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JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
Harness & Greyhounds
All reference to the "New Business Model" from 2018 now appear to have been expunged from the website. replaced by programming directs and links to the National Ratings Handicapping along with all the templates ( for points gained/points lost according to stake of the race).

Early days (extremely early) but Concession drivers are getting far more opportunities, thanks in part to both the Busselton Club's very progressive promotion for their season, and trainers getting savvy on the concessional claim, which only works because of a substantial swing in programming to PBD, as it always should have been.

Short priced favourite betting data also showing a definite trend based on very limited data from just the 5 meetings completed: Starting Price data and "C" indicates Concession driver. Just 7 of 39 races won by an odds on favourite, just three under $1.50.

Busselton 1/1         G.P 3/1       Albany 4/1        Pinjarra 6/1        G.P  7/1
3.90                        3.40            6.50                  3.80                    2.10
2.80                        1.90            6.00                  6.50                    31.00 C
1.95                        15.10          1.32                  12.00 C               1.75
15.00 C                  12.50          1.40                   2.20                    11.00
2.25                        4.40            2.40                  1.50                     7.50
7.00                         8.80           4.80                  12.00 C               51.00
9.00                         1.20           2.60                   8.50  C                3.20
4.00                         1.80 C       4.80                   2.00  C

Average Winner Starting Price of $7.20
+1 -1

VillageKid, jum likes this post.

Comments

  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    3,025 posts
    Promising figures but average winner starting price can be misleading as one long priced winner can skew the figures markedly. An example would be an 8 race program with seven winners at $2 and one at $31 would return an average winning price of $5.625, hardly representative.

    loose_goose likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Which is why I listed all individual race winners, no smoke and mirrors, which clearly shows 16 winners out of the 39 races at better than $6.00 and a marked reduction in extremely short priced winners.

    But it is only 5 meetings and far too early to draw anything other than a "promising" tag. Antony Green would not be declaring the poll on such early figures.

    VillageKid, warrenrobinson, sonny, jum likes this post.

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  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    590 posts
    Hopefully the trend continues and adds value to dividends time will tell people love value. The next item racing needs to address is integrity (all codes.) Hong Kong is certainly the bench mark and in my opinion Australian Racing  falls far behind. If we want to grow our industry Integrity and Handicapping need to be of high standards and transparent at all times. No Handicap No Turnover No Future.

    JayJay, savethegame, sonny, VillageKid, Arapaho, jum likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    The differential between Integrity in Hong Kong and Australian Racing Jurisdictions of all codes is Light Years. Unless our integrity becomes visible and transparent, proactive and enforces breaches of the rules with the full force of their capacity, the public will eat the Racing Industry alive. There will be no industry.

    Dodgy multiple offenders don't get the chance to be multiple offenders in Hong Kong.

    Animal welfare, drug breaches (horse and human), whip abuse and overall presentation and professionalism of the very highest order must be instituted, whatever it costs. You don't get away with a warning in Hong Kong, you don't rock up in anything but suit and tie and you present the sport in the best possible light at all times.

    warrenrobinson, savethegame, sonny, VillageKid, Arapaho likes this post.

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  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    443 posts
    JayJay said:

    All reference to the "New Business Model" from 2018 now appear to have been expunged from the website. replaced by programming directs and links to the National Ratings Handicapping along with all the templates ( for points gained/points lost according to stake of the race).

    Early days (extremely early) but Concession drivers are getting far more opportunities, thanks in part to both the Busselton Club's very progressive promotion for their season, and trainers getting savvy on the concessional claim, which only works because of a substantial swing in programming to PBD, as it always should have been.

    Short priced favourite betting data also showing a definite trend based on very limited data from just the 5 meetings completed: Starting Price data and "C" indicates Concession driver. Just 7 of 39 races won by an odds on favourite, just three under $1.50.

    Busselton 1/1         G.P 3/1       Albany 4/1        Pinjarra 6/1        G.P  7/1
    3.90                        3.40            6.50                  3.80                    2.10
    2.80                        1.90            6.00                  6.50                    31.00 C
    1.95                        15.10          1.32                  12.00 C               1.75
    15.00 C                  12.50          1.40                   2.20                    11.00
    2.25                        4.40            2.40                  1.50                     7.50
    7.00                         8.80           4.80                  12.00 C               51.00
    9.00                         1.20           2.60                   8.50  C                3.20
    4.00                         1.80 C       4.80                   2.00  C

    Average Winner Starting Price of $7.20

    I think the opportunities given to concession drivers all stems from the system itself, much like the MCR system you can actually use a concession driver to draw a gate , using a concession driver in the HWOE system you drop back a class but draw terribly , I dont think one track should be given credit for any of it, I mean pinjarra have put on a concession drivers race Monday if anything that's most likely the biggest promotion for junior drivers we've had so far
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  • ArapahoArapaho    394 posts
    Anyone know what happened or whats going on re Shepparton cup,watched race seen Captain Hammerhead win.
    Looking at results Tab, it hasnt run in first four, doesnt mention any protests or disqualification and harness site still has it winning.
    +1 -1
  • ArapahoArapaho    394 posts
    Watched replay,only thing I can see, is driver dropped leg in straight. 

    G-Mac likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Stewards disqualified him.... excessive whip, leg dropped, perhaps "hocking"?

    Arapaho likes this post.

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  • ArapahoArapaho    394 posts
    If thats the case, seems a bit harsh,
    a least some one will be happy, the now winner backed from 16s to 4.20 previos day or two. 
    +1 -1
  • FrogFrog    172 posts
    The biggest difference is the GP track is set up fairer
    to most runners so brings up some different results,
    other than just leaders (which is better for everyone)
    You need value to have a bet or you just stay out.
    ?????????????????????????????????????????
    +1 -1
  • G-MacG-Mac    1,677 posts
    Arapaho said:

    Watched replay,only thing I can see, is driver dropped leg in straight. 

    Spot on, Arapaho
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  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    3,025 posts
    edited January 2025
    https://fb.watch/x4rGHHpzDn/

    Above link to Stewards explanation.
    +1 -1
  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    70 races now run under NR, a few really short ones at Pinjarra today ($1.12, $1.16, $1.50) but a few long shots as well to counter balance. Sample size is growing and average winning SP across the 70 races is well above the so called "sweet spot" (of $1.90 to $2.15) at $6.41 after being at $6.89 prior to today's 9 races.
    +1 -1
  • loose_gooseloose_goose    2,135 posts
    Chariotsonfire said:

    https://fb.watch/x4rGHHpzDn/


    Above link to Stewards explanation.
    Brilliant find that Chariots, worth a listen. I'm off now to watch the replay.

    Silly question probably, why when the foot off the sulky would the driver put straight back, why leave dangling ?

    Steward Peter Chadwick, former jockey Jimmy's son ?
    +1 -1
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    3,025 posts
    One would suggest that he was hocking. Lost and Interdominion Final for the same offence.
    +1 -1
  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    No, there was no "dropped foot" on Expensive Ego if that is the Interdominion Final you are referring to, he changed lanes and cut off the rejuvenated claimer Boncel Benjamin (who never ever won another race!) and Boncel won it on protest. The "DF" notation alongside his name in the results was driver fined over whip use. Memorable for lots of reasons that race, not the least being coming home in 52.7 the last 800m of a 3090m trip. Even the great King Of Swing couldn't get near them.

    There was another case of "dropped foot/hocking" in the  2021 Tasmanian Cup Final, Bully's Delight and Rhys Nicholson. Horse was disqualified some weeks later after a post race inquiry headed by Ray Murrihy and Nicholson got 6 weeks and a fine for "egregious actions".

    Chariotsonfire likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    loose_goose said:

    Chariotsonfire said:

    https://fb.watch/x4rGHHpzDn/


    Above link to Stewards explanation.
    Brilliant find that Chariots, worth a listen. I'm off now to watch the replay.

    Silly question probably, why when the foot off the sulky would the driver put straight back, why leave dangling ?

    Steward Peter Chadwick, former jockey Jimmy's son ?
    Yep, Jimmy Chadwick's son. A correct  (and brave) call in my my view and very well explained by Mr Chadwick. This is the sort of integrity all codes should pursue.Although superficially "negative" publicity, in the long run, it is what must happen if public confidence is to be restored. No ifs or buts, the rule is the rule, breach and cop the consequences. Whip abuse could be remedied in an instant if suspension and relegation were implemented.

    LightningJake, Offthebit likes this post.

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  • MarkovinaMarkovina    3,326 posts
     I watched that Shepparton Gold Pacing Cup live , and Brittany Graham post race was right onto it 

    The 1st thing she said ( and she didnt say it in a spiteful manner ) she just said outstanding run by the " winner " which it was and gee David Moran had legs dangling  everywhere etc

    Silly and unneccesary by Moran , at the top of the straight it had 2nd horse past the post cold and beaten 

    Its a plum race the Shepp Cup , alongside the Ballarat and Bendigo Cups , so in my opinion on face value Moran should get a lengthy penalty - and if you backed that horse or had say say the tri 5 or 10 times you would be ropeable 
    +1 -1
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    3,025 posts
    NR took a slight setback at Bunbury last night with 7 favourites and a $5.50 chance winning.

    In fairness all but one of the winning favourites were backable.
    +1 -1
  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Yes, definitely took a small dive for meeting number 10.....I can hear certain owners/punters cheering in the background.... but swings and roundabouts. Only My Hammer Down unbackable at $1.06, the rest in the previously stated preferred "sweetspot" of around $1.90 to $2.20 which are backable.

    Average winning price over a smallish but growing data base of 79 races run so far is $6.35. 

    Pleasingly, 2 more wins for concession drivers amongst a growing amount of opportunities for them which I know is giving them great encouragement and boosting morale. 12 wins for concession drivers in the 79 races conducted under NR. They now believe they have a more significant role to play as owners and trainers start giving them drives. This can only be good for the future.

    warrenrobinson likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Just for comparison, 2024 for the same period (10 meetings, 78 races), average win dividend was $4.78.
    +1 -1
  • loose_gooseloose_goose    2,135 posts
    JayJay said:

    Yes, definitely took a small dive for meeting number 10.....I can hear certain owners/punters cheering in the background.... but swings and roundabouts. Only My Hammer Down unbackable at $1.06, the rest in the previously stated preferred "sweetspot" of around $1.90 to $2.20 which are backable.

    Average winning price over a smallish but growing data base of 79 races run so far is $6.35. 

    Pleasingly, 2 more wins for concession drivers amongst a growing amount of opportunities for them which I know is giving them great encouragement and boosting morale. 12 wins for concession drivers in the 79 races conducted under NR. They now believe they have a more significant role to play as owners and trainers start giving them drives. This can only be good for the future.
    Just looking at the results, a driver Tom Bryant had a winner, which is great, occassionally see his name on rank outsiders. What is his background history, as no nothing about him.
    +1 -1
  • ashleighmpashleighmp    34 posts
    loose_goose said:

    JayJay said:


    Just looking at the results, a driver Tom Bryant had a winner, which is great, occassionally see his name on rank outsiders. What is his background history, as no nothing about him.

    +1 -1
  • ashleighmpashleighmp    34 posts
    https://racingwa.com.au/news/2022/10/31/break-through-first-win-for-tom-bryant-at-northam

    Forgot the link ????

    JayJay, loose_goose, LightningJake likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Yes, very good Ash, I remember that excellent article. Adda Paris his first win, Foveaux Major on 2022 Collie cup day about a month later and now Gee Smith. Still drives track for Matt on Saturday Morning, works hard, good fellow.

    loose_goose likes this post.

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  • FrogFrog    172 posts
    Talking about 2025, todays headlines tell us a story.
    Star Casino on the brink of collapse.
    Note to ASX : customers are simple not turning up at the doors.
    With high inflation on bills and food items, household disposable
    income has shrink or disappeared.
    40% of small businesses down on revenue and low on cash flow.
    Families struggling to afford school fees and stationery items.
    Unemployed figures up and businesses closing daily.
    Gallops/Harness/Greyhounds, are not the only ones struggle street.
    (Crown Casino let go 1000 jobs last year, maybe ahead of the game)
    Anything to do with household disposable income are fighting over a
    very much smaller piece of the pie.
    That will mean a lot of business are in a world of pain.
    Plus Sunday crushing news that a takeaway coffee will go up to
    $10 - $12 by the end of March.....


    Chopchop43 likes this post.

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  • FrogFrog    172 posts
    I remember SA , cut back on prize money a few years ago,
    but seems to have turned the corner, now Victoria has done
    this twice in 2024. Are they the states like Crown or like WA /
    QLD doing the Star casino as we cant even run the $9k races
    at a profit on a Friday night. The high price NZers day are gone
    it would seem, there would be no return on investment.

    Chopchop43 likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Any chance of the Perth Casino following suit and closing it's doors? That cesspit has done nothing for our city other than attract B grade spivs, money launderers and rackateers as revealed in the inquiry into it's operations, and in the process, slaughtered the racing industry, particular harness.

    Unlike Woolies and Coles who profiteered and continue to do so by not only talking up the "cost of living crisis" but by also being major drivers, Casino's are just vultures preying on whoever they can get in the door. I loathe them.

    Rex likes this post.

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  • FrogFrog    172 posts
    Well gallops madness in NSW and VIC prize money increases
    would be just a matter of time before it falls. They have increased 
    prize money and the punters dollar spend over 10% decrease.
    Plus the state of Victoria is a mess and debt out of control.

    +1 -1
  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    443 posts
    Frog said:

    I remember SA , cut back on prize money a few years ago,

    but seems to have turned the corner, now Victoria has done
    this twice in 2024. Are they the states like Crown or like WA /
    QLD doing the Star casino as we cant even run the $9k races
    at a profit on a Friday night. The high price NZers day are gone
    it would seem, there would be no return on investment.

    like I said about qld and perhaps even sa , there's nothing wrong with having to cut the industry back in order to regrow it , if harness racing is to survive you need to entice new participants and like you stated before from the cost of living is only getting worse and worse making it harder and harder to get these people into the sport and to even keep existing participants involved.
    +1 -1
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