chestnut' Sujet. Putting Showy Chloe on top and think that the 3 year old goes very close against the older gallopers. Carries a luxury weight of 54kg for a filly of her credentials and drawn in barrier 4 with W.Pike in the saddle deserves favouritism. Should get the softest of runs up on speed and Pike can elect to take a sit or lead if he so chooses. From there she's the one to run down and should give a very genuine sight. Lunar Eclipse has won 3 of his last 4 and last start was forced to go up along the wrong part of the track to win. Every single horse on that rainy day wanted to be atleast 3 or 4 horses off the fence and when confronted with a road block Lucy Warwick took Lunar Eclipse back to the inside rail and he won against the pattern of the day. Including the enigmatic Sujet in my top 3 and quaddie. He is a dead set head case, but his two runs so far this prep have been electric. 1400m may be his distance these days and I'll be including him here.
10. SHOWY CHLOE - 3. LUNAR ECLIPSE - 1. SUJET
Winza Moment just keeps opening at ridiculous prices, just keeps kicking and just keeps winning recently. Has had 6 runs so far this preparation for 2 wins, 3 seconds and a third. It's hard not to love a horse who works to the lead almost every start, looks gone at the top of the home straight and just keeps finding all the way to the line. Last two starts Winza Moment has opened around the $8 mark and closed closer to $4. Should get an eachway price again and if you've been aboard the last few, like I have, then there's no reason at all why you should jump ship. Ripper Rio was backed as if unbeatable first-up from about $2.20 into $1.60 and then got well out of his ground and couldn't reel in the leader. Second-up was again well commissioned at short odds and won easily. The Loloma Farms-Kersley-Parnham combination is bagging winners and I think Ripper Rio will show he is up to this class. Mr Mankini is one who may get under the radar and pay ridiculous overs. Has failed to see out the trip over 2100 and 1800m his past two but his run three starts back when wide throughout behind North Ridge, Muskets At Dawn and Outlaw Pete was sensational.
1. WINZA MOMENT - 11. RIPPER RIO - 7. MR MANKINI
2. CARALABEK - 1. THE LADIES CHOICE - 4. SLICK TALKER
SUGGESTED BET - 2. CARALABEK
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:-O Railway
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Heading out there?
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