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Belmont Preview, 23rd Jul 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Amelia Park Plate - Scott Embry
Jazari was a last start winner when charging home on a rain affected track to a comfortable 1 length victory but also possesses the Sweet Ora form lines which I think are almost the strongest juvenile form lines of recent months. Should get a lovely run from barrier 4 here and go close to making it two on the bounce. Gangbuster charged home from last to run down Dusty Storm, must conceed that galloper 3kg here and will need to be at his best. Dusty Storm has improved as the distances increase and looks the likely and logical leader in the opening event. With a 3kg weight pull on Gangbuster Aaron Mitchell can dictate terms and really test this lot. Golgotha was scratched from Wednesday to be saved for this race and can measure up. Queen's Parade was excellent on debut when savaging the line from last. Trial was sound and Pike takes the ride, should be competitive. Chill the Champers carries only 52kg and the trial was better than it reads on paper. This race is much deeper than just Jazari as the market would suggest.
1. JAZARI - 3. GANGBUSTER - 2. DUSTY STORM
Jazari was a last start winner when charging home on a rain affected track to a comfortable 1 length victory but also possesses the Sweet Ora form lines which I think are almost the strongest juvenile form lines of recent months. Should get a lovely run from barrier 4 here and go close to making it two on the bounce. Gangbuster charged home from last to run down Dusty Storm, must conceed that galloper 3kg here and will need to be at his best. Dusty Storm has improved as the distances increase and looks the likely and logical leader in the opening event. With a 3kg weight pull on Gangbuster Aaron Mitchell can dictate terms and really test this lot. Golgotha was scratched from Wednesday to be saved for this race and can measure up. Queen's Parade was excellent on debut when savaging the line from last. Trial was sound and Pike takes the ride, should be competitive. Chill the Champers carries only 52kg and the trial was better than it reads on paper. This race is much deeper than just Jazari as the market would suggest.
1. JAZARI - 3. GANGBUSTER - 2. DUSTY STORM
Comments
State Solicitor has grown in stature at every run from his first-up midweek maiden victory where he paid an incredible $2.40 to the point where he is looking to make it 4 wins from 5 starts and has a stranglehold over the market at $1.26 to $1.33 in most markets. He drops from 1300m back to 1200m and rises to the pinnacle weight of 59kg for the first time in his career. I think he is a super classy horse on the rapid rise, however, at the price I am very much willing to play You're a Rum'in. You're A Rum'in returned from a 431 day injury enforced lay off in a blaze of glory and I think that form line will hold up with the beaten brigade all likely to win their fair share of races. He drops 2.5kg on that run and rises another furlong which should be to his advantage. I see him as a certainty to run second and a very good eachway chance to knock off the favourite. If anything goes wrong for State Solicitor, or the weight drags him down then You're A Rum'in will be the one to knock him off. Those two should streak the others and I'll throw in either Uptown Funk who found My Greek Boy a little strong last start or likely leader Laurensen in for third.
4. YOU'RE A RUM'IN - 1. STATE SOLICITOR - 2. UPTOWN FUNK
SUGGESTED BET - 4. YOU'RE A RUM'IN $30 x $70
Secret Nova has an imposing career record of 18 starts for 14 top 3 finishes, draws barrier 1 here and carries only 57.5kg dropping down to a 72+ grade after contesting solely 78+ so far this preparation. She has run into talented types like Beaufine winner Military Reign, top classers Zuccheros and Pininci and carries the same weight. She is an eachway bet and one that I'm more than happy to play. As we saw on the transferred Wednesday meet there is not a lot between Black Dynamite, Rule to Wyn, Hot Goods and Roger the Roman with less than 2 lengths separating them at the finish. Roger the Roman meets Black Dynamite 1.5kg better for being beaten a nose and will appeal to a number of punters. I just think that Secret Nova is a class above them and should go close to making it 6 wins from just 19 starts and a rare metro win for Shelby Bowtell. Black Dynamite is probably looking for further now but is all class and the main danger. Marchand was flat last start but the race maps perfectly for in-form hoop Sarah Bonner who is riding incredibly well at the minute and really stamping her authority on the apprentice ranks.
1. SECRET NOVA - 3. BLACK DYNAMITE - 2. MARCHAND
SUGGESTED BET - 1. SECRET NOVA $25 x $25
Mad Brad has been a frustrating commodity for punters this entire preparation and to an extent ever since burst onto the scene and strung together 3 wins in a row. It has now been 489 days since he graced the winners' enclosure and I have no doubt at all that many have sacked him. This is the last chance for me and he is only being afforded another opportunity because I have faith in Peter Hall to get the most out of him. Needs to improve and usually does sharply when 'Hally' jumps into the saddle. It's It will be looking to cross and lead from barrier 11 for W.Pike and will probably have a little early competition from Flying Roar and potentially Sweet As Bro who may look to roll forwards from more favourable gates. It's It is yet to win down the long Belmont straight after 6 attempts but in fairness they have been against quality opposition like Vega Magic, Gigante and Socially Unique. This race does not contain any gallopers of that quality and he gets his chance to record a deserving victory. Sweet As Bro is over 2 years without a victory however 50% of his wins have come second-up. Drawn perfectly he can definitely figure.
3. MAD BRAD - 6. IT'S IT - 1. SWEET AS BRO (NZ)
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Dark Musket meets The Flirt 2kg better at the weights for beating him home on the 18th of June however, William Pike is worth his weight in gold and you can effectively throw the form guide out here and just back him in. The Flirt got everything go his way last start with the heavens opening and dropping more than 10mm on the Belmont track over an hours period. Unlikely to get those same conditions here with the forecast being for relatively fine conditions. He is flying right now and drops 2kg on that win, drawn perfectly in barrier 3 and with WA's most deadly combination W.Pike and JT Warwick I think you can lock him in to win. Hard to see anything knocking off The Flirt the way he is going and with another staying race next Saturday I think he could potentially record 3 wins in 3 weeks. Dark Musket with the weight advantage the obvious danger but with all due respect you can not compare Pike and Johnson-Porter over a journey. Properantes must lump a full 59kg and I am certainly gun shy after his last start flop. Raising Dubai was my on top selection last week before being scratched and can bob up at odds.
8. THE FLIRT - 2. DARK MUSKET - 7. RAISING DUBAI
SUGGESTED BET - 8. THE FLIRT $100
Nothing outside the box here Juicing Carrots has been brilliant at his past two starts, his win in the Dayana Plate was emphatic recording an effortless 5 length victory. Should get a very similar run in transit from barrier 6 and it is hard to see any of the engaged geldings turning the tables on him at set weights. Jetoomy was the galloper who caught the eye as the only potential danger from the boys side after missing the start when jumping awkwardly and weaving a passage through tiring runners into second placing. Rosmartini should roll straight to the top and control the tempo. If you're out in front in a staying race there is no better person to have on board than Jason Whiting and you can guarantee he will rate her to perfection. She is the best of the fillies and will control the race. Culverin could improve at her third run back from a spell and if she reproduces the form around First Impressions and Arcadia Dream from the Oaks and WATC Derby can figure. In This Life missed the Guineas and was probably a run short in the Oaks, could improve.
2. JUICING CARROTS - 3. JETOOMY - 7. ROSMARTINI
I've been aboard Cherie Amour all preparation and think the 6 year old mare is in arguably career best form. First up she was nosed out by Pop Hero before tackling a class beyond her ability when fifth to Showy Chloe, Bourne Supremacy and Rule to Wyn and then was luckless over 1200m behind Red Paddy. Put a line through her run when 8th to Pop Hero because she was caught in a traffic jam and then forced into the role of pace-maker over 1200m, a trip she historically struggles to see out. Dropping back to 1000m and drawn barrier 1 I think she will get the run of the race for Azzopardi and represents great eachway value around the $14 mark. She will be getting my money again and I expect another good showing. Audience on the short back up from Thursday ticks a lot of boxes and it should be noted the $12 and $7.50 on offer have already been scooped up. Questionmark on her ability to round a corner after 3 runs up the Pinjarra straight this preparation, however, I think she will lead and from there can be very hard to catch. She Rules All is another who is likely to contest for the lead. She has been a model of consistency her entire life and the warm-up trial was super. Universal Moon is highly talented but a risky proposition who often misses the kick.
3. CHERIE AMOUR - 9. AUDIENCE - 4. SHE RULES ALL
SUGGESTED BET - 3. CHERIE AMOUR $10 x $40
Cronkite destroyed opposition at his first start for new trainer Grant Williams and appeals on Saturday as the best bet on the card. Meets a field which is no tougher than his first-up assignment and from barrier 4, dropping 1.5kg on that victory and W.Pike in the saddle he effectively ticks every punting box. Will be short, around the $2.20 mark I envisage but that should just be put in - take out and money for jam. Baraki Beats I have marked as the danger. Should get an opportunity to lead and roll here from barrier 7 and Aaron Mitchell is a noted front running jockey. His rated rides aboard leaders like Muskets At Dawn should make him a very suitable engagement. Baraki Beats will lay out around the bend, that's a certainty and potentially give Pike and Cronkite the run up along the rails. If that's the case then it is all over. Bourbon Dynasty was ultra impressive last start when heavily supported on track and winning by 3 lengths. I think however she is a Pike only proposition and with him out of the saddle I am off her. All Too Much has recorded three bridesmaid performances in a row but must contend with an aweful barrier draw. PTT Quad Investment: 8 / 2,3,7,8,9 / 1,3,4,6,9 / 10 - $100 = 400%
10. CRONKITE - 1. BARAKI BEATS - 3. BOURBON DYNASTY
SUGGESTED BET - 10. CRONKITE $100
Race 1 3 – 1 – 5 – 10 3
Gangbuster WIN
Race 2 3 – 1 – 4 – 8 3 Laurensen PLACE
Race 3 1 – 9 – 3 – 5 1 Secret Nova EACH-WAY
Race 4 6 – 2 – 1 – 3 6 It’s It WIN
Race 5 2 – 8 – 3 – 4 2 Dark Musket EACH-WAY
Race 6 8 – 2 – 7 – 3 8 Culverin EACH-WAY
Race 7 3 – 12 – 6 – 4 3 Cherie Amour EACH-WAY
Race 8 1 – 10 – 3 – 4 1 Baraki Beats EACH-WAY
Full preview at PerthPreview .com
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I agree - remember her winning a 1700m race as a 2 yr old. Trainer goes alright as well ;)
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so no doubt she will now be heading east for an unwinnable race that's normally the go for IGA
Don't take Platinum Rocker to Qld
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