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Belmont Preview, 3rd Sep 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Little Creatures Maiden - Scott Embry
This should be eachway odds the field with the favourites sitting around $5.50 in my opinion. There are no incredibly strong form lines or references to pick from and most of the 'fancied' chances are all drawn awkwardly making it hard to pin point a winner and make for an intriguing start to Saturday's 9 event card. After much head scratching I have again settled on Keep Flame Alive for in-form hoop Jarad Noske and young Gelorup trainer Ashlea Stelmach. The run of Keep Flame Alive at Pinjarra from barrier 15 was enormous sitting three and four deep throughout. If Noske can get a tow into the race with cover then she will be there at the finish. Vandalago drops from 2200m back to 1400m and into a maiden race for the first time in his last 4 runs. Effort beaten 3 lengths Mosseratti was full of merit as was his fast finishing second to War Ksar. Lone Sailor was just grinding through the ground on debut when hitting a heavy8 rated track, with the sun out he can improve lengths and probably deserves favouritism. Both Emergencies Licabull and Three Oh Three are over the odds if they gain starts and worth including in all novelties.
14. KEEP FLAME ALIVE - 2. VANDALAGO - 7. LONE SAILOR
This should be eachway odds the field with the favourites sitting around $5.50 in my opinion. There are no incredibly strong form lines or references to pick from and most of the 'fancied' chances are all drawn awkwardly making it hard to pin point a winner and make for an intriguing start to Saturday's 9 event card. After much head scratching I have again settled on Keep Flame Alive for in-form hoop Jarad Noske and young Gelorup trainer Ashlea Stelmach. The run of Keep Flame Alive at Pinjarra from barrier 15 was enormous sitting three and four deep throughout. If Noske can get a tow into the race with cover then she will be there at the finish. Vandalago drops from 2200m back to 1400m and into a maiden race for the first time in his last 4 runs. Effort beaten 3 lengths Mosseratti was full of merit as was his fast finishing second to War Ksar. Lone Sailor was just grinding through the ground on debut when hitting a heavy8 rated track, with the sun out he can improve lengths and probably deserves favouritism. Both Emergencies Licabull and Three Oh Three are over the odds if they gain starts and worth including in all novelties.
14. KEEP FLAME ALIVE - 2. VANDALAGO - 7. LONE SAILOR
Comments
Best each way TFO. Straight out the other 2.
Had my free punta bet on three oh three on the first. I really like the maiden idea to start the day, nice challenge to start proceedings
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This 1400m Three Year old event is very evenly graded and while I have selected Kimbo's Girl on top I think she is incredibly short in the market and is definitely not a betting proposition. From barrier 4 Jason Whiting should comfortably find the top and from there will be hard to beat. First-up run when finding market support beaten 1.5 The Celt was encouraging and she looks a filly who will stretch out over further. Three last start winners coming from Maiden company, Where's Wally, Lord Ludlow and Magic Las Vegas, all look to have their work cut out against a pretty handy little Saturday field. Burning Magic is still a maiden however has run placings behind Get Over It and Rich Red. Nightwatchman is very well weighted on the 54kg minimum for Morton stable apprentice Sarah Bonner and will be looking to zap them down the middle of the straight. Where's Wally's debut win was emphatic, however, Kingdom and Empire who pushed him to the line was only fair in a Northam Maiden on Thursday. A sit and watch race for me.
9. KIMBO'S GIRL - 8. BURNING MAGIC - 1. NIGHTWATCHMAN
Sweet Ora again looks incredibly hard to beat on paper. Must conceed Dainty Tess 2.5kg from their last start encounter a fortnight ago where Sweet Ora only just held on by a shortneck, however, with the barrier draw I anticipate Dainty Tess will find herself back in the field. Going to suggest that new-comer Snow Lord will take up the running and be the front runner with Dainty Tess eased into the field from the wide barrier in an attempt to find the back of Sweet Ora in running. From there Pike will have the first crack at the debutant down the straight and I think race fitness and experience will prevail. Snow Lord can put on a good showing on debut, especially if Smith can find the front. Quest To Venus was one I threw up on debut in midweek company and gave backers a great sight when backed from 60-1 into 17s on track and hit the line hard to finish second behind Simon Miller's impressive 3 year old Badge of Courage. From barrier 2 Ryan 'Boy' Hill can settle just behind the pace and run into the money. Dainty Tess is weighted to be ultra competitive but the question marks surround where she will get in running.
4. SWEET ORA - 7. SNOW LORD - 9. QUEST TO VENUS
SUGGESTED BET - 4. SWEET ORA $100
There is an incredible abundance of speed engaged in this 1000m Dash for Cash with Travinator, Rebel King, Benito, Cool Passion and Hot Goods all blessed with blistering gate speed. From the barriers I would expect Hot Goods to take up the running with Benito to her outside. With Travinator, Rebel King and King of the Palace all keen to take up a spot in running just behind Hot Goods expect to see Cool Passion caught three deep throughout with Lucy happy to hand up and gradually work Cool Passion into the race. She proved in June that she doesn't need to lead to win races and can do the work at both ends, however, if she is forced to punch the breeze three wide throughout as expected on paper then will be a sitting duck to be knocked off late. King of the Palace arguably should have beaten Hot Goods last start and gets a 2kg weight swing for a long head defeat. Drawn beautifully in barrier 2 if CJP can get splits between tiring leader late he will be hard to hold out and represents great eachway value, places heavy. Cool Passion is yet to miss the money in 10 starts, huge respect. Black Dynamite back to 1000m after a disappointment.
3. KING OF THE PALACE - 6. COOL PASSION - 7. BLACK DYNAMITE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. KING OF THE PALACE $10 x $40
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Keen to play two horses here as a bracket winning selection, Baraki Beats at around $4.80 and The Forgotten One at $9. Both are eachway propositions and I will play both of them with the hope that one can get the job done in race 5. Baraki Beats is a frustrating enigma with more gear than a 60s hippie who can miss the kick, lay out, pull and just generally be an average bloke of a horse. That being said I think drawn barrier 10 he can gradually work his way to the top and without a lot of exposed speed on paper I think he can lead and control. From there Aaron Mitchell is in the box seat and he is a very good judge of speed having pilotted a similar type horse in Muskets At Dawn to a number of front-running victories. The Forgotten One was held up for the entire length of the straight last start and drawn wide will be allowed to ease back into the field and work through his gears. If he can produce a similar run to last start but get more luck down the home stretch then he will be the one to hold out. Falcon Crest is gunning for a winning hat-trick but rises 3kg on his last start win conceeding 4kg to Baraki Beats and 2kg to The Forgotten One.
2. BARAKI BEATS - 6. THE FORGOTTEN ONE - 3. FALCON CREST
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It's no secret that Operational has been a horse of mine for a number of years and his run of outs now stretches 805 days but there are a number of reasons I am making a case for one last crack at him. He carries only 56.5kg contesting 66+ grade for the first time since 2013, has Clint Johnson-Porter the state's leading apprentice aboard in the apprentices cup, drawn to get a lovely run midfield from barrier 8 and has blinkers added to race gear. Operational has won fifth up on three separate occasions and all 9 victories are when wearing blinkers. If he is going to win another race before retirement then it is on Saturday. At $21 eachway I am more than happy to have one last go. Dust Me Off should get the run of the race from barrier 2 and is in impecable form. Ready To Fire is the best weighted horse of the class droppers meeting Verdello Blue and Dust Me Off considerably better at the weights from their July 30th and August 6th clashes. Saxapak carries only 51kg of Shelby Colgate and can settle in the box seat up on speed. Expect a genuine tempo with Verdello Blue, I Done It, Midnight Banquet and Saxapak all likely to roll forward.
3. OPERATIONAL - 2. DUST ME OFF - 4. READY TO FIRE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. OPERATIONAL $10 x $40
Juendis is the favourite for race 7 however has come up at around the $4.60 mark which for a galloper carrying 55.5kg, second-up from a spell who is yet to miss the money at 1000m in his career looks to be a very handy eachway investment. Stablemate Travellin' ran third behind Pop Hero and Juendis in that race and came out on Wednesday to record a dominant win. From the gun barrier I think Juendis appeals as one of the better bets on the card. Roger the Roman drops back to 62+ grade after finding the likes of Black Dynamite and Hot Goods a bit sharp in the 72+ range. Last start run was better than it reads on paper when tracking four and five wide round the corner and being struck on the nose by the whip of Tayla Stone and $16 eachway looks attractive. Ripper Red resumes first-up after being scratched from Saturday. The fact there has been no rain since Wednesday morning helps his chances greatly and if Jordan Turner can part the seas and get a run through the middle of the field he will be incredibly hard to hold out. Has mountains of ability but his racing pattern makes it tough to catch him.
8. JUENDIS - 3. ROGER THE ROMAN - 17. RIPPER RED
SUGGESTED BET - 8. JUENDIS $50 x $50
Another eachway all day proposition in race 8 with It's It dropping back to 1200m off a month's freshen up. W.Pike to ride and mapped to get a lovely run throughout behind the frenetic top end speed care of Furious Dame. It's It has placings behind Vega Magic, Socialy Unique and Django some of the strongest 72+ formlines of last season. The fact he is yet to win after 8 starts at Belmont park is a slight concern however I have faith in WA's premier reignsman William Pike to get the job done. He may have to tow the field up to a tiring Furious Dame, as did Conseated last start, and while that makes the job difficult it also means that It's It will get the first crack at trying to run the fleet footed Furious Dame down. Furious Dame drops 2.5kg on her last start victory and for a horse who will almost 100% lead down past the 100m mark $2.90 the place looks a value investment. Max Almighty will savage the line as he did to win last start. Carbery will likely try to cut the corner in an attempt to save ground but runs the risk of finding traffic. Much like Furious Dame-Conseated then Furious Dame-It's It Quinella looks a cheeky chance.
10. IT'S IT - 7. FURIOUS DAME - 3. MAX ALMIGHTY
SUGGESTED BET - 10. IT'S IT $50 x $50
This race is much deeper than just Chocolate Holic vs Pounamu. This is lightyears tougher for Chocolate Holic than recent assignments, drawn barrier 10, rising in grade and meeting a full field of 16 horses. Pounamu was a good thing beaten first-up and drawn the outside may just be a blessing in disguise. There is no excuse whatsoever for Pounamu to get held up, he should be the grey galloper rocketting down the middle of the Belmont Park track at 5pm and get his chance to win. Only question remains, how many lengths will he have to conceed the leaders as they round the corner. I have settled on two at eachway odds for quaddie inclusion who I think can test the two short priced favourites. Grey Enigma who should get the run of the race from barrier 1 behind stablemate and likely leader Right Honourable. Form around Socially Unique, Gigante and Django is good enough to test these. Countercat was excellent last start behind Royal Supreme, gets a 3.5kg weight swing on Chocolate Holic for a 3 length defeat which coupled with the barrier draw should make things interesting. PTT Quad: 2,3,4,8,9,14 / 3,7,8,17 / 3,7,10 / 2,4,5,6,10 - $100 = 28%
5. GREY ENIGMA - 10. COUNTERCAT - 4. POUNAMU
sometimes it is fine, sometimes crapola.
no data cleaning for 2 years will make my data questionable, and thus the prices
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The $6 for Charlestown looks tasty and I think your getting the big price due to the jockey.... throw LW on and it'd be less than 5's
no idea if it will measure up over here or not though.
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I think Sara will ride it well as is the most promising 3kg apprentice
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trevydards, paraletic, Chelsea, thefalcon, rustyh likes this post.
it won after i got off it as is always the case , maybe it was my money that was jinxing the horse
it won after i got off it as is always the case , maybe it was my money that was jinxing the horse
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hash, rustyh likes this post.
yep girl can ride, got out to as much as $9 at the death on BF and I didn't have a cent on X(
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finally gives me a chance to have a city winner for the first time in years!!!
they ran top 8 all females in the race finished ahead of the fellas (the other girl in the field finished 11th) the boys were too busy staring at the booty in front of them and lost concentration mid race... nice gesture from them nonetheless, as they say ladies first :D