In this Discussion
- Bucks September 2016
- dungy September 2016
- Godd September 2016
- H-BOMBER September 2016
- Legless September 2016
- PerthTurfTalk September 2016
- RIO September 2016
- SLIPPERGOLDEN September 2016
- spinking September 2016
- thefalcon September 2016
- therealkramer September 2016
Belmont Preview, 10th Sep 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Schweppes Plate - Scott Embry
I think this race is definitely deeper than just the two equal favourites in Speeding Comet and Elegant Blast. They hold a mortgage over the market percentage and on form are deserving favourites, however, I think there is more to this race than meets the eye on first glance. Next Generation pushed Sweet Ora to within a longneck last Saturday and on the weeks back-up and stepping up to 1200m looks suited. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 7 but can definitely figure in the finish. Nashville Cat was always going to be suited over further than 1000m on debut and yet got the job done with absolute ease, streaking away to win by 1.8 lengths. Elegant Blast is undefeated after 2 runs and resumes for the powerful first-up stable of JT Warwick. Headed most likely towards a Champion Fillies campaign she may not be fully wound up yet but would go close on sheer ability. Speeding Comet should lead or box seat from the inside barrier and is the one to run down. It's a no bet for me to start the day.
1. NEXT GENERATION - 8. NASHVILLE CAT - 4. ELEGANT BLAST
I think this race is definitely deeper than just the two equal favourites in Speeding Comet and Elegant Blast. They hold a mortgage over the market percentage and on form are deserving favourites, however, I think there is more to this race than meets the eye on first glance. Next Generation pushed Sweet Ora to within a longneck last Saturday and on the weeks back-up and stepping up to 1200m looks suited. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 7 but can definitely figure in the finish. Nashville Cat was always going to be suited over further than 1000m on debut and yet got the job done with absolute ease, streaking away to win by 1.8 lengths. Elegant Blast is undefeated after 2 runs and resumes for the powerful first-up stable of JT Warwick. Headed most likely towards a Champion Fillies campaign she may not be fully wound up yet but would go close on sheer ability. Speeding Comet should lead or box seat from the inside barrier and is the one to run down. It's a no bet for me to start the day.
1. NEXT GENERATION - 8. NASHVILLE CAT - 4. ELEGANT BLAST
Comments
On a places heavy eachway investment I think Foxinator is a great way to play this evenly graded 1200m maiden. Drawn perfectly for the first time in a couple of runs after contending with barriers 13 and 12 at its last two starts gets a luxurious run from gate 3 here and Randy Tan has the choice of either box seating or even taking up the lead. Beaten a nose on two occasions already this preparation I think at $17 eachway he is the play. Pierian was first up after an 18 month lay off and should improve ten fold off that run. Cheap Express was three wide the trip behind Luke's Gold and Someday One Day last Wednesday and can run home into the money. Miss Iconic is drawn in barrier 12 which could make it hard for her to find the front. She has gone down as a beaten favourite at 4 of her 5 career starts so favourite punters beware! Gravy was solid first-up down the Pinjarra straight and then bitterly disappointing second up, he is better than that.
1. FOXINATOR - 5. PIERIAN - 13. CHEAP EXPRESS
SUGGESTED BET - 1. FOXINATOR $10 x $40
Very keen on the chances of Pretentious Chant in race 3. His effortless victory over Presentatie and Brisanto at Belmont Park over 1200m in June was simply outstanding before tackling the Belmont Guineas where he pulled the entire trip and was entitled to tail off last. Has been freshened since then and returns to 1200m, drawn perfectly in barrier 1 he will be very hard to beat. There looks a notable lack of speed in the race apart from potentially She Rules All so Turner can elect to either take up the running or box seat, should enjoy the run of the race either way and go close to making it 3 wins from 8 starts. Patrimonio gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Travellin' after a somewhat luckless run last start, caught up in traffic while Travellin' was able to build momentum closer to the speed. He can definitely turn the tables on the Jim Taylor trained galloper. Both Travellin' and Crusoe enjoyed similar runs last start and should again finish side by side. Hopefully that is on the heels of a victorious Pretentious Chant. Throw Danehill Matilda into your first fours as a value play returning from the North West dirt.
3. PRETENTIOUS CHANT - 5. PATRIMONIO - 2. TRAVELLIN'
SUGGESTED BET - 3. PRETENTIOUS CHANT $100
Baraki Beats is become a very costly proposition for any loyal followers so far this campaign. Luckily enough for me I have only had one crack at him and that was last week when again knocked off by Falcon Crest. Backing up here off 7 days I think Baraki Beats will finally get his chance to record a victory this preparation, and a well deserved one at that. Dance Master could be looking to give the Troy Turner/Gavin Foster camp a race to race double if Pretentious Chant can get the job done and his last start win was electric. Powered over the top of rivals to win by 1.5 lengths running away. This is a clear step up in class and he will again need to come from last to win. Proxy is another who will head back in the field but was savaging the line fresh off a 4 month let up. If there is any rain around that will only enhance his chances second-up. All Too Much is running extremely consistently, however, my biggest concern is the fact no jockey will stick with him. Carbery, Turner, Noske and now Knuckey aboard for this first ride.
2. BARAKI BEATS - 4. DANCE MASTER - 9. PROXY
SUGGESTED BET - 2. BARAKI BEATS $50 x $50
Material Man may not be suited drawing the inside barrier but he could not have been more impressive winning last start. A month between runs is also a slight concern but with the set up Justin Warwick has down at Myalup you can be certain that Material Man won't have lost any residual fitness. The winner of 6 from 8 starts was caught three and four wide in an 8 horse field down the back straight before rounding up opposition under hands and heels riding from Warwick. With the racing pattern of Fathoms of Gold who will likely begin to up the tempo and roll from the 800 Lucy should safely get off his back and enjoy clear running down the entire length of the home stretch and reel him in. Falcon Crest just keeps getting the job done, steps up to a suitable trip and drops in weight for W.Pike. If Lucy gets held up on the inside Pike will be the one with momentum coming through the three wide train. Fathoms of Gold the likely leader for noted front running hoop Mattiew Autier. Senso is the forgotten runner in the field and should enjoy a soft run in transit.
1. MATERIAL MAN - 5. FALCON CREST - 7. FATHOMS OF GOLD
SUGGESTED BET - 1. MATERIAL MAN $100
Hard to knock the form of Django who is gunning for a winning hat-trick. My concern last start was dropping back from 1300m to 1200m because I thought he might get too far back but jumped well, settled one out and one back and was never going to lose. Steps back up to 1300m here which looks picture perfect and as long as he can lump 58kg will go very close to winning again. Flying Roar looks the logical leader on paper and Jordan Turner has a great association with this on speed galloper, sure to be rated to perfection. Glitterbell is definitely one to include at odds, runs so far this preparation have been better than they read on paper and her run last week behind Chocolate Holic and Pounamu was eye catching. In the small field I think Autier can settle closer to the speed, potentially outside the leader and from there I think Glitterbell can run a big race at around 15-1. Spin Da Wheels has been in ultra consistent form and should enjoy the run of the race from barrier 1. Royal Supreme was a huge last to first winner last start but his previous form was only fair. Would like to see him reproduce that before I jump aboard.
1. DJANGO - 4. FLYING ROAR - 11. GLITTERBELL
SUGGESTED BET - 1. DJANGO $50 x $50
SunnyBoy likes this post.
Socially Unique really stands out on the page as the one to beat in this moderate Listed Event. With the trainers of Rock Magic and First Among Equals both electing to skip the 1400m feature it leaves headlined by a galloper like Socially Unique who is fresh off a 2 month break coming out of 72+ grade into Listed Company. That being said his recent wins have been electric and he definitely has the sharpest turn of foot in the race and is pilotted by WA's best of the best William Pike. He rode 5 winners last Saturday and has a book capable of reproducing a similar result this weekend. Definitely the one to beat and the way I will happily tip. Military Ruler is another tackling Listed grade for the first time, outside this realistic class level, however, this race looks suitable. Should position up on speed for Jordan Turner and give the exciting young apprentice a genuine crack at Listed success. Bedamijo is a 9 year old mare first-up but should enjoy every possible favour from the gun barrier for partner in crime Shaun O'Donnell. Red Ora has been nothing short of heinous so far this preparation, love to see him improve sharply.
8. SOCIALLY UNIQUE - 7. MILITARY RULER - 6. BEDAMIJO
SUGGESTED BET - 8. SOCIALLY UNIQUE $100
Looking towards the bottom of the page in the final event with American Star, Recoiled and Lockroy all appealing as the ones to beat. American Star was super impressive behind exciting Warwick galloper Amelia's Love when missing the kick, blundering, settling towards the back of the field and rattling home through traffic to finish second. I think from barrier 4 if he can jump safely for Knuckey American Star can lead and from there will be hard to run down. Recoiled is another who was slowly away from the barriers at his last start and found the line strongly behind Three Votes after meeting his fair share of market support. I am placing those two on top as a bracket winning selection and backing both. Lockroy has a myriad of gear changes for his second-up assignment. If he brings his Mooney Valley and Randwick form would go close. PTT Quad: 1,5,7 / 1,4,6,9,11 / 8 / 2,3,4,6,10,11,12 - $100 = 95%
12. AMERICAN STAR - 11. RECOILED - 10. LOCKROY
SUGGESTED BET - 12. AMERICAN STAR $20 x $30
SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.
jum, RIO likes this post.
RIO likes this post.
hash likes this post.
RIO, Ridersonthestorm33, spinking likes this post.
RIO, SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.
RIO, Winsumlosesum, spinking likes this post.
RIO likes this post.
^:)^ ^:)^ ^:)^ ^:)^
oh and
<:-P <:-P
Legless likes this post.
RIO, hash likes this post.
^:)^ ^:)^
Great covering bets slip - was alive in the quaddie and also had a fairly large multi alive - neither of them with let it slip #:-S
RIO, hash likes this post.
He tipped it early and plonked it =D>
Still think it should have been double figure odds
RIO likes this post.
Was a good win but Pearce horses struggle to win picket fences
bomber, great afternoon...thankyou...I am sure everybody enjoyed themselves and hope your cause made a buck or two.
re stocks...sadly my commission agent failed miserably....full of pi55 and wind like the barbers cat....lucky I didn't give him the whole lot...