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Ascot Preview, 22nd Nov
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Crown Golden Ale Plate - Scott Embry
2 year old event to start the day, I will focus on the newcomers. Ningbo was a $110 000 graduate of the Gold Coast yearling Sales. She has a half brother by Sebring who sold for $260 000 and ran fourth in last years Gold Coast 2 year old Magic Millions Classic behind Unencumbered. Won a 1000m trial comfortably, hails from the powerful Simon Miller yard and with W.Pike in the saddle she looks very hard to catch. Senso is a $75 000 Street Sense colt out of Dehere mare Danza Doll who Lex Piper paid $320 000 for in 2008 as a yearling. Finished a head behind zippy filly Castle Queen so expect him to have some toe. Habenera is one of the first of this years War Chant crops and was an $85 000 purchase, her dame Hot Tamle was a 5 time 1000m winner, 3 time Ascot winner and debut 2 year old victor suggesting she will be an early 2 year old type. Looks an even race behind stand out debutant Ningbo.
11. NINGBO - 7. SENSO - 10. HABENERA
SUGGESTED BET - 11. NINGBO $60
2 year old event to start the day, I will focus on the newcomers. Ningbo was a $110 000 graduate of the Gold Coast yearling Sales. She has a half brother by Sebring who sold for $260 000 and ran fourth in last years Gold Coast 2 year old Magic Millions Classic behind Unencumbered. Won a 1000m trial comfortably, hails from the powerful Simon Miller yard and with W.Pike in the saddle she looks very hard to catch. Senso is a $75 000 Street Sense colt out of Dehere mare Danza Doll who Lex Piper paid $320 000 for in 2008 as a yearling. Finished a head behind zippy filly Castle Queen so expect him to have some toe. Habenera is one of the first of this years War Chant crops and was an $85 000 purchase, her dame Hot Tamle was a 5 time 1000m winner, 3 time Ascot winner and debut 2 year old victor suggesting she will be an early 2 year old type. Looks an even race behind stand out debutant Ningbo.
11. NINGBO - 7. SENSO - 10. HABENERA
SUGGESTED BET - 11. NINGBO $60
Comments
I'm tipping an early double for Pike in the opening two events and going with Arcadia Rose in the Carlton Dry Sprint. She is a Listed winner and finished in the top two at 6 of her 10 career starts. Well tried in the market first-up she was a tad disappointing. Pike retains the mount and blinkers added to racing gear I'm happy to give her a second chance. Nardini looks the obvious danger and bracket winning selection. Won two in a row last prep and has trialled extremely well this time in. Awkwardly drawn in barrier 10 but should be able to follow Inok across as he charges forwards. Inok has been a tremendous money spinner for me over the past few years. From Midweek to Geraldton to Saturday victories he loves 1200m, loves Jerry Noske and loves to lead. High Limit should be suited by the top end speed.
5. ARCADIA ROSE - 10. NARDINI - 1. INOK (NZ)
I found it quite hard to split my top two in Hobart Jones and Fuld's Bet. But with the barrier advantage, weight pull and the leader bias nature of the Ascot track to date I'm happy to go with Fuld's Bet. She was flying first-up and was casually reeled in by sharp Peter's gelding Disposition. Second-up in the Burgess Queen put in a good sight but found 1400m a tad too far. Drops back to 1200m here and looks very hard to catch. Hobart Jones ran a ripper first-up against older, stronger opposition. Beat home the likes of Tiger Pete, Fiddler's Elbow and Cool Trade. Rises to 60kg here but I think is still definitely the main danger. Keen to quinella them here. Palace Intruder has been ticking along nicely this preparation and with Australia's best hoop Damien Oliver aboard is well worth an eachway ticket to round out the trifecta.
7. FULD'S BET - 1. HOBART JONES - 3. PALACE INTRUDER
SUGGESTED BET - 7. FULD'S BET $20 x $30
I'm sitting quietly confident on my Kingston Town ticket on Real Love at $26 and I think if she can handle the 7 day back-up will be winning this and heading towards that race. Meets Kheleva 5kg worse at the weights but has class on her side and I think she is about to string a number of high quality victories together. Special horse on the rise. Black Heart Bart is a bookies favourite, continues to play the politician, all promise and no result. Seems to always find one better than him on the day but seldom runs a bad race. Kheleva is a 1400m specialist with 5 victories from 7 starts and is extremely well weighted at only 55kg. Miss Rose De Lago missed the kick and missed her chance at the Railway but from barrier 1 will be looking to lead and run them along like old times however must conceed Wroughted 2kg from their dead-heat on October 11.
11. REAL LOVE - 7. BLACK HEART BART - 9. KHELEVA
SUGGESTED BET - 11. REAL LOVE $40 x $40
Hussy By Choice was sensational first-up behind Shining Knight, caught without room to move on the fence, once she saw day-light there was more ping than a Chinese Pong tournament. 50% winning strike rate at 1200m, drawn ideally and a two time winner second-up the only two conerns are firstly, 59kg, however, she has carried 58.5 to victory previously and second, she has had a throat operation so I am always wary but I think she has the class to run this group off their feet. I see Cool Trade as the main danger. Disappointing first-up from a spell without a trial. She will improve markedly and is definitely worth an eachway gamble. My Sister Lil looks the best of the rest and will improve as the distances increase while Deb's Delight was flying last start and Lucy Warwick copped a suspension trying to get her off the fence when giving Pike the don't aruge at the 150. Pretty keen on Hussy By Choice - Cool Trade Quinella.
1. HUSSY BY CHOICE - 2. COOL TRADE - 7. MY SISTER LIL
SUGGESTED BET - 1. HUSSY BY CHOICE $40 x $40
razor, IronMike likes this post.
The Pontiff made a rare error in judgement when deciding to cross back inside in the Fairetha and was continually blocked for running as Outlaw Pete attempted to leap frog over the back of runners. Has an electric turn of foot and is an extremely exciting galloper. On October 18 both Outlaw Pete and Disposition ran at Ascot over 1200m with Outlaw Pete clocking a remarkable 33.85 final 600 and Disposition a 34.94 to win the Belgravia by 2.3 lengths. With open running and a hot top end speed behind Furious Dame I think he can turn the tables on the short priced favourite. Disposition is undefeated after 4 and will almost certainly run favourite in the Kingston Town should he win this. Interestingly only 1.35% of races this season at Ascot have been won from barrier 2 so he will be looking to buck the trend. Tonto is another classy gelding and is much better suited over a mile. Barrier 1 always concerns me however he has won from that gate before.
5. OUTLAW PETE - 1. DISPOSITION - 4. TONTO
SUGGESTED BET - 5. OUTLAW PETE $10 x $30
This race looks to be run between the superior Eastern States form horses in Angelic Light and Moment of Change. Moment of Change was super unlucky in last years edition of the Winterbottom when nosed out by Buffering. Finished 0.8 lengths eighth behind Lankan Rupee in the Group 1 Manikato at Mooney Valley where Angelic Light finished within a nose. I've got a leaning towards Angelic Light. Damien Oliver aboard, barrier 5, 7 top three finishes from 8 starts at 1200m and finished within a length of the winner at her past 6. Moment of Change the obvious danger and Shining Knight the best of the WA horses. Testamezzo is a horse on the rise while Magnifisio was dealt a bitter blow at the barrier draw. Cracking sprint but Oliver on top.
13. ANGELIC LIGHT - 1. MOMENT OF CHANGE - 6. SHINING KNIGHT
SUGGESTED BET - 13. ANGELIC LIGHT $40
I would encourage all on course to participate in The Cleaner drinking game. Anytime Darren mentions anything to do with "the people's horse", "rags to riches", "Longford Lion" or a relation between Bass Strait and The Cleaner, you drink. When he hits the front, you drink. If he corners infront, you drink. If he wins, you're going to need a taxi. I'm happy to go with the masterclass that is Adam Durrant and Mr Moet. Coming off the same preparation that won him the 2012 Railway Stakes he will attack the race first-up with a very cosy 55.5kg, blinkers on and the Pontiff aboard. Ticks enough boxes for an eachway flutter. Elite Belle was unsuited by a slow tempo in the Lee Steere, she will improve lengths and be low flying down the middle of the track late. It'd be unaustralian not to throw The Cleaner in for third after all he is "the people's horse" and I just earnt myself a frothy. Game on.
5. MR MOET - 7. ELITE BELLE - 1. THE CLEANER
therealkramer, RIO, razor, notapunta, Legless, loco, Gray likes this post.
If you're looking for a sure thing in the last as a Get Out then I'd probably suggest the Red Dog at Dubbo because this is a nightmare. Pop Culture won stylishly last start at $41 and conceeds most runners 3kg this time in as a result. 15 of the runners have come from the same race which was ripped open by Rebelson who simply ran most of them off their legs and probably highlighted a few WA tactical flaws. I'm going to have a stab and go with Lucciola. Was run off her feet first-up when drawing barrier 15 and attempting to keep up with Rebelson, drawn beautifully in barrier 1 here I think Dom Tourneur can position up perfectly behind the speed and get the softest of runs. Kirov Boy was a cracking run in the Gold Cup when wide throughout and unable to make a customary Danny Miller mid-race move, again drawn awkwardly expect him to be thrown into the race at the 1000. Classique Ivory is probably going better than numerical form suggests. He is all class and can improve sharply at big odds. Better chance of getting a date than picking a winner in race 9.
11. LUCCIOLA (IRE) - 10. KIROV BOY - 5. CLASSIQUE IVORY (NZ)
RIO, Darkhorse likes this post.
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My quaddie
Disposition /Tonto /Rommel
MOC
TC
FD
84 bucks 200 per cent
Bfacey77 likes this post.
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Jordan, RIO, carey, hash likes this post.
;)
H-BOMBER likes this post.
Ningbo
Nardini
Fulds Bet
Real love
Hussey by Choice (Swap Ya each way at $26)
Outlaw Pete (Keysbrook is massive at $51)
Angelic light
Mr Moet
Strike the Stars
Best
Real love/Angelic Light
Roughies
Mr Moet/Strike the Stars
Quaddie
1-5 (13-14)
1-13 (6-12)
1-5-14-16 (7-13)
2-4-7-10-13-14
Best of luck!!!
For me best bets ew all ups
Dickey
Nitro
Temporise
Hobart Jones
Crown Lawyer
Madam Sass
Moment of Change
The Cleaner/Almas Fury is wayyy overs /Respondent best local
Rebel Son best of the day the get out bet
H-BOMBER likes this post.
octavius likes this post.
It's a little too easy to be honest
jazza, Bfacey77, H-BOMBER, Legless likes this post.
Earlier in the week i would've said something similar to IM, but i reckon he should go back and Paddy will have him coiled up and ready to go this time..any horse that can get the last 600 at Ascot in sub 34. is a good horse... Should be a good pace set by New Time, Express Service, Miss D, Kheleva and even Crown Lawyer may come screaming across for the lead....
Think he deserves to be second fav and it should be fought out be those 2 flying down the middle with 200 to go!!!! If he gets onto the straight before Real Love i don't reckon Real Love will run past him..
Then again Pikey may go for a short cut through the pack!!!!
BlacksAFake, trevydards likes this post.
Maybe Kalgoorlie has him and he doesn't even know? 8-X
loco, BlacksAFake likes this post.
>:)
Your thoughts gentlemen???
Real Love looks a special load up job
Outlaw Pete and save using Disposition in Multis
Moment of Change
Hussy By Choice/ Nightingale Rd
Fulds Bet
Mr Moet/ Respondent
A good day to all and good luck
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grandstandjockeys dislikes this post.
Back markers will do it tough if the dr was in then yeah swoopers
After race 3 you should get a good guide
week before at 6m
week before at 3m
to my way of working things out, that means there will be a track at 3m and a bit of one at 6m. So i feel the on pace runners will be most advantaged by the track and that is the way it will play out in the first 3 races. So these races may not be a good guide to the races with the better quality horses.
From race 4 onwards i reckon as long as the back markers are moving forward before the corner they wont get pushed outside the 3-8m track and should be able to make ground easier. Especially as there will be a few plodders in the first 3 races going up and down on the one spot in that 3-8m track, firming it up for the rest of the day.
Front runners and on pace runners in the first 3 races, swoopers in it from race 4 onwards... IFFFF they are going forward before they hit the straight!!!!
RIO likes this post.