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How about the 2YOs?

West Australian Racing
DharrisDharris    67 posts
West Australian Racing
Anyone seen any good prospects? Maybe early Karrakatta potential? I know we still haven’t seen many of them, but it’s still exciting racing. Looks like a lot of fast fillies out there.
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Comments

  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    I think the real good ones are just about to start racing now.
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    It seems like the last 10 years have changed a bit with 2yo's in that there seems to be quite a few that win both features. But it never used to be like that. Early season winners were sometimes never seen in the winners circle again and some horses that went onto be talented older horses, were just off the pace as babies.

    This year there is a full two months between features, making it ten weeks to a Sires Produce, some year's it has only been six weeks to the KK, then another two to the Sires. So in a season like this year, that length of time can be too much for a lot of babies that may only have a peak period of four weeks or three races.

    Now I may be wrong, but I would think a better schedule would be the two lead up black type 2yo races to the KK is a better route for an Owner then have a throw at the Sires as an after thought. But if I had a good one right now, I just can't see how I could be at my best for such a long period.

    thefalcon, Manchild, Dharris likes this post.

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  • thefalconthefalcon    19,996 posts
    seems it was programmed by someone who has absolutely no bloody idea.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    What am I missing...?
    “Two months between features” ?

    Nevershowsurprise likes this post.

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  • NevershowsurpriseNevershowsurprise    995 posts
    Tivers said:

    What am I missing...?
    “Two months between features” ?

    Nothing, typical Diatribe.


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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    Nevershowsurprise said:

    Tivers said:

    What am I missing...?
    “Two months between features” ?

    Nothing, typical Diatribe.



    Perhaps if you read the comment again. Here this time I will use names to clarify.

    Simply,
    this year there is an eight week period between the Magic Millions race
    and the Karrakatta Plate. In some years that has been only six weeks. Lucky Street won both races with a six week gap between race dates. He was and still is, the most dominant 2yo of the last decade as far as feature races go, so it probably wouldn't have made a whole lot of difference to him. However, over the last decade he has proven the exception.

    Last year, Valour Road completed the double with a nine week gap between race dates, however you could argue that the quality of the KK field has only thrown up Market Ruler as a quality horse to this point in time.

    2017 and Lucy Mae won both races the year before but off a seven week gap between race dates. You could say she was a very good juvenile, but she only won those two races and what she beat in both fields were handy at best with four wins following second to her both times for Achernar Star being the best of them.

    In 2016 Whispering Brook, who has gone onto become a million dollar mare, didn't contest the Magic Millions.

    2015 saw Lucky Street with just a six week gap, win both races and just about everything else, but he didn't go onto the Sires. Not massive quality as it turned out in what he beat.

    2014 was the year of Hobart Jones. A horse that won just four times in his career, three of them by the time he had won the KK against fields less than memorable.

    2013 the ill fated Ms Funovits, who died approaching the barriers for the Sires Produce after having won at Flemington, then hopped on a plane here to win the KK in a walk.

    2012 and yet another horse who didn't contest both races, Luke's Luck. Not many went onto glory from that year.

    2011 Motion Pictures didn't contest both races. She won a total of five times in her career, every single one of them as a 2yo, but her greatest scalp was that of Playing God in the Sires Produce. Still to produce as a broodmare anything of quality.

    2010 and Gold Rocks won the KK not having contested the MM. Three of her four career wins came as a juvenile, she beat Wolfe Dreams into second, he won just over $1/2M and a very good juvenile in For Your Eyes Only, who won ten times.

    In 2009, Brava Fortune actually contested both races, running fifth in the MM to Amelia's Reason, then winning the KK knocking over Grand Nirvana, then again in the Sires. That was a seven week gap between the MM and the KK that year.

    So my point is, that over the last decade, only in the last two years have 2yo's won both the Magic Millions and the Karrakatta Plate with more than a six week gap between runs (7 & 9). In six of those seasons, they didn't even try. Now it was most likely for a variety of reasons, but asking too much of those horses was most likely paramount.

    Lucky Street was the beneficiary of just a six week gap, but he didn't have world beaters to knock over as history has shown. You have to go back all the way to the season of Brava Fortune in 2008 to find a juvenile that competed in both the MM and the KK, with the Sires thrown in, that actually won two of the three and did so against a couple of horses that had ability and one that was outstanding in WA terms in Grand Nirvana. 

    So rather than 'typical diatribe' this was a well thought out discussion point that has validity in any discussion about programming and two year olds.

    spinking likes this post.

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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Oh................. MM Race.
    I don't factor that in for anything, being that (at a guess) 10% of the 2yo crop are eligible to even start in it.
    Not a huge sample size.

    Nevershowsurprise likes this post.

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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    Tivers said:

    Oh................. MM Race.

    I don't factor that in for anything, being that (at a guess) 10% of the 2yo crop are eligible to even start in it.
    Not a huge sample size.
    But wouldn't it be a chance of a much better quality field if held later, say two weeks prior to Perth Stakes / Gimcrack Stakes Day ? Hold the Magic Millions Sale back three weeks into March and that would compress the 2YO season into almost a carnival.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    True.
    But that race isn't about RWWA (RWWA Racing).
    It's purely promotion for MM Sales / private commercial purposes, so nothing ot do with it as I say.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Better move for MM maybe would be to put more emphasis on the 3yo race - seeing as that's more stand alone than the 2yo's per your points.
    Say split the total stakes evenly between the two.

    Get better promo value out of it too then as seen as two big sponsored races, rather than just the one, with a poor relation / tack on.

    whereamigoingwrong likes this post.

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  • DharrisDharris    67 posts
    Well Here are the 2YO winners so far:

    Prim and proper - Alfred Nobel
    Specialism - Safeguard
    Jericho Missile - Smart Missile
    Rubic Rose - Rubic
    Beethoven - Helmet
    Miss west Coast - Safeguard
    Bubaroochy - Snippetson
    Amarillo Rose - Slater

    I think that’s all of them. Surely they will aim Specialism at the KK.
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  • thetruththetruth    45 posts
    On exposed form the two Safeguard fillies have to be at the top of the pile.
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    Very interesting set of Trials at Lark Hill on Tuesday, especially among those that have raced. I still think we are four weeks away from knowing who what where though.
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  • DharrisDharris    67 posts
    Jericho Missile has shown its fast than the safeguard fillies. I hope it’s a local stallion that gets it anyway!
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  • thetruththetruth    45 posts
    Specialism didn't everything wrong except turn around the other way and only just got beat by JM, he's a nice horse but for mine the filly is better.

    Dharris likes this post.

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  • thetruththetruth    45 posts
    *did
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  • DharrisDharris    67 posts
    thetruth said:

    Specialism didn't everything wrong except turn around the other way and only just got beat by JM, he's a nice horse but for mine the filly is better.




    Not knocking her! She’s a ripper. Just hope you’re right.
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    The time of Miss West Coast winning yesterday was impressive. Red Can Man also ran time in running second. Certainly Miss West Coast is going to the MM race, I'm unaware if connections paid up for Red Can Man. From here though it is a long ten weeks to the Karrakatta Plate.
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  • DharrisDharris    67 posts
    DamienWyer said:

    The time of Miss West Coast winning yesterday was impressive. Red Can Man also ran time in running second. Certainly Miss West Coast is going to the MM race, I'm unaware if connections paid up for Red Can Man. From here though it is a long ten weeks to the Karrakatta Plate.




    Bloody brilliant. Especially in the silks. Do you reckon more 2YO races would benefit the industry? Seems to be some of the only racing in WA where your average joe can avoid running into Bobs stock
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    I actually honestly believe we would have better 2yo's if we didn't trial until December and not race until 1st January. Almost nothing year in year out has a career after being pushed early. Holding them back three months also might mean that we could have 2yo racing every week instead of fortnightly as the stocks would be much healthier.
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  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,739 posts
    DamienWyer said:

    I actually honestly believe we would have better 2yo's if we didn't trial until December and not race until 1st January. Almost nothing year in year out has a career after being pushed early. Holding them back three months also might mean that we could have 2yo racing every week instead of fortnightly as the stocks would be much healthier.




    Whispering Brook won the initial plate in Oct after 2 trials, still going ok!
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    Yes but she is highly likely to be the exception.

    thefalcon, Rex likes this post.

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  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,739 posts
    Saturdays winner Fire and Rain had 3 starts for 2 wins and two trials before January of its 2yr old year.

    Agent Pippa had a trial and a win before Jan, got a win out of her age group in Oct. Just sold to the east apparently??? Be interesting to see how she goes.

    Then you have the category of horses like Carolina Reaper, one career win in Nov for around $89K. Since 15 unplaced runs. The question is would she have gone any better not going to the races early or would she have just not picked up that $89K and still had 15 unplaced runs?

    Plenty of horses doing ok/fair from that batch including Princess Piero, Platoon, Party Night to name a few but again the unanswerable question is would they better without those campaigns?

    The pin ups for the next year pre Jan are pretty good, Money Maher, Achernar Star, Art Series and Seanie have continued on with their careers. From this bunch however there were a quite a few who came with big wraps and have barely been sighted since.

    Of the 2015 Oct to Dec the previously mentioned Whispering Brook is the star but Sweet Ora goes alright! Then you have Next Generation, Stored Energy, I am Incredible, Speeding Comet and Swedish Memories who have all earned well in excess of 150K.

    From 2014 Lucky Street had 2 trials and 2 race wins before the end of October, didn't stop him winning the Magic Millions and Karakata Plate. This years Broome Cup winner Diamond Tonique had 2 trials and 2 race starts for a win pre christmas. Shady Gray is still adding to his 220K in the bank and London Line was also a pre christmas winner who was very good through the feature 3yr old races at the back end of the next year.

    Bottom line for me, tend to agree that there will be people out there who will destroy horses chasing that early money but we can never be sure that any of those horses were going to be any good any how. Conversely if you have the right horse with the right trainer and they are ready to run types they can clearly continue on with it.


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  • SKIDSSKIDS    1,006 posts
    I've got a share in a very nice Better Than Ready colt in the Ben Currie stable.
    He's been back in work again for a few weeks now after a few spells due to going shinny. He looks pretty sharp ;)
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  • thefalconthefalcon    19,996 posts
    Princess Pierro….. :-q

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    It's great fun to have a horse that earns $300-400K but I had more in mind those that earn in excess of $500K. Also those that win in excess of five metro quality races.

    In terms of two year olds that win early, they also win against those that are destined for mediocrity for the most part.
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  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,739 posts
    thefalcon said:

    Princess Pierro….. :-q




    Come on there is still a heart beat haha.

    thefalcon likes this post.

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  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,739 posts
    DamienWyer said:

    It's great fun to have a horse that earns $300-400K but I had more in mind those that earn in excess of $500K. Also those that win in excess of five metro quality races.

    In terms of two year olds that win early, they also win against those that are destined for mediocrity for the most part.



    You really are talking a very select few WA horses now the likes of Material Man, Gatting (who did trial and was nom'd before Jan). Great Shot gets there having one 6 metro races, a very small group indeed. Misty Metal on her way.

    Your last statement I feel is a reason to have your horse running early, you are likely to be up against horses of limited ability. If yours runs why wait for the opposition to get stronger?

    I never realized Material Man was 4 when he first started racing. Maybe after he's taken out that big mile more will leave them that bit longer.
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,677 posts
    Gilgamesh that is my whole point. Bob doesn't push them early and look at his results.
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  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    When your hoof is on the till, race. If they can win at two have a crack and collect.
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