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Belmont Preview, 8th Jul 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Rentokil Initial Plate - Scott Embry
Sean Casey has labelled Veuve De Vega a work in progress and we certainly saw those progressions over the last two starts when he pushed highly talented JT Warwick filly Elegant Blast all the way to the line and then lead from start to finish thumping rivals in a mirrored display much akin to stablemate Vega Magic. Stepping back up to 1300m looks ideal and he screams out as the one to beat. I couldn't find anything much in this line-up to test him so happy enough to tip him on top and anticipate a very short quote. Jazari was fairly impressive on debut, albeit in a fairly moderate mid-week maiden event. I have a bit of time for the winner Sweet Ora so I think Jazari can measure up to the majority of these. Into the numbers for second and as the main danger. What's Up Doc can improve sharply allowed to find the fence and roll. Could bob up at cricket score odds and run a cheeky place. Favourite punters lick their lips in the first.
1. VEUVE DE VEGA - 6. JAZARI - 4. WHAT'S UP DOC
SUGGESTED BET - 1. VEUVE DE VEGA $100
Sean Casey has labelled Veuve De Vega a work in progress and we certainly saw those progressions over the last two starts when he pushed highly talented JT Warwick filly Elegant Blast all the way to the line and then lead from start to finish thumping rivals in a mirrored display much akin to stablemate Vega Magic. Stepping back up to 1300m looks ideal and he screams out as the one to beat. I couldn't find anything much in this line-up to test him so happy enough to tip him on top and anticipate a very short quote. Jazari was fairly impressive on debut, albeit in a fairly moderate mid-week maiden event. I have a bit of time for the winner Sweet Ora so I think Jazari can measure up to the majority of these. Into the numbers for second and as the main danger. What's Up Doc can improve sharply allowed to find the fence and roll. Could bob up at cricket score odds and run a cheeky place. Favourite punters lick their lips in the first.
1. VEUVE DE VEGA - 6. JAZARI - 4. WHAT'S UP DOC
SUGGESTED BET - 1. VEUVE DE VEGA $100
+1 -1
FreoHitman likes this post.
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RIO likes this post.
I have Properantes marked as the Best Bet on the card and an absolute special. Very, very keen on the Webster trained 4 year old for in-form apprentice Jordan Turner. Carries only 57kg after the claim and for a horse of this calibre, dropping back to this grade I think he will just win. Major questionmark over Shinta Mani dropping back to a mile effectively for a fitness run one would imagine with no staying races programmed over the next fortnight as documented by The Diva in a thread earlier this week. Shinta Mani loves this track and won over a mile first-up this preparation and is a mare on the rise, however, dropping back to this distance after consistent staying efforts is not to my liking and I'll be leaving her out of the top 3. Don'tgetcaught was tipped by a number of astute punters after an impressive trial victory but certainly didn't deliver anywhere near his best. Will improve as the distances stretch. Zuboyne is a rising 12 year old tackling the 78+ grade for the first time in his longlived career at start number 113. An evergreen marvel probably in career best form, include at odds.
1. PROPERANTES - 5. DON'TGETCAUGHT - 9. ZUBOYNE
SUGGESTED BET - 1. PROPERANTES $100
Jordan, hash likes this post.
Tony Greig once described a Shane Warne delivery as a 'ripsnorter' and that's the adjective I'll adopt to describe this race. It oozses quality, there are a number of rapidly rising gallopers in this field with the race headlined by the mouthwatering clash of Socially Unique and Material Man. 72+ events don't get much better than this and I can't wait to kick back on the boat and watch it with a beer or six. Material Man has been ultra impressive at every single start and flicking back through threads at his Narrogin debut I said "best bet, will win Saturday races". Hard to believe $3 was bet that day and I'll stick to my firm belief that he is a Saturday horse, however, runs into a very strong field here and with best mate Lucy Warwick suspended has a few things against him. Hard to go past the back to back victories of Socially Unique and that's the way I'm tipping. Just from a game Material Man who is probably looking for a mile to 2000m now. It's It should give a strong sight on pace with the Pontiff engaged. Cracking viewing race, it has this bloke excited.
2. SOCIALLY UNIQUE - 10. MATERIAL MAN - 4. IT'S IT
Clever call by Richie Bell last start when State Solicitor had the race 'won beyond a reasonable doubt' and I'd expect Darren will probably have a similar legal pun lined up because on paper State Solicitor looks very hard to beat again. This is a much tougher field than his last start victory but he is yet to be tested this preparation and is a horse going places. Won by 3.25 lengths last start but could have easily been 6 or 7 if pushed out. Can't see him winning by quite that margin here but nevertheless hard to see him being rolled. 3 year old Patrimonio is all class but bumps into an equally talented youngster. He should have most of the others covered on class alone and is a lock for the trifecta. Tranquilla Sunrise is probably the logical danger to the favourite. Jumps, runs and keeps kicking. Hard to believe we are seeing Tranquilla Sunrise racing in Saturday grade, gunning for four straight wins and in with legitimate claims but since joining the stables of Robin Elliot has taken all before it. This is lightyears tougher than recent runs and will likely find the long Belmont Straight his downfall but must include into exotic bets.
5. STATE SOLICITOR - 6. PATRIMONIO - 3. TRANQUILLA SUNRISE
SUGGESTED BET - 5. STATE SOLICITOR $100
Morton racing is ticking along quite well at the minute and stable apprentice Sarah Bonner's only tactical error of the past year is her questionable selection of male companion. Dendee was an impressive winner at Northam last start and this race on paper looks extremely winnable. Happy to have her on top in the first leg of the quaddie. Imposing record of 6 wins from 17 starts looks very capable of being extended to an impressive 8 wins from 18 starts here. 3 year old Kentucky Lass has an awkward draw to overcome but carries only 53kg after the claim for Jake Casey. Form around some of the stronger 3 year olds in WA suggests that she can measure up here and may get under the radar. Strong on speed effort last start behind Uptown Funk who was far from disgraced behing My Greek Boy, a galloper going places. Another Vision found Cubitt and Cundy a bit strong last start and falls into a relatively weak fillies and mares race. Drawn to get a soft run throughout can fill a hole. Pretty open race behind Dendee, who looks clearly the one to beat.
1. DENDEE - 12. KENTUCKY LASS - 2. ANOTHER VISION
SUGGESTED BET - 1. DENDEE $50 x $50
Reverting back to the old WA proverb, 'When in doubt, go Pike'. This is a very evenly graded bunch of fillies contesting the Belmont Oaks and the race is much, much deeper than the Dayana in my opinion. The Pinjarra mile race won by War Ksar has already produced subsequent winners Indefatigable and Juicing Carrots and Press the Petal safely accounted for both those gallopers. I think going fresh, second-up into this race is a perfect preparation for her and in a relatively even field I'm sticking with W.Pike. Should get a soft tow into the race from barrier 1 and as long as she sees clear galloping down the straight will certainly be coming late. Showy Chloe ran second in the Belmont Guineas and has to be a live hope again here. Many questioned her ability over a mile so those doubters will be vocal again at 2000 but I think she will safely see out the trip. Capricorn Dancer was a maiden until last Wednesday but looks primed for this distance range and hails from the staying stable of JT Warwick, treat with caution. Wolfey is flying and Hey Listen won authoritatively last start, must be included. Culverin ran a solid third in the WATC Derby, Rosmartini ran an improved race in the Guineas and could lead. Wide open quaddie leg.
13. PRESS THE PETAL - 1. SHOWY CHLOE - 12. CAPRICORN DANCER
The Belmont Guineas is an extremely open affair and the last is no exception. I'll be loading up both the last two legs of the quaddie this week as the recently resurrected PerthTurfTalk Quaddie Club, affectionately known as the 'Quad Bods' try to fill the coffers. This looks a genuine field leg for mine with potentially Prager making way for extra percentage. Eventually after an extended period of head scratching I settled on Hot Goods who is undefeated after 4 starts at Belmont over the short course. Hard to believe the short Ascot straight didn't suit her but back to Belmont should see her at her best. Tiny little pocket rocket filly to be ridden by Paul Harvey usually leads on her ear but with ex-Hong Kong speedster The Price engaged could have a bit of pressure applied early. No surprise to see her lead and win, however, there are a number of chances behind her. Rule To Wyn has never run a bad race, Roger the Roman is ultra consistent, It's Dynamite carries a mere 52kg from a beautiful draw, fellow 3 year old Mystic Maid is flying. You could make a case for most of these. PTT Quad: 1,2,8,12 / 3,7 / 1,2,3,4,8,11,12,13 / 1,3,6,7,8,11,13,14 - $100 = 20%
6. HOT GOODS - 3. RULE TO WYN - 13. IT'S DYNAMITE
Race 1 3 – 1 – 2 – 6 3
Nodustonme EACH-WAY
Race 2 1 – 5 – 3 – 2 1 Properantes WIN
Race 3 1 – 2 – 4 – 10 1 Mad Brad EACH-WAY
Race 4 6 – 5 – 3 – 2 6 Patrimonio EACH-WAY
Race 5 8 – 5 – 1 – 10 8 Bourbon Dynasty EACH-WAY
Race 6 1 – 7 – 3 – 4 1 Senso EACH-WAY
Race 7 1 – 2 – 3 – 13 1 Showy Chloe WIN
Race 8 7 – 6 – 8 – 13 7 Roger The Roman EACH-WAY
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Nodustonme finished 2L within sweet ora last start and jumps $5 second fav today... Jazari from the same race finished 2.5L behind sweet ora and was clearly the eyecatcher out of that race (held up got out late and flew home) and jumps $13 today :-?? 8-}
thanks to tabtouch and their race replays amongst the online form guide helped me include it in my early quaddie after I had a squiz at its debut run
[-O<BlacksAFake likes this post.
Our premium and only purpose built winter track...
I know it was a lto of rain but please...get on with racing you dipsticks
hash likes this post.
yep meeting postponed!
who will everyone blame I wonder..... I couldn't give a toss, my main concern is the rape charge us punters will be screaming when we see the pathetic divi the tab throw out!
just refund us all money, how can you seriously payout or come up with a dividend on a quaddie when only 1 of 4 legs have been run and won
$3.50 the quaddie has paid!! what an absolute frikkin joke
Number of combos remaining * dividend * percentage
Ie if you have 110 combos alive and you percentage is 12% then your ticket value is
110 * 3.5 * 0.12
= 46.20
That's how I think it works
hash likes this post.
I rang them and got the impression, however many combos you have left (72)
and the percentage (8%) with the divi paying $3.50 I thought I'd get back 28c for my 5% of $3.50 times that by 72 should give me $20.16
it seems the more I've spent the more I've lost! I'm gonna sound like a chump trying to explain this to the boys at work in our punters club
RIO likes this post.
therealkramer likes this post.
Tipping relative newcomer Beaucount on top in the 2016 Dayana Plate. Historically this race has produced handy horses with recent winners Tradesman and Proceedwithcaution safely stepping into open class in future preparations. I can see the same for Beaucount, a big, striding Viscount gelding Beaucount. Fred Kersley is the master trainer and Steve Parnham has a great association with the stable in big races. His effort in the Belmont Guineas was sensational, tramping 3 and 4 deep throughout and to fight on into fourth placing was a testiment to his natural ability. As long as that run didn't completely empty the tank then I think the step up to 2000m will bring him right into his own and he appeals as the one to chase down. Juicing Carrots was an impressive last start winner and has W.Pike into the saddle. Scratched as a $1.80 favourite on Wednesday to be saved for this he looks the logical danger. I'm willing to narrow the race down to those two from a quaddie perspective. Jetoomy is at the end of his preparation but team Warwick have big wraps.
7. BEAUCOUNT - 3. JUICING CARROTS - 4. JETOOMY